In the latest Indy Politics/Change Research poll of the Governor’s race, Eric Holcomb has lost ground and the main benefactor is Libertarian Donald Rainwater.
In April, Holcomb was 20 points ahead of Dr. Woody Myers, the Democrat nominee. Now that number is down to 6 points, but oddly enough, picking up the slack is Libertarian Donald Rainwater. The breakdown was 36 percent Holcomb, 30 percent Myers, 24 percent Rainwater, and 10 percent undecided.
Rainwater looks to be the candidate of choice here among Republicans disaffected with the mask mandate and Gov. Holcomb’s leadership during the pandemic: over a third of respondents who say they’re voting for Trump say they’d vote for Don Rainwater for Governor were the election today.
On the flip side, Holcomb has also earned him a sizable portion of Democrats: 16% of Biden voters say they’d vote for Eric Holcomb if the election were held today.
In the favorable/unfavorable category, Holcomb was 35/46 while Myers was 16/13; 52 percent said they never heard of him.
The poll of 1033 lively voters was conducted by Change Research from September 3-7. Change Research used its Dynamic Online Sampling to achieve a sample reflective of the likely November electorate. The margin of error as traditionally calculated at the 95% confidence level is 3.1%. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, ethnicity, education, geography, and 2016 vote.
Our sister website, Indy Politics and Change Research has just completed some new polling which we will be releasing over the next few days. Today we start with the Presidential race here in Indiana.
Not much has changed in this race since we polled back in the Spring. President Donald Trump leads former Vice-President Joe Biden 53-39. When we polled in April, Trump was ahead 52-39. Five percent went to the Libertarian candidate in our latest poll and three percent were undecided.
When it came down to approval ratings, Trump was 54-44 favorable/unfavorable in Indiana, while Biden was 36-61 favorable/unfavorable.
Vice-President Mike Pence had a 51-45 favorable/unfavorable rating. And Kamala Harris had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 35-60.
Change research surveyed1033 interviews likely voters across the state between September 3–7, 2020. It used its Dynamic Online Sampling to achieve a sample reflective of the likely November electorate. The margin of error as traditionally calculated at the 95% confidence level is 3.1%. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, ethnicity, education, geography, and 2016 vote.
Let’s face it, 2020 has not been a great year for Indianapolis in general and the Hogsett administration in particular.
The COVID-19 outbreak, protests, riots, a city on track for a record murder rate, downtown businesses in basic revolt, police morale at a near all-time low, a $100 million revenue shortfall, and it’s only July.
It’s enough to make me wonder that with all the bad news lately, does Joe Hogsett still want to be Mayor of Indianapolis? Right now, I don’t think so.
Here’s what made me think that. The fact that the mornings after the riot, Mayor Hogsett never met with the downtown businesses who had been hit by rioters and looters. Instead of being downtown that Saturday after the first riot (please note I am not dogging the protesters, I am talking about the rioters and looters), the Mayor was nowhere to be found. I say the same thing about the second night of rioting, the Mayor put out an early-morning tweet, but that was about it.
There was no tour of downtown, no conversations with the business owners, let’s face it, there was no leadership. And there is the confusion about who told IMPD to stand down and let the rioters have it. Was it the administration, or was it the top brass at IMPD? Regardless, we shouldn’t even be asking this question because it should have never have occurred in the first place. I will give the city a bit of a pass on the first day of rioting, but the second day, let’s be serious. Streets should have been closed off, marches should have been canceled, etc.
That is basic governing 101. Hogsett failed.
And to make matters worse, the city is basically throwing the police department under the bus with its public safety survey, meanwhile, the murder rate, as I write this column, is about 111. That’s a murder every 1.7 days. And the year isn’t over yet. I can easily see us getting to 200 murders. This not a good sign of someone who wants to be Mayor.
And then there was Jason Larrison. Larrison is the former City employee who replaced Blake Johnson in City-County Council District 12. He had the backing of the Mayor; meanwhile, his opponent, Karla Lopez-Owens, a Latina, had the support of at least eight Democratic Councilors. Larrison won 12-11, but Hogsett had to spend a lot of capital to get him appointed, and now there is more bad blood between the Council and the Mayor. And it doesn’t help that Larrison is a white guy and Lopez-Owens was a Latina. I’ll just set that storyline over here, and you can draw your own conclusions.
