The words below are cross-posted from The Capitol Wacthblog and written by my colleague, Republican Mike O’Brien.  I think it illustrates a bog hurdle the Dan Coats campaign is going to have to overcome.

Everything I know about Dan Coats, I’ve learned in the past ten days.  When Coats was first elected to Congress I was two years old.  When he retired from the U.S. Senate I was a senior in high school.  By the time I was in college and focused on politics as a career, he was in Germany.  I am in the odd position of being a Republican Party insider who has no connection to or memory of the Republican field’s uber-insider and presumed front-runner.  I’m not alone.

For the 40 and under crowd, the name Dan Coats carries with it little more than inherited admiration borrowed from those who recall his nearly two decades of public service.  I respect Dan Coats because people who I respect, respect him.  But at a time when the Republican Party is reinventing itself and ushering in fresh candidates who bring new energy and ideas, the hopes for a successful Coats campaign rest with a generation of voters on Medicare.  That’s not exactly the post-Bayh future I was hoping for and it’s hard to see how Coats can effectively attract broad support and turn it into electoral success.

However unfair attacks on Coats may be, Republicans who need to make the case for principled, conservative leadership in Washington will instead be forced to spend the next nine months explaining away lobbying contracts while making the case that Coats is an Indiana resident.  Those issues, though generally unhelpful, were a wash in a campaign against Evan Bayh.  They are now a crippling liability against any one of the potential Democratic Party candidates.

Republicans needed Coats to raise the profile of this race and put it in the national spotlight against a political giant.  Now an open seat, it is among Republican’s top targets.  Coats had his time, and I’m told he served his state well.  Let’s thank him for his service and move on.

If  you’re interested in knowing how the candidates for the U.S. Senate are doing over with certified signature collection, I’ve got some interesting numbers for you from across all Indiana nine Congressional districts…

• Dan Coats – 14,113.
• Don Bates, Jr – 6,173.
• John Hostetler – 6,946.  (And he may still have some out)
• Marlin Stutzman – 5,082.  (And he may still have some out as well)
• Richard Behney – 6,423.
• Evan Bayh – 6,999.  (I know he dropped out.)
• Tamara D’ippolito – 150.  (And this is what the national media was getting all excited over!  Whatever!)

I learned a lot of things this week when Evan Bayh announced he was not to running for re-election.  Here they are…

1. Someone in this town can actually keep a secret.  Bayh has been going back and forth for weeks on whether to run again and only his closet friends and advisers knew this and not one of them said a thing.
2. 90% of the national media punditocracy have absolutely no clue as to what they are talking about.   Anyone who thought Tamara  d’Ippolito seriously had a chance of getting on the ballot was on crack.  The next time the nationals decide to start talking, maybe they want to call someone who’s actually covered the race.
3. Is there any real reason to keep the current primary system?  The Democratic State Central Committee will pick Bayh’s replacement while Republicans are headed towards a brutal primary. Either get rid of the primary and let the party nominate their candidates or do an open primary system and let the top two vote-getters square off in the general election.
4. Sometimes taking a chance against what seems insurmountable odds (running against Evan Bayh) actually pays off (Greg Ballard).
5. Was Indiana politics ever this interesting before I got here?

Just a few thoughts.

In case you’re wondering how the signature count certification was going for your favorite U.S. Senate candidate, here’s a rundown from the 7th Congressional District.

Marlin  Stutzman – 561

John Hostetler – 556

Don Bates, Jr.  – 502

Richard Behney – 647

Dan Coats – 800

Tamara d’Ippolito – 3

The numbers come straight from Marion County Voter Registration.  Some signatures for Hostetler and Coats are still being certified.   And in case you were wondering, Evan Bayh had 533.

I have to give Evan Bayh credit.  He did something no Republican could ever do,  drove himself out of office.   Now granted it was more like walking away, but still the Senator’s decision not to run again has sent shock waves through Indiana’s political landscape like an earthquake through Haiti.

Of course the big question on everyone’s mind is of course,  “why”?  Why step down? Why not run again?  Why put another relatively safe seat at risk of switching political parties?  Bayh said it was because Washington had become too partisan and he just didn’t love Congress anymore.   I don’t doubt it, but Washington had been partisan forever.   I’m not saying Bayh’s answer wasn’t truthful, I just don’t think he wasn’t telling the whole story.    My hypothesis on why the man with $13 million in the bank and internal polls showing a 55-percent re-elect victory  decided to walk away is simple;  the seat was not safe enough.

Feel free to take that in for a second.

