I’m trying to decide who had a worse Sunday, Peyton Manning or John McCain.   

Between Barack Obama drawing a collective crowd of 170,000 during two campaign stops in the battleground state of Missouri, raising a record $150,000,000 for the month of September (more the George W. Bush and John Kerry combined in the Fall of 2004) and the endorsement of retired General Colin Powell, infighting between the McCain camp and the Florida and Virgina Republican parties, the list goes on.

Now depsite all that, I still don’t think anyone should write the obituary on the McCain campaign, but someone might want to look for the coroner’s phone number.

By about two weeks out, most races are pretty much set and not a whole lot changes unless there is some major disaster and I would argue we had that during the meltdown of our nation’s financial sectors.

I would not count out John McCain’s ability to come back from the near political dead, he’s done it before, but even a cat only has nine lives.

Feel free to share your thoughts.

This cannot be good news for the Jill Long Thompson campaign.

The NW Times of  Indiana has endorsed Mitch Daniels for Governor over JLT.  While I never think newspaper endorsements do much to move voters, it does show something when the premiere paper in an area where JLT should do well and Daniels not so well  chooses the latter over the former.

Here are some excerpts.

Each has experience at the federal level, Thompson as a former congresswoman and Daniels as a former director of the Office of Management and Budget.

What separates them most is that Daniels has detailed plans and ideas without adding taxes, while Thompson has plans that lack specifics, including how she would pay for her generalist ideas.

Thompson, always on the attack, has tried to link Daniels to President Bush and the national budget deficit, but Daniels is no longer the president’s budget director. In fact, as governor, Daniels has pulled Indiana out of the red ink left by his predecessors and placed the state solidly in the black.

Here’s another on the lease of the Toll Road…

A key issue that Thompson has attacked Daniels over time and again is the long-term lease of the Indiana Toll Road for $3.8 billion. She is wrong, for the facts are on Daniels side. That lease, the centerpiece of Daniels’ Major Moves transportation initiative, generates more interest on the state’s invested money in just one year than the previous 50 years of tolls collected under the state’s operation.

Thompson says a new analysis she spawned shows the road was worth more than $11 billion over that time if the state would have increased tolls it charged.

In other words, she would have passed along a quasi tax increase.

Here’s what they said on jobs…

For economic development, Thompson proposes a complicated three-tier system for counties that would move away from tax incentives and reward companies for such things as hiring at least five new employees, providing half the cost of premiums for group health insurance and making other investments. But she provides no specifics.

Daniels helped create the Northwest Indiana Regional Development Authority to leverage economic development money to get more bang for our tax dollars. It is already helping attract jobs to the region and holds great promise for future job growth. And while it has helped bring jobs to the region, the program is being guided by local people.

Thompson hammers Daniels over the state’s rate of job losses, yet the fact is that Indiana’s unemployment rate is less than any of its neighbors and the state has been recognized nationally for its business climate. This during a time of economic crisis in the nation.

Here’s the bottom line…

In all three gubernatorial debates this fall, Horning proved the comedian and Thompson the vicious attack dog — neither of which Indiana needs for a governor. Daniels has been the sole voice of sanity and reason, offering solid ideas with the details showing they can work.

The bottom line is that Daniels has proven himself to be an out-of-the-box thinker who gets good things done for the people of Indiana. He was honored this year by Governing Magazine for his accomplishments and for being a strong state leader.

Like I said, newspaper endorsements don’t move voters, but they can certainly catch attention at times.

Editor’s note: A number of my friends in the newspaper business reminded me that the NW Times is a right-leaning newspaper.  In that light, I also promise to post the endorsement of the Gary Post Tribune.

I spent some time yesterday looking at the Electoral Map and came to a startling, but obvious, conclusion. Come election night, Indiana could determine just show how soon the Presidential race ends.  It requires a couple assumptions which I don’t think are too far off the plantation.  

Let’s assume Barack Obama takes most of the Northeast.  He’s got Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and D.C.  That gives him 111 Electoral votes.