Now, this isn’t to say that Indy’s Mayors won’t have a tough time while in office. Lugar, Hudnut, Goldsmith, Peterson, and Ballard all had them. But I never felt that they didn’t want the job. My conversations with all these gentlemen are that while they had their days, they loved being Mayor. Hogsett, I’m not so sure.
Perhaps it is just the stress of the current job this year, but I’m not so sure. Looking at everything, though, really makes me wonder if Hogsett wants to be Mayor. And if he doesn’t, does he resign and go do something else, or does he just phone it in for the next three and a half years.
With all the talk about a “black agenda” these days, I thought I’d republish something I wrote last year.
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Does Indianapolis’ Black Community need an agenda? There seems to be a growing chorus that the answer is “yes.”
During the IBJ/Indy Chamber’s post-Mayoral debate news conferences this week, both incumbent Democrat Joe Hogsett and Republican challenger Jim Merritt were asked if they will have a “black agenda” should they be in office come Jan 1? Merritt said, yes. Hogsett said no. However, in fairness to Hogsett, he also added that African-Americans should benefit from the plans his administration already has on the table.
In the past, some groups have attempted to outline a “black agenda.” The African American Coalition of Indianapolis, a collective of various black organizations, has reportedly put together a proposal and the Indiana Black Legislative Caucus at the start of every session outlines an agenda as well. And you can now add me to the list.
My agenda is based, in part, on a recent poll conducted for Indy Politics by Mason Strategies. We surveyed several issues, crime, education, infrastructure, etc., and the responses given by African-Americans. And also embedded these suggestions is my firm belief that if you empower individuals to take control of their own destinies, you will get a much better result for society overall.
So with that said, here are a few items from my “agenda”…
Crime/Violence
Tougher Penalties for Crimes Committed in Certain Areas
Since blacks in low-income areas are more likely to be victims of crime than other parts of the city, local leaders should work with state officials to create “economically challenged” zones (which can be based on census data) and increase the penalties for offenses committed in those areas.
Creative post-conviction sentencing
The city should work with the criminal justice system and implement a program where non-violent, first-time offenders are sentenced to school as part of their probation. A judge under state law (IC 35-38-2-2.3) as part of probation, can order a defendant to “Work faithfully at suitable employment or faithfully pursue a course of study or career and technical education that will equip the person for suitable employment.” This will be cheaper than incarceration, and the long-term result is a productive citizen who is repairing homes and automobiles instead of breaking into them.
Increase investment in proven anti-violence iniatives.
In our survey, crime and gun-related violence were the number one issue of African-Americans, for whites, it was infrastructure. Organizations like the Ten Point Coalition have a proven track record in reducing homicides in the areas they patrol, so the city should make sure they are adequately funded, so they expand their efforts.
Education
Increase opportunities for school choice.
Our survey showed 63 percent of blacks supported school choice and vouchers, which was ten points higher than the general population. Education attainment is a crucial indicator of success.
Increase opportunities for post-secondary education attainment for adults who did not finish school.
The city should partner with the state and Ivy Tech Community college and promote either the Next Level education program which gets Hoosiers back to school to finish their degrees. Also, Ivy Tech is implementing a program geared towards single mothers so they can go back to school and complete their educations.
Increase “after school” opportunities.
The city should partner with the not for profit/faith-based and local college and university communities to create “after school” zones where children can study, get mentoring and tutoring in a safe and productive environment. The city would provide the financing, the faith-based communities and not for profits would provide the facilities, and the colleges and universities would provide the mentors and tutors.
Entrepreneurial Development
Increase opportunities for small business creation.
The city should focus on growing small businesses in economically challenged areas that will make individuals self-sufficient.
The city should partner with the Indiana Department of Commerce, the Indy Chamber and the Indy Black Chamber of Commerce to help create, grow and develop black-owned and operated businesses, particularly in economically-challenged communities of color.
