Now that Democrats are getting ready to assume control of the Indianapolis City-County Council one of their tops priorities will be a “stronger” smoking ban.  Note the language; they say they want a “stronger” ban as opposed to a “total” or “comprehensive” ban.   Part of the logic for this is that there is absolutely no support for a total smoking ban in Marion County and there is no way it could pass the Council.

But  let’s take that out of the equation for a few minutes, I think the more important question is does Indianapolis need a “stronger” smoking ban?  The original compromised that passed several years ago seems to work well.  If  you allow anyone under 18 in your establishment, then you can’t have smoking.  Seems pretty simple.  Of course at the time, the point of the smoking ban was to protect children.  Over time that argument morphed to “protect workers”.   So now that smoking ban advocates believe they have a more friendly council they want to bring the issue back up.

The best research that I’ve been able to gather is that about 25% of the places that serve alcohol in Indianapolis allow smoking.  Which is interesting, because according the Center for Disease Control about 21% of the population in Indiana smokes.  So there appears to be ample choice for consumers, workers and owners to avoid exposure to smoke.

But if smoking advocates are going to push forward, might I make a suggestion.  Leave out cigar bars, private clubs, VFW halls and tobacco shops.  Include bowling alleys that allow children.  And pass a ban on all new establishments and grandfather in existing ones.  So if an individual already has a liquor license they can stay smoking, however if they sell or transfer that license, the new place must go non-smoking.  A rather reasonable compromise, don’t you think?  With 75% of all bars and restaurants already non-smoking,  over time you will only increase that percentage.

That may not be good enough for some people, but to be honest they would be luckily to get that.  Especially after the mailer sent this election year sent out by the Tobacco Free Kids PAC attacking Mayor Greg Ballard, not only on his position on the smoking ban, but also education and crime.   But zealots have never been reasonable.  They will very likely hate my idea, which means it makes absolute perfect sense.  I think I will go celebrate with a cigar.

Today is Veteran’s Day so I’m taking a little break from blogging.  I’ll have more this weekend on the new make up of the Indianapolis City-County Council and the “stronger” smoking ban everyone is talking about.  You may also want to pick up a copy of  “The Cheat Sheet” on my other blog (IndyPolitics.Org).  It’s got pretty interesting items about the upcoming Organization Day at the Indiana General Assembly.  Enjoy your day and never forget its because of Veterans like my Dad, my brother and the Lovely Mrs. Shabazz that we get to enjoy the freedoms that we do.

So how did Marion County Democrats manage to lose the highest office a county where they have an inherent 10-point advantage over Republicans?  That question is being asked in today Democratic circles and there apparently is a lot of blame being passed around and not a lot of responsibility being picked up.

Their candidate, Melina Kennedy, raised the money, issued the position papers, had the endorsements of the Indianapolis Star and Fraternal Order of Police, and she was very competitive with fundraising, yet when it was all said and done, for the second time, the voters took a bucket of water and dissolved her political ambitions like it a scene out of the Wizard of OZ.

Marion County Democratic Party (MCDP) Chairman Ed Treacy is reportedly blaming power broker Lacy Johnson and the Black ministers for failing to deliver the African-American vote.  A good chunk of the he party faithful is blaming Treacy.  MCDP Executive Director Adam Kirsch is blaming sexism.

Like I said, while there is probably a smorgasbord of blame to dish out,  there was one main reason why Kennedy lost, she was not a very likeable individual.  And at the end of the day, people vote for whom they like and against whom they can’t stand.  While it may not seem like solid political theory from the Harvard School of Government, it has the inconvenient plus of being true.  Kennedy just didn’t do it for the voters.  In fact, had she been running at-large she would have come in third after John Barth and Pam Hickman.   Voters want warm and fuzzy, with a good dose of smarts and toughness.  They don’t want politically frigid candidates who can’t connect.

While Kennedy was a good speaker and debator, she never seemed to emotionally connect with voters.  When  she ran ads showing that she was a mom and she cared, the words seemed more forced and mechanical than anything else.   She came across as your ex-girlfriend who would you take to a party, she would sit there, politely sip her drink, not finish it, and be ready to go home in an hour.   The only time she ever showed any real emotion was in her concession speech where she fought to hold back tears.

Another reason for her unlikeability was that she also went negative early.  Instead of telling voters what she would do, she attacked incumbent Greg Ballard, whom the polls shows had a 60-plus percent approval rating.   This was clearly a race where voters did not like negative attacks and Kennedy went ugly early and unfortunately paid a price for it.

The more tough part about Kennedy’s loss is that this was her second one.  She ran for County Prosecutor in 2006 and lost to Carl Brizzi.  Ironically, the same person who ran Brizzi’s campaign at the time also ran incumbent Greg Ballard’s campaign.  If she was hoping for vindication after being the only Democrat to lose in the 2006 wave, the only thing she got was confirmation, voters don’t like her.

