My good friend Jim Shella has made his predictions for today’s primary, so I figured I would jump into the fray.  However, like a good attorney, I always hedge my bets.  My predictions are based on numerous calls across the state today as well as everything we’ve seen so far.  These are for entertainment purposes only.  :-)

• U.S. Senate – Richard Mourdock by 5-7 or Richard Lugar by 1-2.  (This will really depend on how good Lugar’s GOTV efforts are today, especially in the doughnut counties.  How’s that for hedge betting?)
• 5th CD –  Too close to call, but I would not be surprised to see a John McGoff or Susan Brooks win.   The voter/residency issue has hit David McIntosh pretty hard in the last three weeks.
• 6th CD – Luke Messer.  If Travis Hankins wins, all political hell will break lose.
• 8th CD – Larry Buschon.  There had been some talk that tea party challenger Kristi Risk might pull off an upset, but she appears to have fallen off the radar screen.
• House District 37 -Todd Huston, but Debbie Driskell comes close.
• House District 91 – Bob Behning.
• House District 92 – Tim Motsinger, because of local party ground game.
• Senate District 35 – Toss up.  Mike Young (who I admit I am not a big fan of) has the joy of incumbency.  However, challenger Dan Kinnamon has been working like crazy and the district is split evenly between Hendricks and Marion County.

Friday was not a very good day for Indiana’s senior United States Senator.  And while many are drafting Richard Lugar’s political obituary, rumors of his imminent demise may be slightly exaggerated.

A poll by Howey Politics Indiana and DePauw University had the incumbent trailing his opponent, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock by 10-points, 48-38; definitely not the place you want to be a few days before an election.   The anti-Lugar folks smell blood in the water and rallied on Saturday in Indianapolis in preparing for their march to victory.

Luckily for the incumbent, there are still a few items out there that can allow him to squeak out a victory, there isn’t a whole lot of room for error though.  In fact, the best analogy I can use is the closing scene in Star Wars, where Luke Skywalker is flying down the Death Star canyon and Darth Vader and two Imperial Tie Fighters are in hot pursuit.

Although Lugar trails by 10-points, Moudock leads 37-30 amongst those who say they will definitely vote for either candidate.  That means nearly 23% can change their mind between now and primary day.  What’s also worth noting is that 97% of those surveyed had not voted yet.  This is crucial because in order for Lugar to be successful, he has to build that firewall of early voters.  When I did my last analysis of early voters (remember this is part art/part science) there were about 22,000 early vote ballots turned in.  About 33% were identified as Lugar supporters and 18% Mourdock.  The rest couldn’t be identified. However, I have been able to gather that about 20% of the early absentee voters have never voted in a GOP primary.

In addition, the Lugar camp is making about 70,000 phone calls this weekend, not only making sure they reach their audience, but also non-traditional Republican primary voters.   This is important because the Howey poll shows Mourdock runs not only strong among ideological conservatives, which are typical primary voters, but more than 80% of the people supporting Mourdock are doing it because they have an issue with the incumbent, i.e. been in office too long, dislike him, don’t think he’s conservative enough.    If he can build that firewall, he will likely survive, not by much, but he can squeak out a win.

As I stated earlier, these last few hours will be political life or death for the Senator.   And if I may amend my Star Wars analogy, not only is Lugar flying down the Death Star canyon being pursued by Vader and the Imperial Tie Fighters, but Han Solo and Chewbacca won’t be coming back to save the day.  We’ll see Tuesday evening if the force was with him.

I’m finishing up some teaching commitments today, but Brian Howey and DePauw University have the latest in the Lugar-Mourdock race. I’ve reprinted their news released with the latest polling data.  I’ll have some perspective this weekend.

********

INDIANAPOLIS – U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar’s iconic career of elected public service appears to be in great jeopardy. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted Monday and Tuesday shows that Lugar is trailing Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock 48-38% in Indiana’s Republican Senate primary. That head-to-head figure includes so-called “leaners,” who could conceivably change their minds in the final 72 hours of the campaign. Without the leans, Mourdock still leads 43-35%.

Based on this survey data, Howey Politics Indiana is moving the Senate race into a “Leans Mourdock” category. It had been “Leans Lugar” until the March 26-28 Howey/DePauw survey had Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, at which time HPI moved the Senate race into “Tossup.”

The survey, conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, is based on 700 likely voters with a +/- margin of error at 3.7%. The sample was made up of 76% Republicans, 14% independent, 8% independent/lean Republican, 1% lean Democrat and 1% independent/lean Democrat. Survey top lines will be posted under the “Howey/DePauw Poll” tab at www.howeypolitics.com.

And it appears to be a confirmation of a Tea Party mantra that a single challenger to Lugar would consolidate their support, with the incumbent getting about 39% of the “establishment” Republican vote – the percentage that U.S. Sen. Dan Coats won in the 2010 Republican primary against four other candidates. Hoosiers for a Conservative Senate, spearheaded by Tea Party activist Monica Boyer of Warsaw and Greg Fettig of Noblesville, engineered a Tea Party endorsement of Mourdock on Sept. 24, 2011 in Greenfield, and helped keep the field constricted to the treasurer, who was coming off a million vote reelection campaign in 2010.

