As you probably noticed what used to be a pretty daily occurrence of posting here at Indiana Barrister has tapered off just a bit.   Since leaving the radio station nearly a year ago,  I started some other ventures that are actually working out quite well.

My website Indy Politics is kicking butt, and more importantly, making money.  I’ve also started writing weekly columns for NUVO (focusing on city issues) and the Statehouse File (focusing mainly on state issues).  Throw in my teaching (University of Indianapolis, Ivy Tech, Kaplan) , political commentating (Indy Star, RTV 6, Inside Indiana Business), occasional attorney/consultant playing and keeping the lovely Mrs. Shabazz happy (by the way, we’ll be coming up on our three-year anniversary next month), you can see how the plate gets full real quick.

So what does all this mean, well it took a while, but what’s going to happen is I’m going to make a point to post 3-4 times a week on a more consistent basis.  Just so you know when to check in, my goals are to post M, W & F and either Saturday or Sunday, depending.   I still plan to be snarky and shill for my friends on the 25th floor and the state’s GOP establishment.  (I figured I’d say it before you did).  I just wanted to give you a bit of heads up.  As always, your comments and input are welcome, even Rico and Ramon.

Thanks for reading Indiana Barrister for all these years.

This post originally appeared in my weekly on-line column in NUVO.   It happened right before a federal judge ruled the Mayor’s Office was in its statutorily granted authority to shut down the Project School.

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I am a big fan of charter schools. I like them because of the innovation they can bring to a classroom, because they give parents choices, they give teachers the freedom to teach and most importantly, when they don’t work, they get closed down. Looking at the data at the Indianapolis Project School, I have a hard time seeing how this place is staying open.

To get you up to speed on this debate, the Project School, located at 22nd and College is a charter school that offers a “holistic” approach to education. According to its mission statement, “The vision of the Project School is to eliminate the predictive value of race, class, gender and special capacities on student success in our school and in our communities by working together with families and community to ensure each child’s success.” Noble goals, but unfortunately, while the spirit is willing, the flesh just might be too weak to do the job.

According to the latest round of ISTEP Test scores less than 29 percent of students passed both the English and Language Arts portion of the exam. Here is a breakdown by grade.

• 3rd Grade – 21.2 %.

• 4th Grade – 57.9 %

• 5th Grade – 29.2 %

• 6th Grade – 31.3 %.

• 7th Grade – 10.5 %.

• 8th Grade – 30%.

No one in their right mind could possibly think that 90% of a school’s 7th graders failing English and math is a good thing.

I also wanted to check and make sure that the Project School just wasn’t having a bad year and the poor test results weren’t just a blip on the radar screen. So I went back and looked at ISTEP test results from previous years. Here’s what I found.

• 2012 – 28.9% passed English & Math; 35.4% passed Math; 43.8 % passed English

• 2011 – 29.2% passed English & Math; 33.9% passed Math; 54.9% passed English

• 2010 – 21.1% passed English & Math; 26.7% passed Math; 46.7% passed English

• 2009 – 14.8% passed English & Math; 18% passed Math; 39.3% passed English

• 2008 – 29.8% passed English & Math; 38.8% passed Math; 40.3% passed English

And when you break the school down by racial demographics the results are even more tragic. While 72% of white students passed English and Math on ISTEP, only 16.3% of black students did. And while 72.4% of students not on free and reduced lunch passed the English and Math portion of ISTEP, only 13.5% of student on free and reduced lunch did. I also went and looked at past school years, the average pass rate at the Project School for Black students was 17% and for white students it was 49.3%. Free and reduced lunch students – 19.35%; and for non free and reduced lunch the pass rate was 40.25%.

I fully understand the Project School serves what I would likely label “difficult populations” but the fact over the past several years the test scores of black and poor students can barely crack the 20% mark tells me that something is not working and either the school needs to be shut down or new management needs to be brought in to run the place. Otherwise, the Project School may as well be an IPS School.

The best part about outrage is when it’s not real.  The worst part of outrage is when it insults your intelligence.    Allow me to explain.

My political counterpart and occasional sparring partner Amos Brown has posted on his blog about raises being given in Mayor Greg Ballard’s  Office at a time when the city faces a $27 million shortfall.    It contains the usual rantings of righteous indignation and Democrats like at-large Council Member Pam Hickman have taken to social media to perpetuate the outrage and “concerns” for public safety.

First of two quick points, I don’t recall Brown or Hickman being this livid when the Council took two contractual positions, Council Attorney and Chief Financial Officer and made them full-time positions (with benefits, i.e. sick time, vacation time, pension contributions) when the city was starring down the barrel of a $50 million shortfall.

Second quick point, are the raises occurring in a vacuum or how does the Mayor’s overall budget look?  Has it increased?  Are they working within the current parameter?  Or has the budget gone down overall because they are doing less with more?  That is the more important question to ask.  If the office is paying fewer more, but had an overall drop in its, then I really don’t have a problem.    But apparently, some other people do.

