It’s Election Day!  Go vote!  What more needs to be said?  Exactly!

Although there are 36 hours to go before the 2010 midterm elections are over and we still have  the 2011 elections to get through, it’s never too late to start talking about 2012.   To be more specific I’m talking about Indiana Congressman Mike Pence who is being talked about as a potential candidate for Governor or President.

If you ask him directly, Pence says he’s focused on getting Republicans elected to the U.S. House of Representatives as well as the Statehouse.  However, the speculation continues to grow about what Pence will do, or start doing, after Tuesday.

If Pence decides to pursue residency at 46th and Meridian he may find the road has a few more obstacles than some might think.  First, all signs indicate Lt.  Governor Becky Skillman is going to run for Governor regardless of whoever is in the race.   And there is nothing like a strong primary challenge to weaken an opponent in a general election.     While Pence may be the more dynamic candidate, you can’t underestimate Skillman’s work ethic and the fact she’s spent the past  six years being  very visible in a lot of parts of Indiana that don’t get a lot of attention.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, while Pence could win the primary, a number of Republicans privately express concerns about whether he could have enough broad support to win in 2012.  They question his lack of a business background as well as the fact he might be too socially conservative for some more urban parts of the state, especially when the economy and unemployment are still likely to be big issues.

And then of course there’s the question about who would be a better candidate against Evan Bayh should he decide to run for Governor again.  But that’s another blog post for another day.

With less than 48 hours to go before the polls open, I bring you lots of nice little tidbits of political information for your reading pleasure or consternation.

The early voting continues in Marion County.  More than 1,200 people showed up for in-person voting on Saturday and more than 19,600 people have participated.  In 2006, there were slightly more than 13,000 people who took advantage of early voting.  Although it’s hard to get a read on the breakdown of the early voting, from what I’ve been able to gather, Democrats are slightly ahead.  The word is that they are trying to build a firewall (or levee) to deal with the Republican tsunami that’s expected on Tuesday.   Case in point, the Mark  Massa for Prosecutor campaign tells me they made nearly 9,000 phone calls Saturday afternoon and the response was overwhelmingly positive.

I’m still trying to figure out the strategy behind the Indiana Democrats’ mailer in the 9th Congressional District encouraging people to vote for Libertarian Greg Knott.  The mailer promotes Knott as a conservative, but if anyone ever took a close look at Knott’s positions on issues, i.e. the environment and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you would think he was a Democrat.   This could backfire on the Dems, thus illustrating sometimes you can be too smart for your own good.

Speaking of the 9th, I’m hearing if  Republican Todd Young loses the nail-bitter race to Baron Hill, he could also be a potential pick for Secretary of State should Charlie White not be able to serve due to his “electoral” issues.

And finally, I took a walk with a candidate Saturday morning for a couple hours in Marion County to observe retail politics up close and personal.   I was surprised at how calm people were when as he went door to door.  No one yelled or screamed, “get off my doorstep!”  It did seem as if people had made up their minds about what they were going to do Tuesday and they were just waiting to go do it.

Although it looks like Republican Secretary of State candidate Charlie White will coast to victory on Tuesday, despite allegations of voter fraud and campaign irregularities, some questions have arisen what would happen should White be charged with voter fraud and convicted.

If White is convicted while in Office he would automatically have to give up his position.  If charged, he could still serve.  And under Indiana law, Governor Mitch Daniels would pick his replacement.  The relevant statute is below.

IC 3-13-4-3

(a) This section applies to a vacancy that occurs in a state office other than governor, lieutenant governor, or a judicial office.
(b) If a state officer wants to resign from office, the state officer must resign as provided in IC 5-8-3.5.
(c) A vacancy that occurs in a state office because of the death of the state officer may be certified to the governor under IC 5-8-6.
(d) A vacancy that occurs in a state office other than by resignation or death shall be certified to the governor by the circuit court clerk of the county in which the officer resided.
(e) The governor shall fill a vacancy in a state office by appointment. The governor may not fill a vacancy as provided by law until the governor receives notice of the death under IC 5-8-6.
(f) The person who is appointed by the governor holds office for the remainder of the unexpired term and until a successor is elected and qualified.
As added by P.L.5-1986, SEC.9. Amended by P.L.3-1987, SEC.430; P.L.119-2005, SEC.1.