Yang observed, “Back in January 2011, I conducted a statewide survey on behalf of Chairman Dan Parker for the Indiana Democratic Party, and I found a surprising result in one of our questions: Richard Lugar had a 28% reelect to another term score, and fully 56% wanted to make a change and elect someone else, and this result was among Republican voters. Thus, the findings of that poll made clear that Senator Lugar was vulnerable to a single challenger in a Republican primary.  And that’s exactly what has seemed to transpire.”

Among Republicans, Mourdock has a 51-36% lead, and among the 44% of the Republican sample who called themselves “very conservative,” Mourdock leads 63-26%.

Should this trend continue through Tuesday’s Republican primary, Mourdock will have pulled off one of the greatest upsets in modern Indiana history. Yang suggested that the final results may not be close.

But it will hardly be an isolated event. Over the past decade, Hoosier voters have had a vivid propensity to change parties, throw out incumbents, including powerful, iconic ones. This includes a sitting governor, two of the most powerful legislators in state history in Republican primaries, five sitting U.S. Congressmen, the East Chicago mayor who led the Lake County Democratic machine, and in the 2007 municipal elections, 40% of incumbent mayors, including Bart Peterson of Indianapolis. In 2010, sensing the destabilized political environment, U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh abruptly announced his retirement just prior to the primary filing deadline, setting off a disastrous series of defeats for Indiana Democrats, including a dramatic erosion of the party’s Southern Indiana base where “heritage” Indiana House and Senate seats held for decades by the party went Republican.

Those supporting Lugar included 24% who liked his experience, 21% who said he was doing a good job, 16% cited his “good record,” and at 6% each cited “just like him,” “dislike Moudock,” while at 5% others cited his “seniority,” “foreign policy” and Mourdock’s “negative campaign.”

The Lugar/Mourdock race essentially became a referendum on the former and this time tenure and legacy appears to have become a millstone. When Howey/DePauw asked “over the past week or two, has your opinion of Richard Lugar become less favorable,” 32% said yes, while 12% said their opinion became more favorable. Clearly, the stately Lugar’s campaign going negative had repercussions. Lugar’s hard favorable/unfavorables were both at 43%, while Mourdock’s stood at 47/25%. And cross tabulations show Lugar lost support in Indianapolis, his hometown.

“While the Tea Party and other national groups got into this race because of what they consider to be Lugar’s liberal transgressions, it appears that a bigger issue for GOP primary voters is simply his longevity,” said Matthews. “It is a very difficult environment to be running as a 35 year incumbent.”

Matthews added: A plurality (44%) of primary voters identifies themselves as “very conservative” and, not surprisingly, they overwhelmingly favor Mr. Mourdock (63%-26%). So the balance of the electorate is somewhat conservative (33%) or moderate (19%) and, to win, Mr. Lugar would have to dominate among these voters. The problem for Senator Lugar, is that Mr. Mourdock is also winning the less conservative voters (43%-41%), so that the senator carries only moderate voters (60%-26%).

When pollsters Yang and Matthews asked: “Which statement better describes your view?” – 60% responded to “I want a U.S. Senator to focus first on trying to solve our country’s many problems, even if that means working with elected officials across the aisle to do it.” And 33% responded to “I want a U.S. senator to focus first on standing up for conservative principles even if that means not working with elected officials across the aisle to solve problems.” The first question would appear to have fit a description of Lugar; the second, Mourdock.

On a second issue question pertaining the DREAM Act, which has been vociferously opposed by the Tea Party and Mourdock, the pollsters asked: “Do you support or oppose allowing the children of illegal immigrants who graduate from high school and have no criminal record and serve in the U.S. military or attend college a path of full U.S. citizenship.” Again, the response would seem to favor Lugar: 22% said they “strongly supported” that; 32% said “somewhat support” while just 13% said they “somewhat oppose” and 19% “strongly opposed.” The aggregate on that question was 54% supporting and 32% opposing. Again, such a stance on the issue would appear to have played into Lugar’s wheelhouse.

But what should be troubling for Mourdock in victory is a fractured Republican Party. Among Republicans supporting Lugar, 12% had a favorable opinion of Mourdock and 57% had a negative opinion. Yang observed, “If Joe Donnelly can get 15% of the Republican vote, split the independents, that’s how Frank O’Bannon defeated Stephen Goldsmith.”

Value of endorsement

When the pollsters asked whether an endorsement would make them more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate. Here’s how that broke down:

More likely       Less likely

Gov. Mitch Daniels   49% 18%

State/national Tea Party   37% 20%

State/national business groups   29% 17%

National Rifle Association   46% 13%

Indiana Right to Life   51% 12%

Club for Growth   8% 17%

Sarah Palin 32%

I am out of town today and tomorrow, so I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to turn the floor over to you and allow you to make a prediction or two for next week’s primary.  Here are your picks.