When Greg Ballard first got elected Mayor of Indianapolis in 2007 he was dubbed by one of my media colleagues as “the accidental mayor.”  The logic behind the name was that Ballard only beat incumbent Mayor Bart Peterson because of high property taxes, crime and a 65-percent County Option  income tax increase.  Fast forward four years later.

Facing a political climate that was perfect for a Democratic victory (a popular Democrat, a county that was trending Democratic by at least 10 points, and early voter advantage by Democrats, allegations of racism and 70 degree weather and sunny skies) Ballard did something very people thought he was capable of doing, he won a second term.

Not only did he win, but he did it with crossover appeal.  Although Marion County Democrats had a straight-ticket voter advantage of  54-34, Ballard beat Melina Kennedy, 51-47.  How did it happen?  There were a number of factors.

The polls showed while Ballard had a 11-point lead (44-33) over Kennedy, there were 21% undecided and the undecided voters broke along traditional lines, 2-to-1 for the challenger.  That put him at 51-47, exactly the way the vote totals turned out.  It was also interesting to note that while there were 12,000 more straight ticket Democratic voters than Republican, Ballard won by 8,100 votes.  That means that a lot of Democrats crossed over.  Why?   A coalition of African-American businessmen and pastors came to the Mayor’s rescue.

Despite the best efforts by the Baptist Ministers Alliance who accused the Mayor of being racist, Ballard won because the coalition went out into the neighborhoods and communities and counteracted the allegations that the Mayor was racially insensitive.   Also by doing this, the ministers and businessmen have given Republicans a winning formula for Marion County.

It also didn’t help that Kennedy was an unlikeable figure.

Of course the Mayor will have to contend with a Democratic-controlled council (16-13) however,  there isn’t much Ballard won’t be able to accomplish by appealing to the Indiana General Assembly, which ultimately has more authority than the City-County Council.

So while, Ballard’s first election might have been considered an accident by some, the second time was definitely no accident.  In fact,  one could argue that it was done on purpose.

This is the day we have been waiting for. Election Day!  No more commercials.  No more spin.  No more candidates.  Now the people get to have their say.

I’ll be updating updating throughout the day on Twitter and Facebook.  Follow or friend  me for the latest.  And watch us tonight, starting at 6 p.m. on WRTV Channel 6 for the latest Election Coverage.  We will have a complete wrap up later.

Also, feel free to follow my fellow political bloggers for some perspective as well.

• Capitol & Washington
• Capitol Watchblog
• Hoosier Access
• Indy Democrat
• Indy Star Blog (Deep Fried Politics)
• Jim Shella’s Political Blog

The polls are open until 6 p.m. If you don’t vote, you forfeit your right to complain.

You knew it was bound to happen.  Less than 24 hours before the polls open there were charges of voter intimidation and misleading poll workers.  This all took place at an “emergency” hearing of the Marion County Election Board.

Marion County Clerk Beth White said voters have received misinformation regarding their polling places, the GOP was trying to confuse poll workers with inaccurate information and the Republican list of more than 760 election day challengers was meant to intimidate voters.  GOP Chairman Kyle Walker denied the allegations.

The controversy, in part, was over the GOP wanting to enforce a new state law which says an individual who casts an absentee ballot cannot “beat their ballot to the box” and vote a second time in person and that vote cancel out the previous vote.

Another matter involved a voter who said he received a robo-call giving him bad information about where to vote.  I did later discover that the voter who testified he received misleading information about where to vote had moved and was entered into the system twice. The information he received was based on the previous voting address.

The board only took action on the alleged misleading phone call.  I’ve embedded comments from the members of the Board below.

Mark Sullivan

Beth White

P.J. Dietrich

The Board only took action on one of the allegations, which was to forward the matter to the Prosecutors Office and U.S. Attorney.  The Election starts tomorrow at 6 a.m. and can’t get here soon enough.

With about 24 hours to go before the polls open, I’m going to take a pass on commenting on the candidates for Mayor and instead let two other people do it.  One is a Melina Kennedy supporter and the other a Greg Ballard supporter, both are good friends.

I think the race is close and will be won or lost in the Black community as evidenced by Kennedy and Ballard’s joint appearances Sunday morning at Eastern Star Church’s west side campus, much to the chagrin of Pastor Jeffrey Johnson.  Who by the way was very even-handed in his speaking about both candidates, however, I couldn’t help but think of  Matthew 23:27-29 when Johnson said he was happy to see Ballard and have him at Eastern Star.

Here are the respective commentaries…

Why I Am Supporting Ballard

Why I Am Supporting Kennedy

The polls open at 6 a.m. Tuesday.

The following is a guest blog post by Bill Smythe the owner of Claude & Annie’s near the old airport terminal.

Let me give you some advice!

That phrase makes me cringe when I hear it during my normal workday setting behind the bar at either of the (2) Claude & Annie’s locations I own. You see one of the most common practices of my customers is for them to offer their advice on what I need to do to make my place better or more appealing. These suggestions range from hiring sexier servers/bartenders , making them wear sexier uniforms , to changing the music on the jukebox , types of bands or eliminating karaoke to just lowering prices of their favorite brew. To be honest, there is no limit to the advice I have been given over the last 18 years of owning and managing my family’s business but I find it odd that the one bit of advice I almost never get is – would you please go non-smoking ?

