With the slew of recent polls in the race for the U.S. Senate here in Indiana, Indy Politics thought it was time to put them all in perspective as we go into Election Day.

First, here is a summary of the most recent polls since the debate between Democrat Joe Donnelly, Republican Richard Mourdock and Libertarian Andy Horning.

• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee – Donnelly – 47, Mourdock 40, Horning/Undecided – 13%;  446 LV, MOE – +/- 4.5%; 10/24-10/25

• Howey-DePauw:  Donnelly – 47, Mourdock – 36, Horning/Undecided – 6% ; 800 LV, MOE – +/- 3.5%; 10/28 – 10/30.

• Rasmussen: Donnelly 45, Mourdock – 42, Other/Undecided – 12;  600 LV, MOE – +/- 4%; 11/1

• McLaughlin & Associates:  Mourdock – 46, Donnelly – 44, Horning/Undecided – 10.  600 LV, MOE – +/- 4%.   10/31 & 11/1.

If you average all these polls out here is what you get:

• Donnelly – 45, Mourdock – 41, Horning/Undecided – 10.

So, what is a voter to believe?  By this count it looks like Donnelly goes to the U.S. Senate.  Maybem but keep a few things in mind.

First and foremost, any professional pollster will tell you that all polls are a snapshot in time.  They tell you what people are thinking that day.  All polls have their strengths and weaknesses.  You could argue that the Howey poll was done in the midst of Mourdock’s comments regarding rape and abortion.   You could argue that Mourdock’s poll oversampled adults 55 and over since they were 56% of his voter survey.  You could argue Rasmussen uses landlines and not cell phones.  Ultimately, what we take away from polls depends, in part, on what we bring to them.  However, the bigger the sample size and the more reflective the sample is of the general population, the more reliable a poll tends to be.

If you are a Donnelly supporter, you probably like the results.  If you are a Mourdock fan, you will likely do everything in your ability to try to discredit the pollsters.  If you’re a Libertarian, you want to make sure Andy Horning’s name was mentioned in the survey.

Here is what we take away from these polls and others that I have been privy to.  This race has gone from likely Mourdock to probably Donnelly.  Note, the only poll showing Mourdock ahead is his own.  By my guestimate, Donnelly is probably in the 3-5 point margin of victory realm.  The best hope Mourdock has to win are the early votes that have been cast in his favor and how big Mitt Romney and Mike Pence win over Barack Obama and John Gregg.

Now this is the point where someone chimes in and says “the only poll that counts is on Election Day.”  And you would be correct, to a point.  I would argue the only polls that count have been the ones that have been cast since Mourdock made his comments.  If his support has dropped off since then, he is going to have a very hard time making up the ground in a race that up until 46:20 in the last U.S. Senate debate was likely his to lose.

An independent poll out this morning by Howey Politics and DePauw University shows Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Pence with large leads over their respective challengers.

The poll of 800 likely Hoosier voters shows Donnelly with an 11-point lead over Richard Mourdock 47-36, Libertarian Andy Horning was at 6% and 11% were undecided.

In an attempt to preempt the Howey-DePauw poll the Mourdock campaign is putting out a poll showing them with a 2-point lead over Donnelly.

Pence had a 7-point lead over John Gregg, 47-40.  Libertarian Rupert Boneham is polling at 5%.

Republican incumbent Tony Bennett leads Democrat Glenda Ritz 40-36.

The poll also showed a majority of Hoosiers favor some kind of decriminalization of marijuana and are split evenly on the question of gay marriage.

For more details on the poll, click here.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is using a quote from Mike Pence to attack comments by Richard Mourdock who is running against Joe Donnelly who is on the same ticket as John Gregg who is attacking Mike Pence accusing him of being too close to Richard Mourdock who is running against Joe Donnelly. Did you get all that?  Let me know if I need to repeat anything.

Both the Joe Donnelly and Richard Mourdock camps are releasing polls in the wake of is pat week’s debate where Mourdock caused a stir with his comments regarding rape, abortion and God.   The pro-Donnelly poll shows him with a 47-40 lead while the Mourdock poll shows the race tied at 44-44.  We have embedded memos from both polls below.