• U.S. Senate Republican  Primary
• 5th CD Republican Primary
• 6th CD Republican Primary
• 8th CD Republican Primary
• House District 37, GOP Primary
• House District 92, GOP Primary

You can also do vote percentages as well turnout.  I’ll be back on Friday, Brian Howey and DePauw University will be unveiling their second poll in the U.S. Senate race, and the only independent poll as well.

Marion County early voting is down nearly 30% in the 2012 primary as compared to 2008.

According to the Marion County Clerk’s Office,a s of 3:30 Monday afternoon there have been 6,556 requests for absentee ballots this primary as opposed to 9,558 in 2012.  However in areas where there are hotly contested races, i.e. the 5th Congressional District or State House District 92, the vote totals appear higher than other places in the County.

Below is a breakdown of the ballot requests…

• Center – 1077
• Decatur – 136
• Franklin – 411
• Lawrence – 966
• Perry – 732
• Pike – 751
• Warren – 662
• Washington – 1518
• Wayne – 842

I’ll will have new early statewide absentee ballot requests later today and will post that information when it becomes available.

I was getting a little burnt out on the upcoming May primary and have been looking for something else to write about.  And then, like manna from heaven, I was looking at the Indianapolis Star’s website and found that the Indianapolis City-County Council Democrats are seriously looking at wasting more than $180,000 of the taxpayers’ money on a redistricting plan.  The gods have smiled upon me this morning.

According to my colleague Jon Murray the plan is simple.  County Auditor Billie Breaux’s office “found” $180,000 in her budget which she will give back to the general fund and will get reimbursed from another fund.  The Dems will take that money, hold public hearings and draw new maps.  Now of course this also assumes, rather foolishly, that the Mayor would sign the appropriation and then the new maps.

Democrats have complained that there wasn’t enough time for public input on the new maps when they were drawn by election attorney David Brooks.  There were several hearings on the new maps, and the public, that cared, either showed up or watched it on Channel 16.  And as a sidebar, there were only two people who attended every public hearing, Brooks and me.  There was nothing to indicate that the maps didn’t meet the state and federal rules regarding compactness, keeping together communities of interest and protecting minority voting rights, they don’t cross precinct boundaries, etc. etc. .  If anything, this map increased the chances for minority representation on the Council.  So unless Democrats want to take that away?   And the maps were signed into law in the second year after the census.  Ballard signed them the morning of January 1, as one of his last acts of his first term in office.   And the fact that the Democrats have launched this plan instead of filing suit tells me that the maps are perfectly legal, despite the protestations from the political peanut gallery.

So what is to be gained by this exercise, if it were to go through?  Nothing.  If they pass appropriation the Mayor will veto it.  And if by some chance they pass the new maps, the Mayor will veto it.  And the Council has yet to be able override a veto and I don’t think their luck will be any better with this one.  So, the people who have bemoaned the way the administration has spent money is possibly about to embark on a fool’s errand and reopen this redistricting can of worms.  I wonder if they’ll fly coach or first class?

A copy of the new maps can be found here.

I was out of town when the news broke that Dr. Frank Straub had turned in his resignation as Public Safety Director.  I was originally planning to scribble down a few thoughts, but I figured I’d voice them instead.

Frank Straub Commentary

The candidates for the 5th Congressional District met for what will likely be their last collective gathering at Ivy Tech Community College in Marion.

The forum ran on WBAT Radio in Marion.  It was divided into two parts.  The first part was individual interviews.  The  second part allowed candidates to pose questions to each via the moderator, yours truly.

You can hear audio from the debate here.    The debate also available on iTunes.

Now this isn’t something you see every day, but this Saturday Smoke Free Indy’s Lindsay Grace goes head to head with yours truly in a debate/discussion over smoking bans, particularly the one just signed by Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard.

Lindsay and I will appear on “Civil Discourse Now” an Internet web program hosted by Attorneys Mark Small and Paul Ogden.  It runs this Saturday at 11 a.m.  The stream will be live.

Knowing our respective positions on this issue, it should prove to be quite entertaining, if nothing else.

Hope you can catch it.

Most of the candidates running for the 5th Congressional District Republican primary will meet Wednesday night for another debate, but this one will have a twist that will make it different than all the previous encounters.  They will get to ask questions of each other.

The debate will take place from 6-8 p.m. at the Ivy Tech Campus in Marion and will be broadcast live 1400, WBAT-AM.  It’s being sponsored by WBAT, The Gary Snyder Show and IndyPolitics. Org. The forum will be hosted by Gary Snyder and moderated by yours truly.

Unlike other debates where a question is asked and the candidates down the line   giving 1-2 minute responses, this format will be different.  It will consist of two segments.  In the first segment each candidate will sit for an individual 6-8 minute interview with Indy Politics.  Part two will consist of a round-robin question and answer session with the candidates providing the questions for each other, asked by the moderator.

In addition to being broadcast, the debate will streamed at WBAT’s website as well as GarySnyderShow.com.  The debate will also be podcast on iTunes following the conclusion of the forum.

Editor’s Note: At the time of this publication, all the candidates have committed to appearing at the forum with the exception of David McIntosh who had a prior scheduling commitment.