I found this photo on my hard drive this morning. If you see this image after leaving this world, I can assure that not only is one of us in the wrong place, it’s probably not me! Hope your Christmas Day is going well.
As tradition dictates I wanted to take a moment and wish all of you Merry Christmas, see I don’t get offended. I’m taking off a few days do engage in my Holiday rituals which usually means good scotch, cigars, fine meals, and Monty Python’s “The Life of Brian”. Of course somewhere in there is hanging out with the Lovely Mrs. Shabazz as well. (Smile!) I hope you have a great holiday and I’ll be back in a few days with some end-of-year posts as well as somethings to look at for 2011. Happy Holidays!
You would think that with a day or two before Christmas the political rumor mill would slow down, but it hasn’t. I have some interesting follow-up information on a couple items I posted about earlier this week.
Disaster Averted
It looks like part of the reason Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels wants Eric Holcomb to be the next chairman of the state Republican Party is to avoid a serious in-fight in GOP circles. Prior to Daniels’ pick of Holcomb there were several candidates vying for the spot and the party support for Chairman was breaking into factions based who the potential Chairman supported for Governor (Becky Skillman, Mike Pence) or for the U.S. Senate (Dick Lugar, Richard Mourdock*) and things were really starting to get testy. The best way to think of this would have been a tag team wrestling match where the teams kept changing during the match. Had the Governor not stepped in I was told by once source at state party “it would have devolved into downtown Mogadishu”.
*Speaking of Mourdock, I hear he is calling around the state asking County Chairman if they would support him if he ran in the primary against Dick Lugar. I’m told he’s gotten a pretty positive response from some of them who feel the senior Senator hasn’t communicated with them as much as he should. However the Lugar folks have been also been aggressive in their outreach as of late.
Murder by Numbers Update
And a follow-up to yesterday’s post on Indianapolis’ homicide rate. IMPD Chief Paul Ciesielski e-mailed me with the latest numbers on the city’s murders. He told me the number of criminal homicides was 98. Although the city investigated 108 homicides, but 10 were eliminated because they were labeled as self-defense, police action shootings, accidental, etc.
As we get ready to close down the year, there has been a lot of talk about Indianapolis’ homicide rate and what exactly is that number? Well, like most things, the number you get depends on who you ask?
The number a lot of people like to cite is 117. That number comes from the website Bart Lies. While that number is correct, it’s somewhat misleading. Because the guys who run the tally count every death, other than natural causes as a homicide, i.e. car accidents, police action shootings, etc. This is not to say they aren’t correct, because those deaths are homicides.
However, when you look at the city’s murder rate (the intentional and unlawful killing of another person or persons) that number is 109; still more than last year, but significantly down from previous years.
The more disturbing statistic though when looking through those numbers are the high percentages of Blacks who are murder victims. So far this year out of the 109 murders in Indianapolis, 59 of them or 54% were Black. And out of that 59, more than half the victims were under age 35.
Blacks make up about 25% of Indianapolis’ population, but over the past years, Blacks have made up anywhere from 47% to 65% of the murder victims. And the even sadder part of that stat is there is an 80% chance their assailant was also Black.
I bring this up because this has been a tough year in Indianapolis to be a member of law enforcement. However I also believe a number of people of my complexion have tried to use IMPD’s problems as a wedge issue and stir up racial animosity in order to score political points in next year’s municipal elections. If these guys really want to make a difference they would work a little harder to really address the number one problem facing certain segments of the Black population here in Indianapolis, which by the stats I’ve seen are other Blacks.
Two big political news items Becky Skillman is getting out of the race for Governor and Public Safety Director Frank Straub was re-appointed with bi-partisan Council support. So without further adieu let’s dive into some analysis shall we…
Becky Bows Out
Lt. Governor Becky Skillman this morning told me that it was unexpected surgery in the last couple of weeks played a role in her decision to not run for Governor in 2012. She did not go into details, but she did describe her health condition as “minor” but still enough to keep her out of the race. She also told me this morning she spoke to Congressman Mike Pence and the two had a very good conversation. Skillman had been laying the groundwork for a while for a gubernatorial run. My sources tell me she had been lining up organization and support. And her announcement came as a shock to many of her supporters.
With Skillman not getting in, all eyes have now turned to Pence. While the speculation continues about whether Pence will run for President, I am more convinced that he will run for Governor. Not only has he also been laying the groundwork for a while for gubernatorial run, but in a Monday speech at a fundraiser he told the audience he was more “Flatrock than Potomac”; a reference to the Flatrock river which runs through his district. And to make an even stronger point, I argue that Pence will run for Governor because he doesn’t have a choice.