And this criticism is coming from people who were ready to spend $180,000 on redistricting which has already been done and they privately admit is legal and a challenge would not stand up in court.  This criticism is coming from people who said during the last budget cycle that public safety wasn’t being cut enough and too many other parts of city government were bearing the brunt alone?  And lets not forget this is the same crowd that passed budgets with blank pages and passed a $100 million bond years back to cover operating expenses which the city is still paying about $9 million annually in interest payments.

And before I forget, the budget for the  Mayor’s office in 2009 was $4.1 million.  In 2012 the introduced amount was $3.38 million.

Yeah, that’s what I thought too.  Like I said,  t’s the worst kind of hypocrisy because it insults your intellect if you know where to look or have a decent memory.

This may sound crazy, but I’ve been doing some analysis lately of the new 7th Congressional District maps, and Republican Carlos May actually has a pretty good shot at pulling an upset victory over Democratic incumbent Andre Carson.  No,  I have been overindulging in martinis.  (I actually gave up alcohol for 30 days doing the Abdul version of Ramadan.)  What I have been doing is looking at the numbers and doing some extrapolation.

As you know the new 7th District was redrawn and is now basically the southern two-thirds of Marion County.   So using that voter information,  I based my analysis on several past elections: Mitch Daniels in 2008, Greg Ballard in 2011 and Carson’s own races in 2008 and 2010.

In 2008, Mitch Daniels beat Jill Long Thompson 55-42.  He won by more than 44,000 votes and he won every township in the 7th except Center and Pike.  And he loss Pike by less than 100 votes.

In 2011, Greg Ballard beat Melina Kennedy in the new 7th,  52-48.  He won by a 7,500 -vote margin and won all but three townships (Center, Pike and Washington).

For Carson himself, in 2008, a very good year for Democrats and Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, he won the new 7th District 57-42, losing only the three southern townships of Decatur, Franklin and Perry.  In 2010,  Carson had a more narrow victory,winning 53-47,  losing all three southern townships and Warren.    It is worth noting in 2008, Carson beat Republican Gabrielle Campo 65-34 in the old 7th.  And in 2010, he beat Marvin Scott 58-37.

This shows that there is a potential path to victory for May if he can emulate the Daniels-Ballard method of campaigning, which is running as a right of center, results-oriented, protecting taxpayers candidate.  Also he would need to appeal to those Center Township voters who are not crazy about Carson.  He would also have to pull enough resources to get his message out.   A tall order to be sure, but a May victory in November is not out of the realm of reality.

As of today, we are 100 days out until Election Day.  So I figured what better time to sit down and do a little political pontification and handicap the big political races here in Indiana.

Now granted, the caveat in all this is the old adage that a day in politics is a lifetime and anything can happen and it usually does.  So all my predictions I am making today are based on my knowledge and experience of today.  Ask me these same questions tomorrow and you might get a different answer.  So with that said, let’s begin, shall we…

Presidential Race

• While I have very little doubt that Mitt Romney will win the State of Indiana, I truly think the President will squeak out a victory.  I base this decision on that fact that in places where President Barack Obama should be getting his clock cleaned, he is still running competitively in the polls.  The difference is between 1-2 percentage points in places like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.  He also has a shorter trip to make to get to 270 electoral votes than Romney. The latest polls have the President north of 300 electoral votes.

U.S. Senate

• I frankly think this will be the most interesting race to watch.  Every poll taken has Republican Richard Mourdock and Democrat Joe Donnelly in a statistical tie.  Donnelly’s last public polling showed the race tied and even the Mourdock camp privately admits it’s a close race.  The two gentlemen are also basically neck and neck on fundraising.  While Mourdock reported raising $1.7 million in the second quarter, Donnelly reported more cash on hand at $1.4 million.  I’ll be watching how much money is spent by outside groups, how that drives poll numbers, do “Lugar Republicans” vote for Donnelly or do they come back home to Mourdock?  Also, will the Libertarian Andy Horning pull enough votes from either candidate to ensure the other one a victory?

Governor

• As much as I like Democrat John Gregg personally, I have a soft spot for lawyers turned radio talk show hosts, I think this race is basically Mike Pence’s, another lawyer and former radio talk show host, to lose. It’s not just the money that makes me draw this conclusion; the latest reports showed Pence with $5.5 million in the bank while Greg had less than $3 million.  Pence has been bombarding the airwaves, “introducing” himself to voters and defining himself before the Democrats get a chance to do it for him.  In addition, Republicans have been opening “Victory Centers” across the state to make phone calls, recruit volunteers, and coordinate campaign strategy all from a regional perspective.  I knew this was going the GOP way when they opened a center in Lake County the weekend of the Democratic State convention in Ft. Wayne.

The Other Statewides

• Once again, I put the odds in favor of Republican Attorney General Greg Zoeller and Superintendent of Public Instruction Dr. Tony Bennett.  I base these races on past history and the fact that even in the best of   Democratic years in Indiana on the Congressional level, 2006 and 2008, my Democratic friends lost every state wide race.  I doubt if Democratic challengers Kay Fleming and Glenda Ritz can break those trends.  Also Zoeller and Bennett have dominated their opponents in fundraising.

