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30 Days and Change

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

So with about 30 days to go until E-Day (Election Day), what’s your prediction?  Here are the categories.

  • Presidential (popular and electoral math)
  • U.S. Senate (with point spread)
  • Governor (with the point spread)
  • Attorney General and Superintendent of Public Instruction (with point  spread)
  • Congressional Delegation make up (right now it’s 6 Rs and 3 Ds)
  • Make of  Indiana General Assembly
  • Dark Horse Race

Enjoy.

 

Come Tweet With Me

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

As part of tonight’s Presidential Debate coverage, I’ll be tweeting along with several other media and political types as part of the Indianapolis Star’s debate coverage.    We will be tweeting with the hashtag #StarDebate

Scheduled to participate are…

  • Abdul-Hakim-Shabazz (@attyabdul) or @IndyPoliticsOrg
  • Mary Beth Schneider (@marybschneider)
  • Matt Tully (@matthewltully)
  • Erika Smith (@indystar_erika)
  • Pete Seat (@peteseat)
  • Lara Beck (@beckcomgroup)
  • Michelle Freed Momper (@MichelleFreed)
  • Chris Spangle (@chrisspangle)
  • April Gregory (@aprildgregory)
  • Jen Wagner (@JenniferAWagner)
  • Nathan Kozman (@KozinIndy)

The debate begins at 9 p.m. ET.    Come hang out.  It should be fun.

 

The Air Campaign

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

A number of candidates have unveiled their latest Television ads either promoting themselves or attacking their opponents.   Here are a few of the latest ones.

 

Richard Mourdock – Republican candidate U.S. Senate

Joe Donnelly – Democratic candidate U.S. Senate

John Gregg – Democratic candidate for Governor

Mike Pence – Republican candidate for Governor

Tony Bennett – Superintendent of Public Instruction

Mary Ann Sullivan – Democratic candidate for SD 36

Todd Young – Republican candidate 9th Congressional District

Dave Crooks – Democratic candidate, 8th Congressional District

So, Why Are You Running Again?

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

Just like we did back in the May Primary, we are giving the candidates for federal, state and local offices here in Indiana the chance to tells voters why they are running and more importantly, why they should vote for them.

Indiana Barrister is making space available on this blog, as well as our sister blog Indy Politics.

Our only requirements are that your column be as close to 500 words as possible and you include a photograph of yourself that is at least 640 x 400.  Ask your campaign person what that means if you aren’t sure.

Just like last time, there is no deadline, per se.  But the sooner you send it, the sooner we can post it.  Send your column to either abdul@indypolitics.org or info@indypolitics.org.  We’ll also link back to your website from the column.

We’d love to hear from you.  More importantly, so would the voters.

And if you don’t think it’s worth your time, let me throw a couple quick stats at you.  Since January 1, both Indy Politics and Indiana Barrister have had a combined total of nearly 300,000 unique page views and the average reader spends more than two minutes on each page.

Early voting starts soon.  We’re looking forward to hearing from you.

Political Predictions

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

With 40 days left to go in the 2012 Election cycle,  I figured that would be as good time as any to offer a few assessments and even worse – predictions – regarding the races here in Indiana.

As always, a day is like a lifetime in politics and anything can, and usually does, change.  So keep that in mind as you read this.

Presidential

  • Big shocker, Mitt Romney easily carries Indiana. Even if incumbent President Barack Obama wasn’t unpopular here, the Obama for America team is practically nowhere to be found.

The good news for the Obama folks, though, is that right now they have the national momentum and will likely walk away with a second term.

U.S. Senate

  • This is going to be the nail-biter and down to the wire. Every external and internal poll I have been privy to shows Richard Mourdock and Joe Donnelly neck and neck. And as I have said before, it’s the Lugar Republicans who are still on the fence and making this race so close. And Sen. Richard Lugar’s decision not to campaign for Mourdock probably doesn’t help.
  • Now with that said, I think Mourdock will likely squeak out a win because of a couple of factors. First, this is still a Republican state and Donnelly has fewer options to get to 51 percent. However, Mourdock is really going to have to reach out to the Lugar Republicans and tell some of the tea-party elements that are taking credit for his victory to go chill out for a while.