Infrastructure
Create the equivalent of an infrastructure-based tax incremental finance system for roads in economically challenged areas
The city should work with the state to capture a portion of the gas tax collected in certain economically challenged areas that would be dedicated to roads, streets, and sidewalk repair.
Attainable Housing
Encourage developers who receive city tax incentives also to build, where feasible, in select areas that have economic challenges.
Work with state lawmakers to protect long-time homeowners from skyrocketing increases in property tax assessments due to gentrification by freezing their assessments in neighborhoods experiencing gentrification until the home is sold or transferred.
These are just a few ideas which I think would address the broader issues facing the African-American community in Indianapolis. It’ s not exclusive, but I think it’s a good starting point for further discussion. I do believe, however, that when you address these issues, you also take care of the collateral issues such as the achievement and economic pay gaps, food deserts, etc.
Now also, as part of this is an individual responsibility component. And African-Americans have to understand that no “agenda” can solve all the problems that plague specific segments of the community. But, I do think that the creation of a more productive and safe environment for some of our city’s residents can go a long way to making life better for all of us.
Broken glass. Damaged buildings. One person shot dead.
That was the result of violent protests last night in Downtown Indianapolis. No, let me change that.
That wasn’t protesting, that was rioting.
A protest is a peaceful demonstration a riot is what we saw last night.
For several hours I watched my colleagues at WISH-TV report on the damage caused by rioters. They set two banks on fire, threw rocks and water bottles at police, and broke a lot of windows.
Is this what George Floyd would have wanted?
They spray-painted several buildings, including Monument Circle. They caused damage to a lot of buildings.
It’s one thing to peacefully protest to show your anger. I get that, easily. What I don’t understand is destroying businesses and private property. That isn’t protesting that’s rioting.
Martin Luther King Jr., said, a riot is the language of the unheard. But he also said riots are socially destructive and self-defeating. So I have to ask, what was the point of Friday and Saturday nights?
What was the point of smashing the windows at Huntington Bank or Downtown Comics?
What was the point of throwing rocks and water bottles at police officers?
What was the point of setting dumpsters on fire in the middle of Pennsylvania Avenue?
How are rioting and damaging property going to do anything to help your cause? If anyone should be upset it should be the thousands of people who came out, protested, and then left. Most of the work that they did to make their voices heard has been or will be forgotten due to a bunch of knuckleheads who don’t know how to honor the social contract.
And it wasn’t just here in Indianapolis. Minneapolis, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, I have the same questions what did you accomplish? What did you accomplish by attacking the CNN building or the courthouse in Nashville? Please tell me because I must have missed something.
Our panel includes Democrat Jamar Cobb-Denard, Republican Joey Fox, and Eric Berman, political reporter for WIBC Radio and Network Indiana. Indiana Issues is recorded at the Edge Media Studios in downtown Indianapolis.
A new poll in CD 5 has good news for State Senator Victoria Spartz.
The poll of 409 likely voters has Spartz in first place with 32 percent of the vote. Former Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi was second with 14 percent and small businesswoman Beth Henderson was in third place with 13 percent.
The poll was conducted by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Spartz
Below is a complete list of rankings.
Victoria Spartz – 32%
Carl Brizzi – 14%
Beth Henderson – 13%
Micah Beckwith – 8%
Kelly Mitchell – 5%
Chuck Dietzen – 3%
Other Candidates Total – 10%
Undecided – 21%
In addition to getting nearly a third of the vote, Spartz has the highest name ID and favorability. She also has the lowest unfavorable ratings.
Total Name ID
Spartz – 76%
Brizzi – 74%
Henderson – 57%
Favorability
Spartz – 52%
Brizzi – 39%
Henderson – 37%
Unfavorable
Spartz – 10%
Brizzi – 22%
Henderson – 4%
The poll was conducted May 11-13 and has a margin of error of +/-4.9 percent.