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard today struck  $32 million of the budget passed by the City-County Council, impacting every Marion County office.

Ballard’s Chief of Staff Ryan Vaughn says the cuts will come from the county option income taxes that are dedicated to the County Office such as Sheriff, Clerk, Auditor and Surveyor.  The cuts won’t go into effect until January 1.  They say the cuts are necessary because Democrats passed a budget that was not only unbalanced, but left the city with a large structural deficit for next budget year and the two sides could not reach an agreement this week.

Vaughn Explains Budget Veto – 7 minutes

The Council can override the Mayor’s veto, but it would take 20 votes and the Council is divided 16-13.   In addition a budget must be passed by November 1.

In attempt to argue that they are “closing the gap” the John Gregg campaign has released an internal poll showing them down only by six points against Republican Mike Pence.  The poll of 701 likely voters has Pence leading Gregg 44 to 38.  Libertarian Rupert Boneham is at 6, 12% are undecided.  It has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.   Previous polls have had Pence with a double-digit lead.

The poll was taken before Richard Mourdock’s controversial remarks.   It did not released any breakdowns of party identification nor geographic breakdowns.   You can view what the Gregg camp released below.

An average off the polls taken in the Governor’s race since March has Pence with 47%, Gregg with 34.5%.  15% undecided.   In no poll has Gregg cracked the 40% mark.   Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson got 40.1% of the vote in 2008.

Howey Politics and DePauw University are expected to released a poll the Friday before the election.

By now, you’ve heard about the firestorm caused at the second U.S. Senate debate in New Albany.  The ironic part of all this is that it could have been avoided if Richard Mourdock had just stopped talking when he was asked about his position on abortion.

I’ve dissected his statement and found several places where political disaster could have been avoided.

1. This is that issue that every federal or state candidate faces and I too certainly  stand for life.  (Okay, that’s fine.  You can stop now.)
2. I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view, but I believe that life begins at conception.  (Okay, you made your point.  Move on.)
3. Uh, the only exception I have for an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother.  (Okay, that was necessary, but I see you point.  Close up shop right there.)
4. I struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize that life is a gift from God.  (This can’t end well.)
5.   And I think that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape that it is something God intended to happen.  (We are so screwed!!!)

If there is one thing I have learned from talking for a living, is knowing exactly when to STFU!!!

A poll by Atlas Liberty PAC  , a national Libertarian group, shows Republican Mike Pence running statistically even with Democrat John Gregg for the race for Governor in Indianapolis and Libertarian Rupert Boneham is in double digits.

The poll of more than 1,500 likely voters in Marion County was conducted last week and has a margin of error of +/-2.5%.  The poll did not allow voters to declare undecided or not sure as an option.

In the Governor’s race, the poll results were as follows…

• Mike Pence – 40.35%
• John Gregg – 35.03%
• Rupert Boneham – 24.71%

The poll also surveyed the U.S. Senate race, which showed a breakdown more in line with traditional voting patterns.

• Joe Donnelly – 49.41%
• Richard Mourdock – 38.5%
• Andy Horning – 12.09%

The poll also surveyed the race for President.  Barack Obama is ahead, but not by much.

• Barack Obama – 44.25%
• Mitt Romney – 42.55 %
• Gary Johnson – 13.20%

The polls demographics were 33% Democrat, 36% Republican, 6% Libertarian and 23% Independent.  In Marion County, Democrats tend to have a 10-point advantage over Republicans.

The poll also surveyed three other major issues, same-sex marriage, right to work and marijuana decriminalization.

Same-Sex Marriage Amendment

• Support – 37.39%
• Oppose – 55.16 %
• Undecided – 7.14%

Right-to-Work

• Support – 54.58%
• Oppose – 32.75%
• Undecided – 12.68%

Marijuana Decriminalization

• Increase penalties – 3.46%
• Keep the laws as they are  – 22.42%
• Allow for medicinal purposes – 19.54 %
• Decriminalize adult use and possession – 8.04%
• Regulate it and tax it like alcohol – 33.33%
• Undecided – 13.20%