Governor

  • I am just about ready to stick a fork in this race because it is done. It’s not so much because, once again, the polling I am privy to is showing Republican Mike Pence with a 15-20 point lead over John Gregg. It’s more that while Pence has run an extremely disciplined campaign, I can’t quite figure out what Gregg is doing. His latest rainy day ad, while cute in a Hee Haw sort of way, is factually wrong – as pointed out by WISH-TV’s Jim Shella and yours truly.   Gregg has not been able to get traction this entire campaign. He may have gotten a little bit of traction calling on DCS Chief Judge James Payne to resign, but if Pence’s lead in the polls remains in the double-digits, I don’t expect too much to change. Gregg has also promised that he would not go negative, so his last hope is the debates, if anyone apart from the political class actually watches.

Indiana Attorney General

  • I know Greg Zoeller, but who is Kay Fleming?

Superintendent of Public Instruction

  • In the last few days, Republican Tony Bennett has raised at least $150,000. This summer, he raised more than $250,000 in large donations. Glenda Ritz brought in $70,000, but that check was from the teachers unions. Ritz has also had trouble getting media attention, and if more than one reporter shows up to her press availabilities, she is lucky.   The only way she got media attention this week was the fact that Bennett gave his State of Education address and she was there to respond.  With that said – and all the other dynamics – I don’t see how Bennett loses this one.

Indiana House and Senate

  • There’s no reason to think the GOP won’t keep its strong majorities in both chambers. The big question is how much of a gain will they make in the House and whether they can hold onto Scott Schneider’s seat in the Senate.

Indiana Congressional Seats

  • I think the GOP wins seven of nine Congressional seats, but I think the 8th between Larry Buschon and David Crooks will be the closest.

These are my thoughts based on today. Talk to me tomorrow and you might get a different answer.

 

DCS; Then & Now

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

About seven or 8 years ago, a child who was a victim of abuse or neglect was probably better off being in the abusive household rather than being put in the hands of the Indiana Department of Child Services.  Here’s why.

  • Back in 2004, 57 children were the fatal victims of abuse and neglect.  19 of them had prior visits by a case worker.
  • Only 10% of children in DCS care received a visit by a case manager.
  • There was an 18% chance that the abused child would be placed in the home of a relative.
  • If you were to call the DCS “Hotline”,  you would have to pick from 350 numbers and there was no consistent decision making process.
  • There were less than 800 case workers and each had an average caseload of 35-60 cases.
  • And to make life more enjoyable, they practically had no training.   They were hired, given a case load and then were expected to learn on the job.

That was then.  And then Mitch Daniels and Judge James Payne took over.   Here’s what’s happening now.

  • In 2010, there were 25 child fatalities due to abuse and neglect and four of those cases had DCS involvement prior to the fatality.
  • Nearly 96% of children in DCS care receive a visit from a case manager.
  • About 40% of abused and children are placed in the home of a relative.
  • There is a single intake system for all reported calls of abuse and neglect.  The hotline is staffed by specialists around the clock.
  • As of February 2011, there were more 1600 case workers with an average caseload of about 15 cases.
  • All family case managers have to take a 12-week training class before getting their first case and receive 24 hours of training each year.

Indiana used to rank near the bottom when it came to dealing with child abuse and neglect.  However, as the Annie E. Casey Foundation noted in a recent report; the state is 10th in family reunification, 2nd in timeliness of adoption, 11th in placement stability and 3rd in permanency.

How soon we tend to forget.

 

DCS: No Undue Influence in Child Custody Case

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

The Indiana Department of Child Services is disputing allegations in Sunday’s Indianapolis Star that alleges Commissioner Judge James Payne tried to influence a custody case involving his grandchildren.

In the story Payne is accused of waging a behind-the-scenes fight against the agency and derail recommendations in a child neglect case involving his grandchildren.  The Star story also included a slew of documents.

DCS Chief of Staff John Ryan released the following statement on the matter.

When the call came into the Hotline from law enforcement in May 2010 about his grandchildren being left alone while their custodial parent had taken a trip out of state, initially – for the immediate safety of the children – DCS did send out a family case manager to take the children, and they were placed temporarily with the Paynes (Judge and Terrie).

 If you look at the confidential assessment report the Star posted online, you’ll see that the mother indicated to the case manager that she wanted the children placed with the parental grandparents.

When DCS and law enforcement were called to the residents, neither had any idea the children were Judge Payne’s grandchildren.  We were crystal clear that we had to approach this situation in a manner that definitively separated Judge Payne’s professional role from that of his personal role as a grandfather.

