With about six weeks to go before the Mayoral election, I found something pretty interesting; the role that numbers have played in this race.  When I say numbers, I mean statistics.  Whether it is crime, jobs, polling, it seems that numbers have had a much more noticeable role this time around than in previous races.   And what’s even more interesting is how the numbers change and the candidates have made subtle adjustments to adapt.

For example, in early Greg Ballard ads, the incumbent talked about how crime was down.  At the time it was.  However, the latest Indianapolis Metropolitan Police figures show crime, overall, is flat.  However murder is up 11% over last year,  from 72 to 80.  Now if you’re in the Melina Kennedy camp don’t get too excited.  Her commercials have been talking about how aggravated assaults are up, when in fact, according to those same figures assaults are down 11 percent.

Look at the job numbers.  In the beginning of the Mayor’s race all we heard was that the city lost 35,000 jobs since Ballard took office.  That number has changed.  Since January, the employed workforce has grown by nearly 27,000.  So that 35,000 number has now just turned into thousands of jobs.  Also when the Ballard folks talk about new jobs, you will notice the phrase is “job commitments”.

If crime and job stats aren’t enough, how about taxes and fees.  We hear a lot about the 140 or fees and taxes increased on small businesses, even though the Greater Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce played a role in those fee increases.   While Kennedy likes to focus on 140, Ballard’s number is 98, the percentage of the population that was paying for those services because the initial fees weren’t covering the costs.  Now the Mayor’s side says the two percent of the population that are using the services are actually paying the full cost of them.

Speaking of percentages, here’s a new number, 43.  Forty three is the percentage the of the tax increase the Mayor’s campaign folks say Melina Kennedy supported raising back in 2005 when the County Option Income tax was increased to 1 percent.

And finally, what are numbers without polling.  The Marion County Democratic Party released a poll showing the race statistically tied, however critics come back and say in a county where Democrats have an inherent 10-point lead over Republicans that number shows the challenger is having trouble.

You have to love this stuff.  And keep it in mind as the Mayoral debates get underway.   Of course the only real numbers that matter are the ones on Election Day; which by the way is 44 days away as I write this, 43 days when it gets published on the web.

I got a chance to watch this You Tube clip from Historic Indianapolis regarding the city’s plans to tear down a couple thousand abandoned homes.  Historic Indy opposes the plan, saying some of these homes should be rehabbed and sold to families.

I don’t know what world these people have been living in for the for the past few years, but have they met this economy? And do they remember how we got here?   Part of the reason these homes are abandoned is that we allowed people to buy homes who were never ready for home ownership to begin with and the properties ended up in foreclosure.

If Historic Indianapolis wants to save these homes maybe they should purchase them, do the rehab themselves and then sell them to “deserving families”.  Good luck with that one.  Typical.

If I didn’t put this you tube clip on here from the 2011 Greater Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce Hob Nob, you guys would think there was something wrong with me, other than the usual things you think are wrong with me.  So here you go.

Can you finish this sentence is three words or less, “Indianapolis is…”  I’ll be interested in reading the responses.

The nice thing about the 21st Century is that if I want a book I don’t have to run to a bookstore anymore and look for it. I picked up, or in this case, downloaded a copy of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels’ book, “Keeping the Republic; Saving America by Trusting Americans”. After finishing the book in one evening, I think I have a man-crush on the Governor, in a totally hetro kind of way.

As Daniels mentioned in interviews it isn’t a self-serving biography, but more about public service. And what’s ironic in the book is the Governor argues that the best way to serve the public is to get out of its way and whatever the government does do, it should enhance the ability of the public to create wealth and economic prosperity.

The Governor regales some tales from his tenure as governor, the leasing of the Toll Road, the Democratic walkout, the education reform debate, the controversy surrounding the Old Soldiers and Sailors home, etc. He also acknowledges mistakes made with modernizing FFSA and the BMV.

What’s most intriguing though is that if you know the Governor, nothing in the book will really surprise you. As I slid from page to page on my iPad, I could literally hear Mitch Daniels’ voice as I read the words. Some of the events I was actually there for and got a chuckle going down memory lane.

The Governor offers quite a few ideas on fixing the national economy, halting job crushing regulations, replacing the income tax with a national sales tax, replacing government benefits for the poor with a cash payment in the form of an NIT (Negative Income Tax) and acknowledging that this country cannot continue down this path. He also makes a point that I have been arguing my adult life, it’s hypocritical to show disdain for business and the wealth creating class when those are the very people you will need to fund the programs you want government to pay for.

Now to make you feel better, the book for me was not a total love fest. I disagreed with the Governor somewhat on his assessment on the War on Terror and I think he fails to acknowledge that his administration had to get a taste of a “legislative learning curve” when they first came into office in 2005. But overall, it’s a pretty good read.

Overall though, I think Daniels makes the point that it is not too late to save the country from the new “red menace” i.e. the national debt. And it doesn’t have to be all that difficult once we have made the decision to stop spending ourselves into oblivion. I highly recommend going out and buying a copy, or like in my case downloading it on your kindle or iPad.

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard this week released a new 30-second campaign commercial, entitled “Leadership at Work”.  The ad focuses on taxes, infrastructure and the economy.  You see the ad below. The ad is the Mayor’s fourth television commercial this campaign season.

Democratic challenger Melina Kennedy has released three television commercials to date. She is also running an ad on predominantly black radio encouraging citizens who are displeased with the Mayor, but not registered to vote to do so.