Let’s assume John McCain does well in the South. He’s Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina and West Virgina.  (Put aside the fact some polling data shows a somewhat competitive race in West Virgina and Georgia could switch based the heavy African-American turnout and Bob Barr pealing off some Libertarian-leaning Republicans.) That puts McCain at 62 votes.

Now here is where it gets interesting.  

If Obama runs the North Carolina, Virgina and Florida table he’s got an additional 55 electoral votes which takes him to 172.   Now let’s keep heading west.  McCain gets Lousiana and Arkansas (15 electoral votes) taking him to 77.  Obama gets Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and I’m putting Missouri in his column after 100,000 people showed in St. Louis for an Obama rally, 75,000 showed up Kansas City.  That takes Obama from 111 electoral votes to 248.

You only need 270 to win.  And I still haven’t counted the other half of the country nor Indiana or Ohio.

Neither candidate winning Ohio will put them over the 270 mark.  An Ohio win takes McCain to 97 electoral votes and Obama to 268.  If either candidate wins both states, McCain goes to 108; Obama 279 and is the next President.

Granted, these are based on some assumptions, but if Obama wins Indiana the show is over and everyone can go home and go to bed because there is no way McCain catch up without pulling some big, giant rabbit out of his hat on the West Coast.

So not only is Indiana in play, it is a crucial place for McCain to stay in the game.  I think the fundamentals still favor McCain for a victory here, which is good news for the candidate because he’s gonna need it.

The only thing that wasn’t standard about Republican Vice-Presidential nominee’s speech this afternoon is that it was in Indiana with less than three weeks before the election.

Thousands of people (about 15,000 according the fire marshall) jammed the Verizon Music Center in Noblesville to see Palin.   The speech she gave was basically the same speech she’s given in other parts of the county sans “Hoosiers” being one of her favorite films and a couple of Indy 500 references.

In a nutshell, here’s what she said…

Taxes/Economy

• Obama wants to raise taxes, McCain wants to lower them.

Voter Fraud

• People are concerned and Obama should come clean about his associations with ACORN.

Experience

• She talked about her record as Governor for cutting taxes and reforming government.

Life

• She alluded to abortion and that every child should be placed first.

Energy

• She called for the “all of the above” approach to solving America’s energy issues.

Campaign Tone

• Palin said it wasn’t negative campaigning to point out Obama’s record.  She also said Obama and Joe Biden were looking to the past while she and John McCain were looking to the future.

Palin did a good job of electrifying the GOP crowd, which they will need in the tough race ahead.

The only thing that wasn’t standard at this rally as opposed to others is that there was a rumor floating that I would be introducing Palin to the crowd.  But somehow I think a Black attorney from the south side of Chicago whose middle name begins with the letter “H” who is also mistaken for being a Muslim might have confused some people.

I’m picking up some mixed signals on the Presidential race here in Indiana.   Although Sarah Palin’s visit today shows the national party is finally taking this state seriously, earlier this week during a visit to the Hoosier state U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham reportedly told McCain supporters if they want to do some good they should go next door to Ohio and help McCain win that state.

And to make life even more complicated, the latest Zogby  poll on Indiana is reporting that McCain and Obama are running almost neck and neck.   McCain leads 48.5 to Obama’s 44.3.  The poll of 450 likely voters was conducted October 9-13 and has a margin of error of 4.7 percent.

While I still think McCain will win in Indiana, it won’t be by much.

Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin is in town this afternoon.  She’ll be speaking at the Verizon Music Center.  As much as I love covering political events the thought of being anywhere near I-69 at four in the afternoon is enough to make my head explode.

Governor Mitch Daniels will be attending a ribbon cutting ceremony in northern Indiana. 

I think Mitch has the right idea.

Jill Long Thompson and I need to sit down and have a real long talk.  No, I take that back.  With 19 days and change left until the election we need to have a really, really, really long talk.