If Pence were to get out of the race, that opens the field to just about anybody and everybody and cause pure political chaos in Indiana’s political landscape. And it also opens up the field to a credible Democratic challenger. With Evan Bayh not running, everybody and his mother would give the Governor’s Office a second look.
You can hear my interview with the Lt. Governor below.
The Importance of Being Frank
By a vote of 16-13, the Indianapolis City-County Council voted to re-affirm the appointment of Public Safety Director Frank Straub. Democrats Vernon Brown, Angela Mansfield and Jackie Nytes joined 13 Republicans in voting for Straub. Meanwhile Republicans Janice McHenry and Christine Scales joined nine Democrats and Libertarian Ed Coleman in voting against Straub.
What was most interesting about this was the dynamics of some of the votes. For example, Councilor Bob Lutz was a “no” vote until he heard what he labeled as disparaging remarks by the Fraternal Order of Police regarding the Citizens Review Board and the Brandon Johnson case. Also, Councilor Jack Sandlin was originally thought to be a “no” vote however he stated that it was time to move the department forward in a new direction.
The “no” votes did not surprise me, however I was a bit puzzled by the votes of the majority of the Black Councilors. For years, Blacks have complained about the relationship between the community and the police department however they voted “no” against the man who whose policies have been to improve relationships between many of their constituents and law enforcement.
Overall, the Straub re-appointment is not so much a win for the Mayor nor a loss for the FOP, I do think it is a victory for badly needed reforms which need to happen within the police department. And since Straub isn’t going anywhere, I think it behooves both he and the FOP to work to together improve the department and both sides will have to adjust their game plan somewhat to make that happen.
That’s all for now.
Lt. Governor Becky Skillman just announced she is not running for Governor of Indiana. Here is the statement put out this morning…
INDIANAPOLIS – Lt. Governor Becky Skillman today issued the following statement on a gubernatorial run in 2012.
“With much disappointment, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for Governor in 2012. My end of year physical exam revealed minor health issues. Nothing will interfere with my devotion to my duties as Lt. Governor, and I plan to continue the same pace as always. However, it is best to continue without the additional stress of a gubernatorial campaign.
“I owe a huge debt of gratitude to my family, office staff, campaign staff, and many friends and supporters throughout the state who offered great encouragement for my potential candidacy.
“I look forward to the next two years of service with enthusiasm, particularly the up-coming legislative session, as Governor Mitch and I work every day to move our state forward.”
Skillman’s announcement pretty much clears the field for a Mike Pence gubernatorial run. Last week, U.S. Senator and former Governor Evan Byah announced he was not going to run for his old job in 2012.
Quick note. I’m told by state officials that the general population census figures for the state of Indiana are expected to be released tomorrow morning. They are not expected to show any major change in the state’s population that would lead to a decrease in the size of its Congressional delegation. I’m also told Indiana’s mail-in compliance with the census was 79%, one of the highest in the nation. I’ll have full details tomorrow.
Today is going to be a composite post, lots of interesting things but no overriding main theme, just my collective thoughts and impressions. Enjoy.
Let’s Be Frank
Indianapolis Public Safety Director Frank Straub’s re-appointment is up for a vote tonight at the City-County Council. From all the individuals I spoke to over the weekend, the vote is expected to be close and bi-partisan, regardless of how it turns out. A number of Republican Councilors have been getting pressure from some members of the Fraternal Order of Police to vote “no” on Straub’s re-appointment. There are two things I’ve found most interesting in this debate. First, no one seems to have a real problem with Straub from a policy perspective and everyone I speak to, regardless of their opinion of the Director, are all in full agreement that IMPD is in need of some serious internal reform. Second, even if Straub were not to be re-appointed, he could still technically keep his job, because city code would allow him to keep his appointment until a replacement is named. This should be interesting to watch. By the way, there was a recent meeting of Straub, his public safety team as well as the leadership of the FOP. I’m told the meeting was productive and the two sides agreed to communicate more and work together to improve the department.
Jackie’s Justification
I continue to have a hard keeping a straight face when it comes to the critics of City-County Councilor Jackie Nytes. They’ve used every excuse under the book to determine why she isn’t running for re-election, from a bogus alleged Hatch Act violation to a primary challenger. When Jackie announced two weeks ago she was not running again, I sent her an e-mail asking why and here’s her response…
Full time job at MFCDC…part time job on the Council…GYM membership I never have time to use…Board memberships I barely manage to fulfill…father 8 hours away with health issues…family that I love and don’t get to see—given all that and a Caucus that doesn’t share my approach to governing…why would I and how would I manage to fit in a campaign for a fourth term? This is not a lifetime sentence and there are other ways to serve!
