As we get into some serious campaigning here in Indiana there is something a lot of people need to remember.  Democrats tend to vote for Democrats and Republicans tend to vote for Republicans. 

I say this because of the polling data says a third of Hillary supporters won’t vote for Barack and about 25 percent of Barack supporters won’t vote for Hillary.  With that said 65-percent of Hillary’s people and 74-percent of Barack’s WILL vote for the other candidate.

To date, about 30 million people have voted in Democratic primaries that includes Florida and Michigan.  Hillary and Barack are about 15 million votes each.  Using the previous mentioned numbers Barack gets about 22 million of Hillary’s supporters and he gets 15 million of hers.

Now this doesn’t mean those anti-Hillary or anti-Barack voters will all flock to McCain or stay home.  But remember, there have been 30 million people who picked a Democratic ballot.  That far exceeds the number of Republican primary voters.  So even with defections, the odds favor Democrats.

Now don’t forget to vote.

Get ready folks for a political blitz the likes of which this state has never seen. Regardless of the results of Pennsylvania tonight, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be here more than you probably care to think about right now. Hillary does well with older, working class, less-college educated voters who tend to be white. Barack does better with younger, more affluent, more educated voters who tend to be black.

I think the dynamics inherently favor Barack because a significant number of Indiana Democrats are in Marion and Lake Counties which are Barack strongholds. Clinton supporters have conceded Marion and Lake County so she will have to turn out other areas, like South Bend.

Southern Indiana is another story altogether. I don’t see any reason why Congressmen Baron Hill or Brad Elsworth would want Hillary at the top of the ticket in areas where she is not popular.  And Barack has to figure out a way to connect with those blue-collar Reagan Democrats.  Of course this is all politics and a day is a lifetime.

I never thought as an outsider looking into Indiana’s culture that I would ever say it was a good thing that this state didn’t change. But the smartest thing I’ve seen Hoosiers do in a long time was not change the state’s primary date.

Congratulations my friends, you are now the king maker or queen maker as the case may be! And remember, with great power, comes great responsibility!

If today feels a little warmer, it might be the heat being generated between the two Democratic candidates for Governor.

Jill Long Thompson has unveiled a new ad going after Jim Schellinger’s record, accusing him of lobbying for higher property taxes. Schellinger is an architect whose firm designed schools.

Schellinger spokeswoman Jen Wagner says the ad is misleading and has no merit. She also says it shows Thompson is willing to go to any lengths to win. Wagner also says the Thompson camp wasn’t telling the truth in its ad, because it featured schools that weren’t designed by Schellinger’s firm.

Jeff Harris, a spokesman for Thompson, admits the photographer they hired for the ad shot the wrong schools, but the right images were put in within 24 hours of its airing. Harris went on to say despite that mix up, the central message of the ad is correct in that it shows Schellinger advocates higher taxes and it shows the differences between the two candidates.

Harris says Thompson supports freezing the sales tax on gas and helping the Hoosier economy.

This race is definitely getting more interesting. The primary is May 6.

For those of you who plan to vote in your school board elections,  there is a question that you need to ask.  It’s not about property taxes or spending, but ask the candidates about their position on zero tolerance.

Although some educators will say it is the most fair way to issue punishment, it is really a cop out and a shield for school districts to hide behind and a way for them to avoid making hard decisions.  You would be shocked at how many administrators avoid making tough calls and hand out unfair punishment.

You need to make sure you know where your candidate is on the issue and make sure they explain it to you to your satisfaction.

Don’t let them hide behind zero tolerance!

I don’t usually talk about the Congressional race in Indiana’s 2nd Congressional district, but I can’t let this one go by.  Hoosier Access is reporting, and I saw the photo, that 2nd Congressional District candidate Tony Zirkle addressed a gathering of Neo-Nazis to commemorate Adolph Hitler’s birthday.

This guy is nuts, but apparently smart enough to keep the event off his list of appearances on his campaign’s website.

By the way, the event took place in my hometown of Chicago;  I hate Illinois Nazis.

Here’s some news from around Indiana this morning.  You can feel free to decide which category it should fit into.

Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger continue to go at each other throats.  I wonder if anyone is paying attention.

Mitch Daniels is telling Republicans it’s time to let Reagan go.

The 7th Congresional District is probably more competitive than anyone thought.

After Tuesday, Hoosiers need to brace themselves.

There was a forum tonight at the Light of the World Church featuring the candidates for Congress.  Since the race is on the Democratic side, that’s where I’ll focus my attention.  The main four candidates (you know who they are) all agreed that faith matters to voters and people of faith have a role to play in politics, while still keeping up the “wall” of church and state.

They all also agreed that moral issues are the tired debate, in my opinion, over abortion and same-sex marriage.  They also agreed that a person’s religion should not be held against them, but instead voters should look at their actions.  What I took from the debate, at least for now, is that the two front-runners are Andre Carson and Dr. Woody Myers.  Carson has his natural base and Myers has the media presence.

What I think their race will come down to are this year’s 56,000 voters who have either updated their registration or are voting for the first time in Marion County. They are looking like the king maker, more and more.

My advice to the candidates, pray.

A new poll shows a tighter race in the Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District. The poll done by Global Strategy Group shows Andre Carson with 34 percent, followed by Dr. Woody Myers with 28 percent. State Rep. David Orentlicher has 13 percent and Carolene Mays , 7 percent. 18 percent of the voters are undecided.

The poll was done of 409 likely Democratic voters and has a plus or minus error of 4.9. That same poll taken in March showed Carson leading the pack with 45 percent and Orentlicher at 22 percent.

It will be interesting to see where the undecideds go and if they break for Myers who has had a very heavy television and radio presence.

The girlfriend and I are taking a road trip today so I won’t have anything up until tomorrow night. There is a 7th District candidate forum Sunday evening at Light of the World Church in Indianapolis. I’ll have a full report for you then. In the meanwhile, feel to talk about whatever is on your mind. Play nice.

It looks like we might have had a minor earthquake this morning.  It hit about 5:35 and lasted about 10-15 seconds.  The station here at 92nd and Meridian shook a little bit, but there was no damage.  I was in the car coming up Meridian and didn’t feel a thing.  I got a call from a friend whose family lives in Southern Indiana near the New Madrid fault and it was a lot stronger there.  Let me know if you felt anything this morning.

Update at 6:02 a.m. – Fox News is reporting it was a 5.4 earthquake  out of southeast Indiana and southwest IL.

7:35 a.m. – Here is some more info on the quake.   And here’s something on the history.