Although I have my opinions, I always tried to keep an open mind with her campaign and never take anything out of context and be fair.  But yesterday was it.  I am now officially convinced that in an era where the Republican brand is about as appealing as O.J. Simpson at a Goldman family reunion,  in an era where the incumbent Governor has some major vulnerabilities, and in an era where every voter and homeless guy is asking for change,  in a state of 6.2 million people Indiana Democrats may have actually picked the one person who can lose against Mitch Daniels.   I though JLT had a chance at winning this race, despite the odds, but I think this race is now over and she will have no one to thank/blame but herself.

I say this because of yesterday’s news conference where JLT made the accusation that the state of Indiana’s Major Moves funds were being invested in junk bonds and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and she blamed Daniels for it.  She called for tighter controls on the state’s investments strategy.

The problem with this line of attack, which for the record started in the political rumor mill, made its way into the blogosphere, into the Tuesday night debate and then the Wednesday morning news conference is that it’s 20 days late and $700 billion short.

The problem with tying Major Moves funds to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it would have been a story had their not been a federal bailout that both Presidential candidates voted for and is effectively over for all intent and purposes.

Second, someone in the 800 block of north Delaware needs to read the Indiana Constitution because the State Treasurer oversees Indiana’s investments.  Now did Indiana invest in some risky stocks, sure.  Anyone who has a 401 K or mutual fund probably has a risky investment in their portfolio.  But there’s a difference when those investments are 1-3% of your portfolio versus 40-70%.  And then to add insult to injury, the campaign puts out information saying the state should have got $11billion for the Toll Road.

I can forgive a lot of things but blatant careless and bad campaigning aren’t two of them.   I’m assuming that the JLT camp has been upset and distracted by the fact that they are behind in the polls and Lt. Governor Becky Skillman has more cash on hand in her campaign than JLT.  I’m not making this up. Whatever it is, JLT’s last best hope to win the Governor’s office will be the Obama wave in Indiana.  

Because if she does win, it won’t be because of anything she did, but in spite of everything she did. 

Okay guys, I’m throwing this one up 20 minutes before the final Presidential debate ends…

1. Who won?
2. Who lost?
3. Who’s Joe The Plumber?
4. Did the race change?

All due apologies to my friends at 300 N. Pennsylvannia.

It’s amazing what people talk about behind closed doors when they think no one is listening.

Strategy or Tragedy in the Making

In a recent caucus meeting, City-County Council Democrats planned their next line of attack against Republican Mayor Greg Ballard.  The Dems are planning to go after the Mayor on the issue of abandoned housing.  Toward the end of the year, Democrats will say the Mayor has no plan to deal with abandoned housing and doesn’t even have an accurate measure of the problem. They also plan to say the Mayor needs to do a better job of dealing with home foreclosures.  So I guess that means the Mayor should have to go negotiate with banks.  They’re also going to accuse the Mayor of squandering the $29 million HUD grant.

Friends in Low Places

Speaking of Democrats, City-County Councilor Doris Minton McNeil isn’t getting much love from her own party.  Word is she’s been contacting the Ballard administration in an effort to get felony battery charges dropped against her for allegedly shoving a police officer while intoxicated this past summer.

Traffic Jam

The grumbling is beginning about VP nominee Sarah Palin’s visit Friday to the Verizon Music Center.   I’m hearing political insiders wonder how much headache it will be to get in and out of the Center at four in the afternoon at one of the worst places for traffic congestion in Indiana.

Okay, I finally watched the gubernatorial debate from last night, but I did something a little different this time.

I did a shot of whiskey every time Andy Horning mentioned the Constitution.

I did a shot a Jack Daniels everytime JLT talked about her MBA, PhD, growing up on a farm, or was cut off by the moderator for going over her allotted time.

I did a tequila shot every time Mitch Daniels pointed to a specific when answering the questions.

And I took a puff on my cigar every time I thought that unless something major happens between now and Election Day, this race is pretty much over.

I am amazed I can still function this morning.