When I got married nearly 11 years ago, my father gave me some of the best advice I ever heard. He said, “Son, the day is going to come when you are going to have a disagreement with that lovely new wife of yours. And before you start that argument, ask yourself this question, ‘Is this really the hill you want to die on today?’ Because if it isn’t, let it go and pick your battles for another day.”
The folks who’ve been protesting the police action shooting death of Dreasjon Reed might want to take that advice.
Just a quick recap, Reed led IMPD officers on a high-speed chase, which ended at 62nd and Michigan Road. He got out of the car and fled. The officers pursued him. He was tased, and according to the video he recorded, as he was streaming the entire incident on Facebook Live, the camera fell to the ground. You hear shots fired, and Reed was pronounced dead.
If you listened to the protesters, this was another example of police shooting an unarmed black man. Please note, the officer who is believed to have fired the shots was black, so they couldn’t use the traditional “white cop shoots unarmed black man narrative,” but that still didn’t stop them from expressing their “outrage.”
When I saw the video, I was shocked like everyone else. But unlike the protesters, I decided to do some homework and get the facts before expressing an opinion.
Here’s what I found.
Reed has three outstanding warrants for his arrest for failure to appear. He had one in Marion County for felony intimidation and two out of the Tarrant County-Ft. Worth area in Texas, one of which involved a gun charge. Think about that for a second. A warrant on a gun charge from the state where they give you a gun when you’re born. Why does this matter? Well, when most people have outstanding warrants and don’t want to go to jail, they tend to flee from law enforcement.
Now let’s look at the part about him being “unarmed”; once again, a little homework goes a long way. Contrary to the semi-popular narrative, Reed was not unarmed. He was armed with a weapon law enforcement said he pulled out of his pants and fired shots at the police. Now call me crazy, but I always thought that if you pulled a gun on police, after fleeing and leading them on a high-speed chase and firing shots at them, they tend to fire back.
But Abdul, didn’t they tase him. Yes, but this isn’t the movies. He was still able to reach for his weapon and fire at police. Which by the way, IMPD identified him using in another Facebook live video firing indiscriminately out of a car window.
And here’s the kicker, during the chase, you could see people making comments during the Live stream, most of which were joking and encouraging him. There were maybe two or three comments from individuals telling him to stop, everyone else egged him on, and you see how that ended up.
Now I will say this. The officer who made the remark to the effect that Reed was going to need a closed-casket at his funeral, deserves to be disciplined, as such behavior is unprofessional and uncalled for. By the way, that detective was not one of the officers involved in either the chase nor the shooting.
And speaking of IMPD, near the end of the video, you see an officer come up and turn off the stream. This led to conspiracy theories that IMPD was trying to cover things up by deleting the footage. Obviously, since the footage has gone viral. literally worldwide, that was one of the worst alleged cover-ups I’ve ever seen.
But never let facts get in the way of political grandstanding.
If only these people had put this same energy into protesting the deaths of eight-year-old Rodgerick Payne Jr., 16-year old Nya Cope, or some of the other record murder victims Indianapolis has seen this year, maybe things would be different. Or here’s a thought, had Reed not instigated the event by fleeing law enforcement, we wouldn’t be here right now.
Fortunately, there will be an investigation that will likely get to the bottom of this. However, my instincts tell me what you just read is pretty much how it’s going to play out when it’s all said and done.
Gun-related violence and African-Americans, particularly young men, is a serious issue that requires serious people. As evidenced by the last 24 hours, these people are anything but serious and they shouldn’t be taken seriously.
Governor Eric Holcomb made a stupid mistake, and he admitted it.
This weekend, while at the Governor’s residence in Brown County, he went to go pick up food and forgot to put his mask on and while inside took a picture with a couple of people who were happy to see him.
The photo went up on Facebook, which means it went viral, and now the group I fondly label as the “Holcomb Haters” are demanding his resignation.
The Governor did apologize.
In a written statement, he said, “I spent the night at the Governor’s residence in Brown County. I ordered take out for dinner and ran in to pick it up, leaving my mask in the car. It was a lapse in my usual vigilance. I should have gone back out to the car to get my mask, My apologies to all the healthcare professionals and Hoosiers who are working so hard to slow the spread. This is been a timely reminder that even a six-second snap of a picture requires following the doctors’ recommendation to wear a mask while in public. Lesson learned.”
