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What’s Going On?

I took a little break from blogging because I’ve been following up on something that just didn’t seem to make a lot of sense to me.  And the more I chased down the information, the more bizarre stuff I discovered.   Let me know what you think.

We all know the big news of this week was the release of the new legislative maps. Republicans have the majority in both chambers and so they drew the maps that will likely pass, with some tinkering around the edges.

A lot of us in the Indianapolis area have been looking at the new shape of the 7th Congressional District and the consensus is that is a lot more competitive than it used to be and under the right circumstances a Republican could have a decent shot at capturing the seat sense it includes the southern portions of Marion County that used to be in other Congressional districts and takes out the northern 25% of the County which was trending Democratic.    This assessment was also originally shared by Adam Kirsch, the Executive Director of the Marion County Democratic Party.

What left me scratching my head though, was the recent statement Kirsch and the Democrats put out saying the new 7th Congressional District is now even more Democratic than it used to be.  If everything is fine, why put out a statement?  If you’re not concerned about the new maps, why go out of your way to say you’re not?  Even Carson’s political hanger-on Wilson Allen, admitted the District is somewhat more competitive. There’s a Shakespeare line in here somewhere about someone protesting too much.

Like I said, I’ve been spending time trying to get a read on Kirsch’s thought process, since I am not one of his favorite people, and as crazy as this sounds this is what it keeps coming back to, Chairman Ed Treacy and Andre Carson hate each other and Treacy would like to see nothing more than Carson gone and someone he picks occupy that chair. I know, it sounds crazy.  But from the Democrats I’ve spoken to (and quite a few of them speak with me) Treacy’s logic is that saying the 7th will be a cakewalk, Andre and his supporters won’t work as hard and an energized GOP with new maps will sweep him out and then two years later, he will take the seat back.

Hey, I wasn’t ready to buy this one either.  But I did confirm the lack of love between these two individuals to the point where my very reliable sources have told me Treacy has referred to Carson with some not so nice epiteths that I won’t print on a family blog and Carson is just waiting to find someone with the political acumen to replace Treacy.

I know this all sounds totally insane.  And to my detractors, I can hear you right now “Abdul is just making stuff again”.  And I would be more than willing to agree with you.  However, I wasn’t expecting the Marion County Democrats to put out a news release stating the obvious unless there wasn’t something going on.  And I really wasn’t expecting to find out just how deep-seated the hatred and distrust is reportedly between the Marion County Democratic Chairman and the Congressman from the 7th Congressional District.  Of course if that fight ever went public,  I’m putting my money on Andre to win that one.

Enjoy your weekend.

  • Chris

    Abdul, who do you see as being a valid Republican to take on Carson if this is a more competitive district now

  • Think Again

    Please please, PLEASE say one of the Council Repubs like Marilyn Pfisterer…please…

  • cynical sam

    Thanks, Abdul, for another totally useless waste of time like any of these scum will ever do anything to improve the fortunes of Hoosier citizens.

    Oh, and where is the $150 million that YOUR governor is expecting to receive in “increased revenues” derived from. I see either more arrests and asset seizures or a broader spread of fees soon.

    This gubmint is A-OK?

    Read this to find out where Indiana ranks:

    http://247wallst.com/2010/10/04/the-best-and-worst-run-states-in-america-a-survey-of-a-fifty/#ixzz1JBrKUm4K

  • Wilson46201

    to remind folk: Scott, Campo, Elrod, Dickerson, Horning, McVey, Scott, Hofmeister, Blankenbaker, Scott, Horvath, Horvath, Eynon …

  • ramon

    Oh, there you go again. Spinning and trying to stir the pot. There is no feud. You also did not read Adam Kirsch’s memo correctly. The new 7th is more Democratic than the county as a whole in 2010. The new 7th is a little less Dem than the old 7th but is still about 56% Dem. You read wrong. Did you go to a charter school?????