The same rule would apply if White is forced to step down prior to being sworn in January.    The Governor would pick someone to fill White’s full term.   I frankly think if there is a indictment handed down, White will resign.

Names that have surfaced as his likely replacements include former State Representative Luke Messer,  Valparasio Mayor Jon Costas, and former DNR Commissioner Kyle Hupfer if he’s unsuccessful in his race for the Statehouse out of Madison County.

I’ve got some work to do this morning, so I have to take a little break from the usual political discussion.  In the meantime, I’m opening up the forum for you to make your own political predictions.  Feel free to throw in the percentages.

1. U.S. Senate – Dan Coats v. Brad  Ellsworth v. Rebecca Sink-Burris
2. Indiana 2nd Congressional District  – Joe Donnelly v. Jackie Warloski
3. Indiana 8th Congressional District  – Trent Van Haaften v. Larry Buschon
4. Indiana 7th Congressional District – Andre Carson v. Marvin Scott*
5. Indiana 9th Congressional District – Baron Hill v. Todd Young
6. Marion County Prosecutor –  Mark Massa v. Terry Curry
7. Marion County Sherriff – John Layton v. Dennis Fishburn
8. Indiana State Senate (District 31) – James Merritt v. Frank Anderson
9. Indiana State Senate (District 29) – Mike Delph v. Robin Shackleford
10. Indiana Secretary of State – Vop Osili v. Charlie White v. Mike Wherry
11. Indiana Republicans v. Indiana Democrats (House of Representatives)
12. Your race of choice that you have been following, but may not have gotten a lot of media attention.

Have at it.

*We all know how this one is going to very likely turn out, but I’d love to see the spread.

U.S. Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth tells me that any Democrats who think he is giving up and conceding the race to Dan Coats are mistaken.

At a breakfast meeting  this morning with the Marion County Democratic Chairman’s Club, an organization for large contributors, sources say Ellsworth virtually admitted the race for the Senate was over.   And reportedly told the gathering of Democrats there was no way he could win against Dan Coats.

In a phone conversation this afternoon, Ellsworth told me some members of the party may have gotten the wrong impression and he won’t concede until the last votes are counted.  He says he understands Democrats are feeling nervous, but the early voting data he’s seen says the race still looks good for him.   He admitted to being a bit candid on the stump when he told the crowd that morning that if his votes he took on health care and the stimulus package don’t get him elected, then so be it.

He says he didn’t mean to leave the audience with the  impression that he was giving up.  He described his mood to me as “optimistic, but also realistic.”  He says everyone just needs to stay calm and focused on November 2.

The latest public polling on the race has shown Coats leading Ellsworth 54-32.  Rebecca Sink-Burris, the Libertarian candidate is polling at 7%.

The hard thing about writing about politics daily, is what do you write about when it’s a relatively politically slow news day?  Well, if you’re me, you write about the latest political gossip, rumor and blatant innuendo, that’s what.  So here it is.

The latest numbers are out on early voting in Marion County.   As of Wednesday more than 15,000 people have taken advantage of absentee and in person voting.   That number is up from 2006, which was slightly more than 13,000.  There’s no official word on any breakdown of Democratic, Republican  or Libertarian.   But traditionally, Democrats have done better with in-person voting while the GOP does better with absentee ballots.

The latest polling in the Marion County Prosecutor’s race shows Democrat Terry Curry with a six-point lead over Republican Mark Massa, however there’s talk the poll was mostly conducted in the 7th Congressional District, which is heavily Democratic.

Speaking of polling, the Todd Young Congressional campaign released a poll saying they have a 49-37 lead over Democrat Baron Hill.   However, a poll conducted by The Hill, only shows a 2-point difference with Hill in the lead.  While The Hill is an independent source, the locals on the ground tell me their polling in statehouse races is more reflective of Young’s numbers.

Speaking of polling, the word on the street is that local Democrats did some polling last week of their Lawrence Township candidates (constable, small claims judge, and trustee) and all three were losing 8-12 points against their Republican challengers.

And before I forget, I just wanted to let everyone know I have no hard feelings against Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy.  Treacy took a dig at me yesterday at their news conference where they unveiled the latest Mark Massa attack ad.  As he began he acknowledged me as the “representative of the Republican Party.”  I told him I was happy to see him too, however I was hoping in the back of my mind he wasn’t going to try and belly bump me because I don’t know if you’ve seen Ed lately,  he would easily win that contest.