Can you blame her for wanting to do something else? Me neither!
Don’t Ask, Do Tell
Although I’m not a big fan of the federal government most days, they do occasionally get it right. The U.S. Senate voted over the weekend to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” the policy that would have prohibited gays and lesbians from serving openly in the military. As an army brat, I have never understood the purpose of the ban. I always thought the military was to exemplify the American ideals of judging people based on merit and ability, not status. And as long as individuals aren’t engaging in behavior unbecoming a serviceman or woman, who cares what or who they’re doing in their off-time?
I thought the gossip, rumor and innuendo might slow down a bit this week, but it didn’t. So with that said, here we go.
With Eric Holcomb being named as the “front runner” to replace Murray Clark as the head of the Indiana Republican Party, speculation is being drawn that it’s a sign that Mitch Daniels is *not* going to run for President. Holcomb is Daniels’ right-hand political man and any presidential ambitions would involve Holcomb. My very reliable GOP sources are telling me Daniels definitely wants Holcomb to have the job. And the fact that he is leading the pack as the head of the party is a clear indicator that Daniels is scratching the Presidency off his list.
If Holcomb does get the job as party chair, one of his big tasks will be to mitigate what could be not one, but two potentially messy statewide primaries in 2012. Not only would the GOP have to contend with a potential Becky Skillman vs. Mike Pence race for Governor, but also a Dick Lugar vs. Some Challenger for the U.S. Senate race. And if you don’t think Republicans aren’t capable of screwing things up in a primary as well as Democrats just ask Governors Goldsmith or Early.
Speaking of Chairman, one name being surfaced as a possible replacement for Dan Parker on the Democratic side is Tim Jeffers. Jeffers managed Jim Schellinger’s campaign back in 2008 and was Chief of Staff to former Speaker John Gregg.
And speaking of Democrats, something weird is going on over at the Indiana Election Division. An e-mail went out Thursday afternoon that co-Legal Counsel Leslie Barnes, wife of former State Representative John Barnes, had been fired. The e-mail did not state why but there are two theories out there. The first is that Barnes heard her boss, Pamela Potesta was leaving, applied for the job, Posteta found out and fired her on the spot. The second wild theory is that Potesta will eventually be fired and Barnes will be re-hired in her position. Wild stuff.
By the way, after mentioning Vop Osili as a possible candidate for City-County Council at-large, I’m hearing he may take a pass. However, if he does decide to run my sources tell me the party will bump Annette Johnson who has been running for the position for months. The logic, get this; Ed Treacy doesn’t want too many African-Americans at the top of the ticket. Draw your own conclusions.
Enjoy your weekend.
Here are the latest little political tidbits for your amusement and entertainment.
My very reliable Republican sources are telling me the apparent front runners to replace Murray Clark as the head of the Indiana Republican Party are Ann Hathaway and 6th District Chair Ted Ogle. Also mentioned in the running are Kevin Kellams, Cam Savage and Eric Holcomb.
Speaking of State Chairman, it’s still unclear how long Democrat Dan Parker will stay at his job. The word on the street has been that Parker has been looking for a new job for a while and with Evan Bayh declining a gubernatorial run, the chances of Parker staying through the end of his term in 2013 are less likely. I’m also hearing that Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy has been working state Democrats to oust Parker as chair.
U.S. Senator Richard Lugar recently met with some Indiana Tea Party activists. I’m not sure if the point of the meeting was to convince the activists to vote for him or to not run a challenger, however an e-mail by the tea party group says they do plan to look for a possible primary challenger. Possible candidates are Richard Mourdock, State Treasurer and State Senator Mike Delph, who has been a big vocal critic of Lugar.
I’m getting more signs that talk of a Mike Pence Presidential run is just that, talk. The Congressman apparently has an informal group of advisers that meet on a regular basis and I’m told the conversations of that group are leaning toward a gubernatorial run in 2012 as opposed to a run for the White House.
Indiana’s freshmen Republican Congressmen have received their committee assignments. Todd Rokita has been assigned to the House Budget committee. 8th District Congressman Larry Buschon will serve on the Transportation Committee. 9th District Congressman Todd Young will be on Armed Services. 3rd District Congressman Marlin Stutzman has been appointed to the Agricultural Committee.
Former Indiana Secretary of State candidate Vop Osili may be running for the Indianapolis City-County Council in 2011. Osili’s name is being circulated as a contender who can bring out the African-American vote which is crucial for Democrats. If he ran, it would be at-large. I’m also hearing Democrats have another African-American male who will run at-large, but they are keeping his name close to the vest.
That’s all for now.