Although I don’t have the institutional memory of my other colleagues in the press corps, what I have picked during my tenure here is that Evan Bayh loves two things, his family and a safe bet.   Look at his record as Governor and Senator and words from the Obama administration officials about him never “coloring outside the lines.” Put all that together and what do you get, someone who like a safe bet and sure thing.   And for everyday he stayed in the race, it was his chances got less and less safe and less and less sure.

Was it because he was a Democrat?  Not entirely it was more because he was an incumbent!

An incumbent in this political climate is like me selling bean pies at a KKK rally, the people around you aren’t happy to see you and unless you pull some fancy footwork out of Blazing Saddles, you can forget about ever being seen again.

Now before we go any further, Republicans shouldn’t get too excited, the average national polling data says more people consider themselves independents than Ds or Rs.  Throw in that fact, and voter angst and anger, it makes sense for Bayh to bolt  even though his re-elects were in the mid-50s, Bayh likely wanted what he was used to having; a 60% plus comfortable win.  Unfortunately, he would have to spend a lot of time and almost all his cash just to break even at best.

So what does Bayh do now?  Well,  first make sure your successor is already picked long before you announce you’re stepping down.  Rumor has it 8th District Congressman Brad Ellsworth is the fan favorite.  Replacing him, I hear, would likely be former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg.  (Remember, this is all speculation at this point.)  Also having $13 million in the bank is a nice bit of walking around money to have when times are tight all over and reminding people it’s still your party and they can cry if they want to.  And you can use the cash to build IOUs over time should you decided to get back into politics, say like in 2012.

I’m sure there are a lot of theories about the Senator’s true motivation.   Some good, some the rantings of madmen.   And only a handful people know the whole story, however until something more plausible comes along, this is my story and I’m sticking to it.   At the end of the day Evan Bayh did what Evan Bayh does best, he played it safe and took a pass.

Here are Evan Bayh’s comments shortly after announcing he is not running for another term.  I’m still working the phones and dissecting all this for some informed analysis.

Evan Bayh

Here’s Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker’s reaction.

Dan Parker

I’ll have more for you in the morning.

Evan Bayh is announcing this afternoon that he is NOT running for re-election.   A spokesman for the Indiana Democratic Party is not commenting, however my sources tell me state party staff just found this morning that he was not running again.   Bayh is making his announcement at IUPUI at 2 p.m.  I plan to be there and will have  more then.

12:09 p.m. update

A GOP spokesman just told me they thank Bayh for his service and they always believed the race was competitive and Bayh’s exit doesn’t change  that.

Since it’s Presidents Day, I’m taking a little break from blogging.  I’ll be back tomorrow with some interesting results regarding Legislative surveys and township government.  I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised at the findings.   Enjoy the day and go buy a mattress or something.

And the just for the record, my favorite past Presidents were Lincoln, Roosevelt (Teddy) and Nixon (pre-Watergate).

In a rare joint blogging venture I asked Chris Worden of Indy’s Painfully Objective Political Analysis to tag team with me in covering the local slating conventions of both the Marion County Democratic and Republican parties.   He hung out with the Democrats while I was with the GOP.  His comments appear right after mine.

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It Really Was A Grand Old Party

Whenever I want to gauge the mindset of a political operation, I look for little signs that act as canaries in the coal mine.  For the Marion County GOP , it was the slating contest for Indiana House District 99, the seat currently held by Vanessa Summers.  There was actually a contest between two candidates to take on an incumbent who won by 88 percent the last time around and there was only a Libertarian on the ballot against her.

That tells me the local GOP is caught up in the national fever that will make this a tough year for Democrats nationwide.  I also spoke to individuals who want to challenge long-time Democratic politicos like Bill Crawford and Greg Porter.    Can they win?  Maybe, maybe not, but what it does tell me is that if the GOP is willing to run into such hostile territory, and spend real time, energy and effort it forces the opposition to defend turf it isn’t used to defending and it puts a strain on resources that could be used somewhere else.  If this strategy sounds familiar it’s the same one that was done by the Obama campaign in 2008.

At the top of the ticket, the good news for Republicans is that their precinct committeemen were very excited about the candidacies of Mark Massa for prosecutor and Dennis Fishburn for Sheriff (he beat Bart McAtee and Steve Davis) and Carlos May for the 7th District.

In the race for prosecutor, I argue the controversies surrounding Carl Brizzi’s exit and Helen Marchal’s entrance and sudden exit were actually good for the party. It had held the prosecutor’s office for 16 years and was starting to get somewhat complacent.  There’s nothing like a smack in the back of the head by the winds of political fortune to make you get off your rear and get your act together. I doubt the  Democrats plan to attack Massa as a “puppet of the Governor” will get much traction, as the Governor’s approval ratings are at about 70 percent in Indianapolis.  Also, unlike Marchal, Massa doesn’t have the baggage that comes along with being part of the Brizzi administration.  He also gave a speech that was well-received by delegates.