This also happened a day after the Holcomb announced easing restrictions on Indiana businesses by beginning the phased-in approach to re-opening Indiana.
I think we can all say this was not one of the Governor’s better moments, but it also isn’t an impeachable offense.
As Governor, Holcomb has an additional responsibility to make sure things like this don’t happen, but he’s also human, so things like this are going to happen, regardless. The trick is to do what the Governor did, own it, and apologize. You also use it as a teachable moment to remind people of how to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and while staying vigilant is important.
You do that, and most people move on.
Of course, the Governor’s critics and political opponents are going to pounce on the opportunity. If I were them, I would too. With nearly $8 million in the bank, approval ratings north of 60 percent on his handling of COVID-19, an hour of daily earned statewide media every day for almost five weeks, an election less than six months away and by any objective measure, token challenges at best, for now; I’d take whatever I could get and run with it, provided I remembered to wear a mask and engage in social distancing while doing it.
There’s an old saying that even a stopped clock is right twice a day, in other words, nobody is wrong all the time. I think that analogy is perfected suited when it comes to recent comments by political commentator Van Jones regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the African-American community.
Now before we start, Jones is as progressive as I am not. I will argue if anyone were to implement his views on the economy and health care, America would quickly turn into the northern hemisphere version of Venezuela. However, even with that as a premise, Jones’ recent statements regarding African-Americans’ health and COVID-19 were right on point.
As part of a broader discussion on the impact of COVID-19 on African-Americans, Jones went down the usual laundry list of grievances involving “systematic racism” when it came to health care disparities, which he says are responsible, in part, for the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African-American communities. However, Jones also says lifestyle choices are also partially to blame.
“We must also take more responsibility for our own health. And boosting our immune health must be job number one. The science makes clear that our lifestyle choices — around sleep, nutrition, stress, and more — directly affect our ability to strengthen our immune system. And at a time when the virus is doing disproportionate damage to our communities, we need to ask: what can we do as individuals to get ourselves and our loved ones out of harm’s way?”
Looking at some of the reactions Jones received, you could have sworn he was recommending R. Kelly be a chaperone at your teenage daughter’s slumber party. He was accused of completely ignoring the impact of racism. One colleague of mine said instead of preaching at black people, he needed to focus on what he was going to do to fix the problem. And one individual went so far as to say he views black people the same way white people do.
This is why black folks can’t have nice things.
Jones, who would usually be treated as a hero by these people, has now come under fire because he committed the unforgivable sins of telling the truth while advocating personal responsibility in the context of a broader discussion of addressing a societal ill. Negro, please!!! (That was sarcasm.)
It’s been well-established that the individuals most likely to succumb to COVID-19 are usually those with chronic health conditions like obesity, diabetes, and heart conditions, just to name a few. And if you look at the data, African-Americans are disproportionately more likely to be impacted by the coronavirus than other groups. Here in Indiana, blacks are less than 10 percent of the population, but so far have been 16 percent of the diagnosed cases and more than 17 percent of the deaths. And in major urban centers, that number is even higher.
But with that backdrop, Jones simply saying black folks should eat better, exercise more, use therapy and spirituality to deal with emotional pain rather than drugs of comfort eating is apparently now the equivalent of being the guy who brought the lighter fluid to the cross burning.
And he is not alone. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams (full disclosure is a personal friend, and we have known each other for years) got the activist classes and social justice warriors all worked up over comments he made regarding African-Americans and social distancing, or in other words, telling the truth.
We can have the constructive debate on the causes and solutions to the overall public health crisis in many black communities exposed by COVID-19, but to completely dismiss the thought that you should take some personable responsibility because you are the first line of defense when it comes to protecting your health because it doesn’t fit the narrative that white folks are the reason that black people are sick is ridiculous.
If these people were doctors, they would get sued for medical practice because I’d be the lawyer leading the charge; with “friends” like these, who needs enemies like COVID-19?
