They rallied, they yelled, the screamed and at the end of the day it didn’t make much of a difference.   I’m talking about the electoral victory of former, and would like to be next, U.S. Senator Dan Coats.  According to the Associated Press results Coats beat a crowded primary field with slightly less than 40% of Republican primary voters.

Actually, it was a pretty good night for incumbents.  Dan Burton barely beat back several challengers and eeked out a win in the 5th District.   Todd Rokita worked hard and coasted to safe plurality in the 4th.   In the 3rd District Mark Souder beat a well financed challenger.   And Jackie Warlorksi, incumbent State Representative, won by her primary by the biggest majority of any other Congressional candidate.

Even at the local level, with the exception of Marvin Scott (by the way, I think we can all that one for Andre Carson now and never speak of it again), the establishment pretty much won in most races.  There is something to be said for organization and name ID.  That’s something the tea party movement has yet to grasp.  It’s not enough to protest, hold meetings and scream.  You need to learn how to form coalitions, engage in real grass roots get out the vote organizing, and God forbid, come out as a group and pick a candidate.

I know it may suck and it you may not like it, but real life is like that some times, deal with it.  You’ll sleep better.

I’ll have something to say about local races in the next post.

With two hours before the poll close, here’s how I think things are going to turn out tonight.  I put a an asterisk mark behind my title because I still think there is enough of a an x-factor out there that anything can still happen.  So with that said, here’ we go…

• U.S. Senate – Dan Coats by a nose, but don’t be surprised if Marlin Stutzman pulls a late upset.  He’s been gaining ground lately.
• 5th District – Toss up between Dan Burton and Luke Messer, however Mike Murphy with his TV ads and John McGoff with his ground game could be spoilers.  And don’t rule out those 5th District Democrats who may crossover to vote against Burton.
• 4th District – Todd Rokita.  Name ID and TV help.  He also has one of the architects of Mitch Daniels’ campaign victory working for him.
• 7th District Republican – Carlos May.  Look at Marvin Scott’s past records.
• Marion County Sheriff – Toss up in both parties.  John Layton and Bart McAtee have the money, but Mark Brown has a major undertow of African-American support and Dennis Fishburn has a lot of underground game.
• Marion County Prosecutor – Terry Curry.  The odds are just to much against Greg Bowes.  Mark  Massa has no opponent.
• Local School Referendum – Toss up.  If more people with kids come out they pass, old people, they lose.

Those are my predictions with a big giant caveat emptor.  I can and will say this, even if these are wrong, I will not be surprised at the outcomes, and have a logical explanation for why things turned out the way they did.

The polls close in two hours, three for parts of Indiana in the Central Time Zone.  We’ll have complete coverage tonight on-line at wxnt.com.

It’s Primary Day.  You know what to do.   Quick word of caution, if you are voting in Marion County, be patient.  Because there are so many people running for precinct committeeman or state delegate there are a lot of new people working the polling places.  Normally, it’s party insiders working the polls, however if you or a family member are on the ballot, by law you are not supposed to work as an election judge or inspector.   Early voter numbers are the highest they’ve been in 20 years.    You can find your polling place here.  So go do your part and make your favorite political blogger proud. I’ll be back later today with analysis.

With 24 hours left to go before the Indiana primary begins, I’m making this space available for you to promote the candidate of your choice.

It doesn’t matter if it’s federal, state, county, township, school board; Republican, Democrat or Libertarian.  The only thing I ask is that you explain why you’re voting for someone and don’t use this as an opportunity to bash another candidate.

So with that said, ladies and gentlemen, mesdames et messieurs, meine damen und herren, the floor is yours…

With 48 hours to go before May primary, I’m hearing lots of interesting tidbits of gossip, rumor and blatant innuendo.  And as always, take it for what it’s worth.

Apparently there is a big concern that Democratic voters in the 5th District will pull a reverse Operation Chaos and grab a Republican ballot making life interesting for the candidates.  Hamilton County Democratic Chairman Keith Clock is cautioning members of his party not to do that because their candidate of choice, Dr. Nasser Hanna, has an opponent in his primary and Clock is worried the challenger may win if enough Ds switch over and grab an R ballot.

Absentee voting in Marion County is the best its been in 20 years for a midterm election.   According to the Clerk’s Office,  more than 5,000 absentee votes have been cast, a 50% increase over 2006.   A general breakdown of those figures shows a 2-1 Republican/Democrat ratio.   Republicans have conducted an aggressive a mail-in campaign on behalf of their slated Sheriff candidate Dennis Fishburn.

Speaking of absentee/early voting, Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita says early voting is up 20% since the 2006 mid-term elections.  This contradicts an Associated Press story last week which said early voting in Indiana was less than or about equal to 2006’s.

Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy is telling prosecutor candidate Greg Bowes to go pound sand.  Bowes’ campaign was denied poll watching credentials.  Treacy does have the right to deny the credentials as candidates and their campaigns are not legally entitled to them.  Wow, I just agreed with Ed Treacy on something, mark this day down.

And speaking of County Chairman, by now you know that GOP Chairman Tom John’s ex-wife has accused him of forgery and Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi is asking a special prosecutor to look into the matter.  When I was asked what I thought of all this, I told someone , fundamentally, I agree with what both Gary Welsh and Paul Ogden have written on the subject.   (What day was this again?)  That when a bitter ex-wife makes this kind of allegation  more than a year after her divorce to make life difficult for the person paying her spousal support, I have a hard time taking it seriously.

As much as we talk about voter anger and frustration, I’m wondering how much of that will actually manifest itself on Election Day?