The election Tuesday in Marion County for both Mayor and  the City Council has received a lot of press (mostly from the Star) regarding the potential to eliminate the exemptions that came about from the compromise we forged in 2005 when the original smoking ban was implemented for any location that serviced customers under the age of 18. As such, we were required to post a sign on the entrance identifying us as a smoking location and request an exemption with the Marion County Board of Health. As best as I am able to confirm there are a total of 344 exempted locations in Marion County out of approximately 1,200 establishments that sell/serve alcohol and beer. So as you can see, a small minority of all establishments but an even smaller number if you look at it in perspective to every other business in Indy (some 30,000).

A recent poll by WISH-TV shows that only 1% of the people said the candidates’ position on smoking ban is the reason for voting for them in the upcoming election. This didn’t surprise me in the least when I thought back on how few (if any) of my customers have asked me to go non-smoking over the last several years.  So why do a very small minority of people think they should be able to force their opinions on the both the private business owner and the general public with respects to smoking policy? Why is the sign posted at the door not enough to alert a person of age that they have a choice not to enter an establishment if they oppose smoking?

I can’t speak for the smoking prohibitionists. They appear to be motivated by emotion instead of logic, because the only thing extending the smoking ban will do is put small business owners out of business and cause many employees to lose their jobs. And here is what else I know – if I thought I could make more money by going non smoking – then I would do it in a heartbeat. All you need to do is stop in and listen to my customers “advice” to know what I should do, and that is oppose the nannies that want the ban and support the candidates that are willing to stand up and oppose them.

Bill Smythe
Bill’s Airport Bar , LLC
dba/Claude & Annie’s Airport

The Indiana Bar Owners Association has also come out with its list of City-County Council candidates it is endorsing.

I was curious to find out what streets and sidewalks in Indianapolis would not be repaired if $150 million from the water deal were to be spent on social welfare programs so I went and got the list from the Indianapolis Department of Public Works. Here it is. Is your street on it? Let me know.

I expected the first independent poll of the Indianapolis Mayor’s race would create quite a bit of spin, however I did think I’d end up paying a visit to the Duncan Yo-Yo factory.  In an e-mail sent out by Melina Kennedy campaign manager Nick Buis they downplay the WISH-TV poll…

In 2007, in the final public poll released October 26th, Mayor Peterson, who like Ballard was under 50% a week before the election, held a lead of 43% to 39%. Ballard won the race on Election Day 51% to 47%.

Buis “forgets” that those same polls showed  a majority of Indianapolis residents thought the city was on the wrong track.  In the WISH-TV poll , 55 percent of the people thought the city was on the right track.  And by the time the Star had polled in October 2007, there had already been two polls (one GOP and one WISH-TV) which showed Peterson was extremely vulnerable.

Also in 2007, Peterson’s own internal polls showed the race was tied.  Kennedy’s camp has NEVER released their internal polling, instead pointing the County party’s poll.  The Ballard people did release theirs showing them a 51-39 lead.

Another fact in all this is that the WISH-TV poll comes after Kennedy has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television, radio and mailers attacking Ballard.   And while we are at it, the poll’s makeup was 47% Democrat, 36% Republican and 24% minority, which is about the general make-up of Marion County.  So for Ballard to be 11 points ahead when his baseline is 9 points fewer shows he has crossover appeal and Kennedy has not sealed the deal with her own party.

And even if you take the Marion County Democrats September poll at  face value, Kennedy was at 40% in their poll and Ballard was at 38% with the undecides at 21%.  The WISH-TV poll shows Kennedy has lost seven points and Ballard has gained six since that poll was taken.

Democrats have also been telling their voters that similar polls showed Julia Carson behind and yet she went on to victory.  They forget that Julia had a lot of support in the black churches which carried the day.  This time around the church is divided.

My Democratic friends have also been touting polling research that argues 80% of undecided voters break for the challenger in an election. If you subscribe to that theory and   the undecided are at 21% then 16.8% go to Kennedy and 4.2% go to Ballard, making the vote totals 49.8% to 48.2%.  I could see this being the case if Ballard’s favorable ratings weren’t in the 60s.  I would argue at best Kennedy picks up undecided voters 2-to-1 based on more recent research, although I would argue a more reasonable assumption is that they split  50-50.

The one silver lining in Kennedy’s cloudy sky is that she has a lead in individuals who have voted early.  However, early voting does not equal more voting.   In the last election with satellite voting there was no significant increase in voter turnout.  The deck chairs were just rearranged on the Titanic.  And efforts by the Baptist Ministers Alliance to bring down 1,000 people last Sunday on buses to the polls fell short by about 700.

Now this is by no way a shoe-in for either candidate and now they both have to kick things into high gear.  However, I think Kennedy has the longer road to tow as she has not sewn up her base completely and we have 5 days left.  Anything can happen, and in politics a day is a lifetime.  But the nice thing about spin, anyone can do it.