After fact-finding by the court revealed this was going to be a CHINS we made phone calls to Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio and Illinois to ask if any of their child-protective agencies could take the case. Unfortunately, none could do so. Illinois, however, did share a recommendation with us on how to manage it, given they have experience with high-level officials being involved in sensitive situations from time to time.

They recommended two retired, but licensed Illinois case workers. We then interviewed both and hired the second caseworker recommended: Sandy Downs. >  Sandy is, as mentioned, a licensed Illinois case worker with years of experience in working directly with children and families in the field. We hired her on a contractual basis that ranged from June 2010 through May 2011.

In addition, we also reached out to the Office of the Attorney General to address the CHINS case, and manage legal matters associated with the case proceedings.  As to Judge Payne’s involvement, it was strictly limited to being a grandparent of the children.

As you may recall from our presentation on Aug. 22 at the legislative study summer committee, DCS does follow the practice model across the board in placing children with stable relatives when possible. Given the children had lived with the Paynes for two years of their lives, and their mother had indicated she wanted the children placed with the Payne’s, placing the children with their grandparents was a clearly viable and appropriate option—rather than increasing their trauma by placing them with a foster family they did not know

The Hamilton County court agreed. Because the Paynes were temporary custodians of the children while the CHINS case was in progress, they were involved in the Child Family Team Meetings, and had interactions with the case manager and service providers – which is standard procedure for all CHINS cases.

The children’s mother and father also had regular interaction with the case manager, as well as service providers and other professionals associated with the case. We will not disclose the non-procedural specifics of this case, as we believe that all children – whether they are your children or Judge Payne’s children – are entitled to confidentiality under federal and state law.

But we will share that the children were returned eventually to the custodial parent from where they were removed. So to assert that Judge Payne influenced this situation with his professional position is false.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg has called for Payne’s resignation.

Council Democrats Have a Secret

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

If City-County Council Democrats have a secret plan to pay for public safety that does not involve the elimination of the property tax homestead credit I for one will be waiting with baited breath to see exactly what it is and whether it will actually add up.

My colleague Jon Murray pens an article in this morning’s Indianapolis Star where Democrats say they have a plan that will give IMPD and IFD their raises while still keeping the homestead credit in place.  Here’s the problem Democrats face.

The raises for IMPD and IFD would cost $5.5 million, a new recruit class would cost about $6 million and keeping the homestead would cost $13 million.  So  where are the Democrats going to find close to $25 million?  With all due respect, these guys don’t have the best track record when it comes to finances.

The city is paying $9 million in interest annually because of a $100 million loan taken out a few years back to pay for operating expenses.  Council Vice-President Brian Mahern has proposed tapping the CIB budget until he realized it had already been passed.  I know where the Council could find $100,000, they could take it out of their budget which they have included to do redistricting that has already been done and passed.  They could try and tap the city’s reserves, but all that does is kick the can down the road because that $25 million is not a one-time expenditure it’s on-going and only gets bigger as time goes by.

So if my Democratic friends have a secret plan to solve this financial problem, I hope it’s a good one because past experiences lead me to think otherwise.

 

Is John Gregg’s Latest TV Ad All Wet or Running Dry?

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

Democratic candidate for Governor John Gregg’s latest TV shows signs his campaign is likely either all wet or running dry.  As you can see below, Gregg uses his hometown of Sandborn and an umbrella to  make the case that Republican Mike Pence would raid the state rainy day fund and leave Hoosiers high and dry.  Unfortunately for Gregg, the facts don’t back that up.

On Pence’s own website he calls for reserves to stay at least 12.5% of state appropriations, current estimates have that number at 14%.   In addition, WISH-TV’s Jim Shella cites the following inconsistency from Gregg’s ad.

Supporting documentation for the ad references a story in the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette in which Pence says, “My inclination would be to spend past our reserves.”  I’m not sure what that means but the article also says that Pence “believes that a 10 percent reserve is a good minimum target.”  10 percent has long been considered the logical standard in Statehouse money circles.  Plus, Gregg won’t commit to a reserve target.

Throw in the fact that several of Gregg’s tax proposals come with a hefty price tag.  For example, his repeal of the gas tax would cost at least $520 million which he says he would pay for by cutting “fraud, waste and abuse”.

There are seven weeks left in the campaign.

Gregg Unveils “Rainy Day” TV Ad

by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

Democrat John Gregg unveils a new ad where he criticizes Republican challenger Mike Pence about wanting to spend down the “rainy day” fund.  Republicans counter that when Gregg was Speaker of the House he helped take the state from a surplus to a deficit.