I base this question on a couple bits of data.  First, for all the talk about voter anger the number of people voting absentee in the 2010 midterm elections hasn’t really changed all that much from the 2006 midterm elections.  According to the Associated Press, mail-in ballots are either at or below what they were four years ago.

In addition, the poll done by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics shows a third of people who identify themselves as tea party members are supporting former Senator and Ambassador Dan Coats.

But really did it for me was an e-mail I received from the Indianapolis Tea Party with a statement that they do not endorse candidates, but instead do voter education.  That’s all fine and good, but there is something to be said about a political organization endorsing a candidate.

Each of these actions lead me to think that for all the talk of anger and outrage, Hoosiers may slip back into their old patterns and not really make much change at all.  We’ll see.

The Indiana primary is Tuesday, May 4th.

With just a few days to go before the Indiana primary, a new poll has former U.S. Senator Dan Coats leading amongst Republican voters. 

The poll conducted by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics has the following breakdown.

• Dan Coats – 36%.
• John Hostettler – 24%.
• Marlin Stutzman – 18%.
• Don Bates, Jr.- 6%.
• Richard Behney – 4%.
• Undecided – 13%.

The poll of 407 registered voters was taken from April 22-26 by Survey USA and has margin of error of 5%.

Coats polled best with those identifying themselves as strong Republicans, Republicans or leaning Republican.  Hostettler ranked the highest with independent voters.   Coats also did well with those who identified themselves as tea party supporters, with Stutzman coming in second.

The poll also notes that Coats, Stutzman and Hostettler all defeat likely Democrat nominee Brad Elsworth in a general election,  however 20-25% of the voters are undecided.

A new poll for the Republican race for the U.S. Senate commissioned by IPFW and conducted by Survey USA is expected out tomorrow by noon.  No official word yet on what it will reveal, but the chatter is that Marlin Stutzman and John Hostettler are fighting for first place, Dan Coats is next and Don Bates, Jr. and Richard Behney are in the rear.  But that’s chatter and we’ll know by noon tomorrow.

Well, I have to give it to Indianapolis Public Schools, while they are not the brightest bulbs in the socket, they did manage to get around the state’s Open Door Laws and illustrate another reason why the taxpaying public has no confidence in them.

You may recall my blog post last month about a Michigan group that was filming an IPS School Board budget information session for a documentary and they were thrown out by IPS Spokeswoman Mary Louise Bewley for being “disingenuous” even though they did not cause a disturbance nor intrude on the meeting.  The Education Action Group later filed a complaint with the state’s public access counselor’s office.

Public Access Counselor Andrew Kossack  released an opinion saying while  the school district did not violate the state’s open door law because there was not a quorum of board members present.  Kossack did say that if IPS were to hold ” serial meetings” without a quorum of its members it would run afoul of the law.

The Public Access Counselor did not let the District get off scott free.  In his opinion, Kossack noted the following.

It is disturbing that two members of the public were apparently singled out for unspecified “disingenuous purposes” and asked to leave a meeting that was otherwise open to the public and relevant to the public’s business.

I frankly think it’s a little more than disturbing.  Oh well, there’s always next week’s school board election that will hopefully take care of that issue and some IPS employees as well.

I originally wrote this blog post the day after the 2006 primary.  I thought it was pretty interesting  and worthy of re-posting.  Back then Indiana had 19% turnout for the election.  I find it fascinating that the more things change, the more they tend to stay the same.

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What a difference a day makes, or in the case of the Indiana Primary, 10 weeks or 36 years makes. 36 years was how long Senate Pro Tempore Bob Garton will have served in Office when he steps down later this year after losing to challenger Greg Walker.   Ten weeks is how long 7th Congressional Candidate Eric Dickerson ran his primary campaign.   In a way the elections involving both men signify some interesting dynamics in the changing face of Indiana politics. My basic thought is this, when Hoosiers vote against incumbents, they vote for change. And they vote for change, something is really f*&^%$# up.

I wrote on these pages a while back that I couldn’t predict the election’s outcome, but nothing would surprise me.   I am not surprised.   Garton’s refusal to go after his opponent and, more importantly, refusal to give up the “free” health care benefit were his downfall. Walker tapped into a very simple theme of change. The 1970 vehicle he drove around in, didn’t hurt either.

Dickerson campaigned in his “RV” going from door to door.   Franklin spent a lot of time going to party functions. What’s interesting about the 7th Congressional District is that Dickerson may be the GOP’s best hope in getting Julia Carson’s seat. Unlike previous opponents, Andy Horning and Marvin Scott, Dickerson is not an ideologue and he can connect with regular people whether they live in Meridian-Kessler or 25th and Central. Being able to make that connection may make a major difference. He also has a healthy respect for his opponent, unlike his predecessors.

I can also argue that the Republican establishment is probably doing a serious post-mortem on Marion County to find out what happened with some of their establishment candidates.

I am least surprised at Perry Township Jack Sandlin’s loss to former Beech Grove firefighter Gary Koons.   Sandlin was the victim of overconfidence and underestimating how much he was disliked. The firefighters who opposed him were organized and mad, two things not wanted in opposition.

Hamilton County Prosecutor managed to hold on to her office by her pantyhose by beating challenger Paul Felix by 140 votes, by latest reports. I think this was a wake-up call for Leerkamp. To be in office for more than 10 years and almost loose by to an upstart, shows something “ain’t right” in the HC.

What this election does go to show that 1) If you’re an incumbent, be afraid if you have a credible challenger. 2) If you’re a credible challenger, feel inspired. 3) If you’re the voter, don’t think your vote doesn’t matter. 600 people changed the course of Indiana politics for next decade or so.