  • Indyernie

    “da da daaaaa…da, da da daaaaaa, da, Hey Andre…goooodbye”.

  • Wilson46201

    Poor Ernie’s been wandering around aimlessly since early 2008 singing those inane lyrics to himself over and over again — meanwhile the voters have elected André Carson to Congress three times in a row. Time for Ernie to get a clue!

  • Taxpayer 834512

    While not exactly known as a broad Democratic supporter, I’m still wondering if it was cancellation of a couple of warhorse daytime soap operas that compelled you to fill the gap on worthless prattle?

    This almost begs for another entry on smoking ordiances. Almost.

  • http://twitter.com/DKinnamon DKinnamon

    I would think that Councilman Angel Rivera would be a nice replacement for Andre Carson…well thought of Latino who thinks things through and good at getting people organized.

  • Wilson46201

    the GOP primary voters selection of Marvin Scott over Carlos May shows what the Republican base really thinks of Latinos… (Senator Mike Delph and his SB590 doesn’t help either)

  • Pogden297

    DKinnamon, I don’t know where you get that impression of Rivera. Even fellow Republican councilors make fun of him for just being a cheerleader and his lack of intellectual depth on the council. When has he ever shown any sign of “think[ing] things throught.” He obviously didn’t do that when he voted for the North of South project and the ACS 50 year parking meter deal. In both instances, he put the interests of politically connected companies ahead of the taxpayers.

  • Pogden297

    I think the answer is the 7th will be slightly more competitive, but not enough to make a difference.

  • Indyernie

    41,000 voters were added to the 7th. At the same time thousands were removed from two townships that leaned heavy D. I’m not sure of the numbers but, Andre didn’t win by 20,000 votes. If those added townships lead GOP (and they do), Andre is in trouble.

  • Pogden297

    Indyearnie, you’re talking the northern part of Pike which barely leans Democrat and the northern part of Washington which is even less Democrat. We’re not talking about switching heavy Democrats area for Republican territory. We’re talking about trading slightly Democratic territory for lightly populated Republican territory.

    Another thing, Andre Carson has run ahead of the Democratic base line numbers in his elections. There are actual Republicans crossing over to vote for him. That was never true with regard to Julia Carson who also ran behind the Democratic baseline. Andre Carson is the best pure political candidate (not saying best on policy) to occupy that district since Bill Hudnut.

  • Guest

    You’re right. In a down democratic year he didn’t win by 20,000 votes — he won by 30,000.

  • streetfighter

    Please please don’t tell me I am I still trapped in the Carson forever district? What are the borders? Set me free……

  • Pogden297

    Street…in a recent Star article a woman from Broad Ripple said she was no longer in the 7th and was complaining. I can’t believe, eyeballing the map, that the 7th district doesn’t include Broad Ripple. I would think it would come down to about 71st street.

  • Pogden297

    Street…in a recent Star article a woman from Broad Ripple said she was no longer in the 7th and was complaining. I can’t believe, eyeballing the map, that the 7th district doesn’t include Broad Ripple. I would think it would come down to about 71st street.

  • ramon

    I am not clear but my understanding is that in Wash. Twp. that the district ends at 52nd Street.

  • Indyernie

    I’ve never had a Republican admit that they voted for Andre.
    I saw the numbers, I can’t remember the exact percentage but I believe the percentage of D’s v R’s was less than two percent. Seems like it was 1.4 advantage D. I’m sure Abdul has those numbers. If so Andre can be beaten.

  • Indyernie

    I’ve never had a Republican admit that they voted for Andre.
    I saw the numbers, I can’t remember the exact percentage but I believe the percentage of D’s v R’s was less than two percent. Seems like it was 1.4 advantage D. I’m sure Abdul has those numbers. If so Andre can be beaten.

  • Pogden297

    If you look at baseline races in the precincts in the district…races like surveyor, coroner, etc., Andre Carson tends to run ahead of the Democrat candidates for those positions. Julia Carson never did that.