If you follow Marion County politics and the Mayor’s race, you’ve heard by now that Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy “released” poll results to supporters tonight showing the Mayor’s race a practical tie.  Here is the e-mail that went out.

S T R A T E G I C     M E M O R A N D U M

To:  Interested Parties

From:  Chairman Ed Treacy

Date:  September 22, 2011

Re:  Marion County Polling Results

---

Over the evenings of September 20-21, the Marion County Democratic Party conducted a survey of 403 likely voters in Marion County.  The research was conducted by Jim Riggs, Ph.D., of Riggs Research Services, a locally-based professional public opinion polling firm.  The sample was geographically and demographically representative.  The results came back this morning, and I wanted you to be the first to know the exciting news in the race for Indianapolis Mayor.

Forty-seven days before Election Day, Democratic nominee Melina Kennedy has overtaken Republican incumbent Greg Ballard. Weeks before outside observers anticipated, Kennedy has taken the lead and is only picking up her pace.  Conventional wisdom dictates that an incumbent below fifty-percent is in trouble.

We just got the results back and are still digesting them, but wanted to share with you the exciting news first.  Melina Kennedy now leads Greg Ballard 40-38. The full results are as follows:

The candidates in the upcoming election for Mayor of Indianapolis are Melina Kennedy, the Democrat, and Greg Ballard, the Republican.  For whom would you vote if the election was held today – Kennedy or Greg Ballard?  [If “Not Sure,” ASK:]  Well, which way do you lean at this time – Lean Kennedy or Lean Ballard? (N=403)

Response	N (Solid Support)
Democrat, Melina Kennedy	40 (38)
Republican, Greg Ballard	38 (36)
Don’t Know or Undecided	21

I am as excited as anyone about Melina’s lead.  But our work isn’t done yet.  While it is tempting to use these results to sit back and wait for Election Day, it is now that we must redouble our efforts.  Twenty-one percent of voters are still undecided.  We need to continue to aggressively get our message out to voters.

Would you consider donating $ 50, $ 100 or $ 250 dollars today? Click here to donate to the Marion County Democratic Party.

Democratically Yours,

Edward T. Treacy

Chairman

I think it’s fair to say that what you take from the poll depends on what you brought to it. But here are a few questions.

1. Why not release it to the media (cross tabs an all)  instead of supporters and really get some bang for you buck?

2. Why use a firm that by all accounts polls only for Democrats, i.e. Tom Hayhurst in the 3rd Congressional District in 2010 and Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight earlier this year?

3. I’m told frequently on this blog that Democrats in Marion County have a 10-point margin over Republicans, but this poll has them tied?

4. How do you reconcile this with the fact that Kennedy polled last week and her own results had her with a 12-point deficit?

5.  Why is Kennedy trying to rally black churches with a big meeting next Thursday at Friendship Baptist Church if her support is solid?

Just a few questions.

There are days when I am reminded I am not from here.  The people who opposed daylight savings time, defended township government, etc.  Now it’s all about Georgia Street.  As you probably know the city is looking at changing the name of Georgia Street in time for the Super Bowl, more importantly it’s spending more than $12 million to revamp the street that lies between Conseco Fieldhouse and the Convention Center.

The city is holding a contest to decide what new name the street should be given if changed.  That has prompted quite the outcry.  City-County Councilor Angela Mansfield has filed a resolution with the Council calling on the Mayor to stop changing the name; apparently there was no proposed smoking ban for Angela to get excited over.  A group has started a Facebook page claiming 800 members (out of a city of more than 800,000) and an on-line petition drive has begun as well.

To be frank, I don’t care.  I take that back, I care more about business that is disrupted on Georgia Street due to needed construction than I do about the name of the street.  I have been pelted with every name in the book for my opinion, heartless, uncaring, carpetbagger, etc.  Frankly, I am amazed these many people can get excited over the name of a street, but no one shows up to city hall when the public has the opportunity to comment on the budget.  I’m sorry, six members of the public showed up to testify, my bad.

If people can get this excited over a street name, just imagine what they could do if they decided to actually put that energy to productive use.  Mansfield told WISH-TV Channel 8, that Georgia street has had its name since 1821 and it’s disrespectful to change it.  You know, there are a lot of things we used to have back in 1821 that don’t exist anymore.  (No, I am not going to use the reference that some of you think I will).  Downtown Indianapolis used to be all cobblestones and horse and buggies.  Those are no longer our primary sources of transportation.  If anything they are friendly reminders of an era long gone.

I don’t think changing the name of Georgia Street is going to mean the end of the world.   However if it makes people feel better, here’s a compromise.  Keep the name “Georgia” Street, but for a month before the Super Bowl make it “Champion Lane”.  And then when the Super Bowl is over, keep both names, like as is done on streets and roads that have official names and honorary names.  That should take care of this problem.   By the way, if this is the biggest thing that people have to complain about, then Indianapolis is in a lot better shape than a lot of us ever thought it could be.

The Indiana Supreme Court Tuesday ruled there is no right to use force or violence to prevent police from coming into your home, even if that entry is unlawful. The holding is a clarification of an earlier ruling where the Court said there was no right to resist police entry.

The opinion caused a lot of controversy and sparked a legislative study committee.  I personally think it strikes the right balance between common sense and the 4th Amendment because usually we don’t know if an entry was illegal until after the fact and too much can go wrong in that time.