Dennis Fishburn should prove to be an interesting candidate against John Layton.  While Layton has the backing of the Sheriff and County party, there are some potential landmines out there which could put his candidacy in a tailspin.  Fishburn will mainly have to worry for now if McAtee will use his resources to run against the slate.

For May, running in the 7th is always an uphill battle for Republicans, however in this climate no one should take anything for granted nor for a lost cause.  It will be interesting to see how May taps into the Latino vote in Marion County and whether that is enough to change any dynamics in an off-year election.

Speaking of minorities, I have covered the last five slating conventions and have never seen one with so many people of color and under 40.  It is definitely not your father’s Republican party.

Overall, my assessment for the local GOP is that they are energized and ready for battle, which they will need in a county that tends to favor the other side.  If they can pack the ballots like they did their convention hall, they should do just fine.

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Democratic Slating Convention Notes

Democrats packed the Indiana State Fairground today for their slating convention.  Every seat was full and the walls were lined, which was surprising since the only contested races were for two township offices and a state rep slot.  In short, if the Democratic Party is supposed to be on its heels, somebody forgot to tell Marion County.

The voting portion got off to a rousing start when beloved labor leader, Bob Voorhies (the husband of Marion County Recorder Julie Voorhies and the father of state representative candidate Brett Voorhies), rose to make a motion to accept by acclimation a slate of uncontested candidates – Terry Curry for Prosecutor, John Clayton for Sheriff, Beth White for Clerk, Julie Voorhies for Recorder, and Billie Breaux for Auditor.

Voorhies punched the air prize-fighter style, which prompted a roar from the crowd, as he told all he was in a battle with stage-four cancer.  Voorhies said he would ignore doctors advice and go door-to-door to defeat the GOP.

Former state rep and prosecutor candidate David Orentlicher then delivered a brief “seconding speech,” that contained a strong plug for Curry.  David O. stepped aside last week and endorsed Curry, which lets you know there are certain privileges to be had if you make nice with the party).

Voting was completed with impressive efficiency and results were known quickly.

By a 39-1 vote, Voorhies won the right to challenge incumbent Republican Phil Hinkle in House District 92, wich covers Wayne and Pike Townships and the town of Speedway, where Brett has been a lifetime resident.  Hinkle will have his hands full in November.

In Warren Township, Garland Graves, the former assistant corporation counsel for Mayor Bart Peterson and current Warren Township court administrator, defeated attorney Todd Woodmansee, 48-16.  Graves got a big push from the endorsement of Marion County Clerk Beth White, and his long-term relationships with party folk paid dividends.

Graves said he was extremely humbled by the support he received today, and added that he would employ a grass-roots, door-to-door strategy.  Woodmansee promptly congratulated Graves and vowed to support his effort.

The Warren Township race became a two-man fight when incumbent Ricardo Rivera did not file for re-election.  Rivera’s mother’s illness and her subsequent passing last month made it impossible for him to campaign in the way he needed to retain the seat.  Our sympathies go out to Judge Rivera.

In Lawrence Township, Judie Conley, the wife of former city-county councilor “King Ro” Conley (who I’m told wants his seat back), defeated political newcomer Jackie Butler, 33-16.

Without impugning the credentials of Graves or Conley, some party folk I spoke with were concerned about lack of enthusiasm and ballot fatigue among African-American voters with all-white township tickets in areas that are increasingly diverse.  The fact that Warren Township Trustee Jeff Bennett’s victory in 2006 didn’t come until a recount challenge would certainly have impressed on folks the need to get voters excited about the township ticket.  The same could be said for Lawrence.
Consensus among precinct committeepersons today though, was that the biggest “problem” was too many good candidates.

Other notes of interest…

Marion County Prosecutor candidate Greg Bowes was on-hand, though he opted not to participate in the slating process.  Bowes has stated emphatically that he will stay in the race until the party’s primary voters tell him to exit.  (Look for a May checkout).

Also on hand was newly-announced Mayoral candidate Ron Gibson.  I observed Gibson for a long while, and while he was greeted warmly by a few folks, he also spent a lot of time looking like a man lost in a crowded airport.  On one occasion, a lady who was seated waved to a man several rows back.  Gibson waved back enthusiastically before realizing the wave was not intended for him.  The reception didn’t seem to bode well for Gibson’s mayoral prospects.

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Special thanks to Chris for agreeing to do this.  Although we have differing political philosophies, I think he does the community a service when he presents his points of view on events.