  • Pogden297

    It’s possible the maps aren’t that accurate. It sure doesn’t look like it goes as south as 52nd street. If it does, then there’s some hope that I’m not in the 7th District either as I’m north of 52nd street in Pike. I won’t hold my breath though.

  • Think Again

    Don’t forget his brilliant 2010 county-wide predictions. That clerk candidate in particuar, and Mr. Massa….

    He gets one election correct (Ballard) and he’s a genius. Our own Dick Morris.

  • Think Again

    Testify, Paul!

    Or, for a more accurate read of the voting populace, maybe we should ask Ernie.

  • Think Again

    Ernie, when it comes to electoral math, if I were you, I’d give up.

  • Think Again

    She did once, Paul. Her first Congressional race. A completely different time.

  • Think Again

    I believe the district stops at Kessler—that’s what it looks like on the Republican map I’ve got.

  • Pogden297

    Great TA, I live about a tenth of a mile south of Kessler.

    However, my precinct, outside of my little neighborhood, is all north of Kessler, so maybe I have a shot after all.

  • Wilson46201

    In 2002 the Indianapolis Congressional District changed and became slightly more Republican-leaning — Brose McVey jumped in with a million-dollar campaign but could get only 44% of the vote. Once again, Julia Carson won! After that shellacking, serious Republicans didn’t waste time or money contesting in the 7th.

    In 2012 Republicans who can count will come to the same conclusion: don’t waste your time or money against Congressman André Carson. The voters simply aren’t there for a Republican to win in the 7th C.D.

  • pascal

    Republicans have always been the stoopid party but I’d think Carlos May is not some Andre would ever care to debate on any issue.

  • Wurstnitemare

    Wilson, Wilson Wilson, one again, please do your homework. Brose was in front of Julia in the polls.Then he sent out that attack piece and the election turned. Andre can now be beat.When Brose tried to pull a Tom John on Julia it back fired.However,I personaly think that Andre has his eyes on the Mayors seat at some point.

  • Wilson46201

    Yes, I will concede that Republicans (despite wonderful private polling!) do have quite a record of somehow nevertheless losing elections in the Indianapolis Congressional District. The recent “screw-ups” have included Scott, Campo, Elrod, Dickerson, Horning, McVey, Scott, Hofmeister, Blankenbaker, Scott, Horvath, Horvath, Eynon…

  • Gmoore9643

    wilson, if republicans want to follow immigration law that makes them anti latinos?

  • Wilson46201

    Carlos May made his official announcement in English and Spanish in front of a West Washington Street tienda named “Plaza Guerrero” — while admirable in his Latino heritage pride, it hardly endeared him to the hardcore GOP primary voter. PuertoRican-born Angel Rivera would face similar prejudices to secure the Republican nomination in Indianapolis what with the TeaParty attitudes in the local GOP…

  • Wurstnitemare

    Wilson,Wilson Wilson. Two things Carlos May is more of a Democrat than a Republican.He got sideways with the right wing haters.Their problem was that Carlos was too down the middle in his thinking,he didnt hate enough people to satisfy the leadership at the MCRCC.

    As for Angel, that poor giy has no idea what is going on.He has never been elected to anything.He got in bed with John and Brooks; they were stupid enough to think that Angel could bring in the Hispanic vote.

    Angel is a nice fellow,however is is just a rubber stamp for Ballard and Tom John’s lobby efforts. Angel told me that the NoSo deal was a no brainer…..so there ya go

  • Wurstnitemare

    As long as Dave Brooks is running the MCRCC there will be very few Republicans win anything in Marion County.

    A rich,white guy that lives in a million $ home in Carmel running the MCRCC.That plays very well in Haughville.

  • pascal

    So long as the R argument is that they don’t stink as bad as the other guys I think the population is wiser to vote for the authentic crooks-that way, no one is under any illusions. Notice how this method works against D’s in the Legislature? When the R’s are in, they get things done.

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