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Early Voting

With one week to go before the May primary I’ve been taking a look at some of the early voting.  As of  Monday afternoon just under 2600 people voted early, either in person or mail  (1772) the rest have submitted an application to vote by mail, traveling board or fax/email but have not yet returned a ballot. .

More than 1070 voters have gone Republican ballot and more than 1400 went Democratic and 88 chose Perry and Franklin township school referendums.   Here’s a breakdown of where the vote have come from by township and party.

  • Center – 342 votes; 65 Rs, 277 Ds.
  • Decatur – 36 votes; 19 Rs, 17 Ds .
  • Franklin – 324 votes; 208 Rs, 80 Ds, 36 Other.
  • Lawrence – 255 votes; 135 Rs, 120 Ds.
  • Perry – 389 votes; 210 Rs, 127 Ds, 52 Other.
  • Pike – 247 votes; 76 Rs, 171 Ds.
  • Warren – 180 votes;  69 Rs,  111 Ds.
  • Washington – 487 votes; 168 Rs, 319 Ds.
  • Wayne – 327 votes; 126 Rs; 201 Ds.

Draw your own conclusions on what the numbers might mean.  Early voting continues through Monday, May 2.  You can vote from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Friday,  10 a.m. to 5 p.m. this coming Saturday and Sunday. And you can vote Monday, May 2, from 8 a.m. to noon.  The primary is May 3.

  • cynical sam

    ZZZZzzzzzzzz, ZZZZZZzzzzzz, ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz, who/what, yawn, oh, politics again, ZZZZzzzzzzz, ZZZZZzzzzzzz………

  • Dave

    It appears that, ~54% of those early votes are team blue, ~41% are team red, & the remaining ~5% team other; er something like that.

  • Think Again

    Correct, Dave. Or, in other words, close to party baselines in this county. And because neither party is pushing early voting very hard, it’s a pretty safe bet, that these are true numbers.

    Baseline 2010 county party vote: 54% D, 40-43$ R.

  • Think Again

    Oops…4043 PERCENT, not dollars.

    Or, maybe….

  • Pogden297

    54% is probably a point or two too low for the D baseline in 2011. It’s probably more like 56%. The Marion County D baseline in 2010 (a terrifice Republican) year was about 53% to 54%. In 2008, a good D year it was about 60%. I think 56% is a good estimate for the D baseline in 2011.

    Another factor is the Libertarian effect on the baseline numbers. I don’t care what my Libertarian friends claim, the Ls draw more from Republicans than they do Demcorats. Consider for example, the Auditor’s race last year:

    BILLIE J. BREAUX (DEM) . . . . . . 107,322 51.01
    JOE HECKO (REP) . . . . . . . . 91,990 43.73
    JOELL PALMER (LIB) . . . . . . . 11,064 5.26

    While the Libertarians will likely hurt Republican Council candidates, I think a Libertarian mayoral candidate will hurt Melina Kennedy more than Ballard. That’s because there are a sizable number of angry Repulbicans dissatisfied with Ballared. Giving them the Libertarian option means those votes won’t go to Melina Kennedy.

  • Think Again

    You might be right..but there’s still a solid plus-52% baseline that tasted power for 8 years, lost it in 2007, and won’t let it slip away again. They had been shut out for four decades before Peterson won in 1999. Those days are gone.

    The Hecko candidacy gained tremendously on the northside, where he lives…he cut D margins in southern WashTwp. And in Pike.
    A better 2010 baseline race was probably County Assessor–plus, it was an open seat, which better-gauges party strength.

    Ballard has played right into Demo hands lately. Stupid water and parking meter deals. And perhaps the most arrogant public works, public safety and parks directors in city history. I’m not sure Kennedy even needs the public safety issue, which is a hornet’s nest anyway. Neither candidate can likely get much voter traction solely on the public safety issue.

  • Indyernie

    Can this early voting info be used as a barometer to reinforce my theory that Andre Carson can be beat in 2012.

    Decatur – 36 votes; 19 Rs, 17 Ds
    Franklin – 324 votes; 208 Rs, 80 Ds, 36 Other.
    Perry – 389 votes; 210 Rs, 127 Ds, 52 Other

    I think so…

  • Think Again

    Uh, no.

    But I do so enjoy your attempts, Ernie. Have you sprained something, reaching so far?

    Ice packs work well. And rest.

  • Melyssa

    What good does it do to vote? We worked hard for Ballard, look what we got; another politician who works for the rich and not for The People.

    I might go to the polls to vote AGAINST Ballard, for he betrayed his promises to the people who worked to get him elected.

    I cannot even get meaningful volunteer work with the city. The mayor’s office bragged about getting 30 some abandoned house lots replaced with urban gardens.

    What the press release did not tell you is that as of last summer there were 101 lots and most of the available ones are in the worst parts of the city. I brought a plan (and volunteers) to the city to connect the available gardens with the poorest and most needy in the city through neighborhood block parties called “God Lot Parties”. That plan came with volunteers from the gardening communities to help connect them with the land. Our plan would not cost the taxpayers a penny.

    Our plan was shot down in city legal. Why?

    Because they claimed someone might slip and fall and sue the city.

    Yet, the city has no problem selling beer in the City Market. I guess drunks never slip and fall?

    I was so frustrated that I got Ryan Vaughn involved. Ryan called city legal on our behalf, but nothing got done.

    I am led to the conclusion that Ballard’s administration is not really concerned about a slip and fall.

    I am led to believe Ballard’s administration has no real emphasis to serve the poorest areas of our city.