Marion County Democrats today unveiled this attack ad on Republican Prosecutor candidate Mark Massa.    The only problem I had with it is that Massa wasn’t the lead attorney in the cop brawl from 16 years ago,  it was another attorney who is now a Democratic Judge in Marion County.   Oh, and they spell David Bisard’s last name wrong in the ad.  You can see it at about 0:15 in.

I fully expect misleading ads during a political season, but at least get the basic facts right and proofread before you show it to the media.  I can respect evil, I’m not a big fan of sloppy.

The latest polls on Indiana’s U.S. Senate race and Secretary of State’s race are revealing some bad news for Democrats.  According to the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, if the election were held today Dan Coats would return to the U.S. Senate and Charlie White (at least for now) would be Indiana’s next Secretary of State.

The survey of 1600 likely voters shows both Coats and White with double-digit leads over their political opponents.

U.S. Senate

• Dan Coats – 54%.
• Brad Ellsworth – 32%.
• Rebecca Sink-Burris – 7%.
• Undecided/Other – 7%.

Secretary of State

• Charlie White – 51%.
• Vop Osili – 31%.
• Mike Wherry – 7%.
• Undecided/Other – 10%.

An examination of the cross-tabs show some interesting trends.  71% of those survey say the nation is on the wrong track and 43% say the economy is the number issue of this election.

Both White and Coats are polling above 50% in all parts of the state, while Ellsworth and Osili are in the low 30s.  White and Coats also lead among independents.     The Downs Center poll also shows more Republicans are likely to vote this election season than Democrats, 56-31.  In 2008, that number was virtually tied, 44-42; the Republicans  had a slight lead.

What’s most damming about this poll, is not that it tends to fall in line with other polls (both published and unpublished), but if the Democrats are losing by more than 20-points with the race at the top of ticket.  And their candidate who has been accused of voter fraud is also winning by 20-points, then what does that say for races near the bottom of the ticket? Say the Indiana House of Representatives, for example?

Is the electorate so upset with the Democratic brand that they will to cast them all aside, regardless of office?  It really is looking like it.   And if these numbers hold, Tuesday won’t just be bloodbath, it will be a wholesale political slaughter.

Yikes!

After spending the evening covering another Indianapolis budget vote, I am now convinced more than ever that now is the perfect time for a grown-up conversation about local government and finance.   I say this for a couple of reasons.

First, the general public is woefully ignorant about how government finances actually work.  Second, the property tax caps that will be passed into the Indiana State Constitution next Tuesday will force the discussion.

As the Indianapolis City-County Council Monday night passed its $1.1 billion spending plan,  there were complaints about the funding for the Capitol Improvement Board and the $8 million it is giving to the Convention and Visitors Association as well as the $30 million loan for the Indiana Pacers which is being used for the operation of Conseco Fieldhouse.

It’s easy to see how the public would be upset over money that goes for sports-related reasons, while libraries have to reduce hours and bus service barely scrapes by.  However when you try to explain to the public that money for the CIB can’t be used for libraries and buses, they look at you like you are speaking Aramaic.  You could take every dime dedicated for Conseco, Lucas Oil, Victory Field and the Convention Center and it wouldn’t keep one library open or bus running, under current Indiana law.  Someone needs to explain this not only to the public, but certain members of the Council.

Now this doesn’t mean money can’t be found for these important services.  The Council used funds from reduced levies and dedicated them to the library and IndyGo.  In addition, as the city reduces it’s debt, as evidenced by its AAA credit rating, funds that were originally used to pay off debt can be redirected for libraries and buses.  It’s the equivalent of  paying off a credit card and using that money toward your household expenses.  By my last count, there’s at least $6 million that will be freed up next year due to debt reduction.  The trick will be for the city not to take on new debt.

However,  while cash management can help local governments like Indianapolis  with their finances in the new property tax cap world that is coming, the Indiana General Assembly is going to have to give the locals more flexibility to shift funds to cover expenses.   I understand the need for dedicated funds to have dedicated revenue, but if locals are going to have to live with caps, then lawmakers need to give them the tools to do their job.  And in my conversations with policy makers, both conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats both seem to agree on this point.   Of course, with those tools will have to come more accountability and transparency.

I think now is perfect time for all this to take place.   Monday night’s budget vote clearly illustrates this point.  Now is the time for all good lawmakers to come to the aid of their citizens and have the grown-up conversation about government finance.