Now like I said, these predictions are based on today, and we have about 100 days to go before the election so anything is possible.  However, I feel pretty good about them.  Of course, you can always check in with me tomorrow and I may have a different answer for you.

I am not a big sports person, but I can appreciate half-time reports because they give me a pretty good synopsis of what I’ve missed and they also let me know what to pay attention to for the rest of the game.  So if you don’t mind me taking a page out of the NFL playbook, I’d like to give you a half-time report of what’s been going on with your city-county government.

What They’ve Done

•  Smoking Ban – Although I am not a big fan of smoking bans from a philosophical perspective, the Mayor and Council got this passed.

What They’re Doing

• TIF District – The Council is looking at restructuring the way the city does TIF districts. For you non-government geeks a TIF district is a tax-increment financing district. The districts use money from the increased assessed value in property within the district to pay for economic development projects. Debate continues about how long TIFs should be allowed to exist and how they should be created. The Council has put together a recommendation, but the Mayor’s office is not crazy about it.  The other problem here is that Mayoral wannabe Brian Mahern is holding up the Mass Ave and Avondale Meadows projects, which is more than $700 million in development.

• Same-sex domestic partner benefits – The Council is putting together a proposal that would give city benefits to same-sex and unmarried couples. The problem is verification and safeguarding against two people who are roommates trying to scam the city versus two people who are true domestic partners. The other catch is a number of councilors are skeptical about giving benefits to unmarried opposite sex couples because they have the option of getting married.

What They Didn’t Do

• Redistricting — The Democrat’s efforts to redo the Mayor’s redistricting proposal fell flat. They failed to override a mayoral veto of the new maps. There is talk of legal challenge; there are two  problems with that.  The first is finding a law firm to do it and the money to finance the litigation.  The other problem is that the Council Democrats privately admit the maps are legal and a challenge would fail in court.

What They Still Have to Do

• The budget — Indianapolis is looking at closing a $47 million budget shortfall. Note: That number was north of $70 million before the recent discovery of the state’s accounting error that shortchanged local governments. That revenue correction dropped the budget squeeze by a few million bucks. The big problem weighing on expenditures involves public safety. The sheriff has been complaining about having to eat the costs of inmate health care and wants to be able to bill that amount back to the arresting agencies. He also suggests that his lower-paid staff could handle traffic patrol more cost effectively than higher-paid IMPD officers. The city is cool to that idea.

Veto Record

• So far the Mayor has issued six vetoes of Council proposals.  Under the last Council he only issued one.

Here’s my morning report on Indiana Black Expo’s second Saturday night.  It was uneventful.  A few minor incidents and to date, less than a dozen or so arrests.  IMPD did a great job.  Indiana Black Expo did a great job.  The 10-point Coalition did an awesome job.

There was strict curfew enforcement and the cops were not playing.  I have never been so pleased to write about nothing happening.

We’ve come a long way since 2010.

It’s that time of year again.   It’s the second Saturday night of Indiana Black Expo and I’m getting ready to head downtown in a bit to work the door at Nicky Blaine’s.  I’m expecting it to be pretty violence free.

IMPD has done a pretty good job of warning the trouble makers to stay away.  They’ve stepped up police presence and with HUD’s help they’ve also sent letters to people who live in public housing letting them if their kids get in trouble downtown they could lose their housing subsidy.  (Awesome!!!)

Here is my interview from earlier this week with interim Chief Rick Hite.

I’ll be posting tonight on Twitter, so feel free to follow me.  The only scary part of all this are the young girls who decide to exercise the “clothing optional” portion of the evening.

I’ll have a full report tomorrow.

Sources close to the City of Indianapolis are telling Indy Politics to not be shocked if Mayor Greg Ballard announces another Super Bowl bid for 2018.

The Mayor, Governor Mitch Daniels and a number of other officials are expected to announce tomorrow the economic impact of Super Bowl 46 on the city.  Those numbers, compiled by an independent analysis, are being described as very strong.

So strong in fact, that the city is expected to announce it will pursue another Super Bowl.  Sources say the city will pursue Super Bowl 52 in 2018.

Although there have been no prior analyses, earlier estimations have been Super Bowl 46 would have generated anywhere between $125 million to $400 million for the city.

Indiana GOP Statewide candidates not only grossly out-raised their Democratic opponents but had a lot more cash on hand.

In the Governor’s race, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence out-raised his opponent John Gregg by nearly 2-1 in the second quarter of 2012, taking in more than $3 million to Gregg’s $1.7 million.

Pence also has nearly twice as much cash on hand as Gregg.  His campaign reported having more than $5.5 million in the bank.  Gregg reported having $2.85 million.

In other statewide races, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Dr. Tony Bennett reported raising more than $341,000 in the second quarter and reported having nearly $780,000 in cash on hand. His Democratic opponent Glenda Ritz, reported raising nearly $37,000 and having slightly more than $24,000 on hand.

Attorney General candidate Greg Zoeller reported raising nearly $173,000 and having just under $460,000 in cash on hand.  His opponent Kay Fleming reported raising nearly $5,200 and having about $4,200 in cash on hand.