    I believe the agenda is really about serving their elite friends as it takes no time at all to get millions of tax dollars to flow straight toward the country club insiders, while volunteers are blocked from helping the poor connect with city resources.

  • Melyssa

    As a footnote to Mayor Ballard:

    Here is is Spring and two-thirds of the abandoned lots will go unplowed, unused, and wasted instead of being used this year to help feed the poor in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

    I am ashamed of Ballard’s administration.

  • Twisted Sista

    “What good does it do to vote?”
    Wow, that was inspirational! You mentioned everything except the kitchen sink and the bike you were riding. Is there no comment you can make without referring to yourself?

  • Narcistic Fibrosis

    One look at the Indianapolis Monthly, and Hoosiers are ashamed of YOU.

  • MH

    My own conclusion which I have drawn is that next Tuesday will clarify who will represent the D ticket for Mayor, and that, unless the D caucus stays home in November (doubtful), that you will have a different guest the first Tuesday of each month, starting in January 2012.

    Unless you decide to make it Former Mayor Forum.

  • Melyssa

    It is SPRING and two thirds of the ABANDONED LOTS set aside for city farming are unconnected to the communities and are not being tilled to feed the poor.

    This is an abomination from a mayor that promised he was “the people’s mayor”.

  • Melyssa

    Hey Twisted…I don’t continue to do the same things over and over again when they are PROVEN to not work. Einstein said that is the definition of insanity, a definition which apparently suits you to a tee.

  • Melyssa

    Hopefully a LIbertarian candidate will come forward. I see no difference between Ballard and Kennedy except that perhaps Kennedy isn’t trying to pretend she is something she is not.

  • Pogden297

    Melyssa, isn’t it a little early? You plant something now, it’s likely to freeze. We are very likely to have another frost.

  • Pogden297

    When I looked at the northside precincts cut out of the 7th district, I found that it was Republican territory, althoughnot greatly so. The 7th district is more Democratic than the county as a whole.

    People are assuming that southern Pike and Washington is like northern Pike and Washington in terms of partisan breakdown. That’s not so.

  • Pogden297

    TA, agreed. The funny thing is the Ballard people think public safety is a good issue for them when it’s not. Neither are jobs. Yet that is the two lead issues for Ballard. The third is the city utilities sale. I don’t know what planet they’re living on if they think a majority of voters ever (right or wrong) would support the selling of a city asset.

    All Melina Kennedy has to do is tie the Mayor to his unpopular policies and its game, set and match.

  • Abdul

    Melina becoming Mayor would make for great radio. Just ask Limbaugh and Obama. I win regardless. That’s the way it should be. Thanks for listening.

  • Barnard

    Although you are likely correct in that dissatisfied R’s will vote for the L, I don’t think that’s a loss for Kennedy. It’s a gain because those R’s would normally vote for Ballard. She has the baseline advantage and any cross over from R to L is in Kennedy’s favor because even a great showing by the L candidate won’t get the job done.

  • Barnard

    Abdul… you should stump for Kennedy. It would be great for ratings and good for your checking account.

    Go out and get her elected man!!

  • Barnard

    I’m not sure what it really means but look at the D early voting turnout advantage in Washington township. 65% of early votes are D ballots.

  • Melyssa

    May 3rd is the ideal planting day with the May new moon. Lettuce and peas are early crops and can be planted in March. Regardless, land needs tilled now.

  • Think Again

    What a great idea–in tough economic times, city gardens could really help.

    Your first mistake was using the Corp Counsel’s office for anything. They’ve become a training ground for mediocre young lawyers. Come to think of it, that’s an insult to mediocre young lawyers.

    I understand they do an excellent job of rubber-stamping outside lawyers’ documents. As written. Few or no edits.

    Good gig. Not for us, but for them. These lousy lawyers are fiddling while our assets get sold off or promised to–wait for it–clients represented by the BIG LAW FIRMS, who oft hire these city lawyers-cum-geniuses.

    It’s enough to make you throw up. All over the new sidewalks that will last 5-7 years, on average, paid for by city assets leased for 50 years. Whoops. Great lawyering. The IRS’s Guide to Functional Obsolescence in available online for free. It’ll tell you the functional life of capital improvements, for depreciation purposes.

    The Great and Powerful Oz Has Spoken.

    When are we going to see that analysis of campaign finance reports, Abdul, that pays specific attention to the law firms, PR firms, CPAs and consultants, as well as the parking/water deals’ beneficiaries, and their contributions?

    As if we need a report to tell us who buttered their bread.

  • Think Again

    Game, set match, inauguration. (Don’t tell Ernie–he’s plotting Andre Carson’s overthrow on the shoulders of a second Ballard term)

  • Think Again

    Not always

  • MH

    LOL well bud, I wasn’t thinking about the quality of the radio program, rather I did what you asked us to do, which was to draw conclusions based upon the early numbers for future projected winners. Don’t hate the playah’s conclusion, hate the game!

    However, a Melina Mayoral triumph, in regards to radio programming, would probably have her on 1310AM instead of 1430AM, again based upon past/present performance of her choices. That’s too bad, because I grew weary of Amos’s constant referring to “we’uns”. At least you reach out to all demographics, which is the way it should be.

  • cynical sam

    Great post, TA. Keep up the good work. There has been a newspaper around for about a 130 years called “The Lone Star Iconoclast”. Ever consider a publishing career?

  • cynical sam

    Great post, TA. Keep up the good work. There has been a newspaper around for about a 130 years called “The Lone Star Iconoclast”. Ever consider a publishing career?

  • Melyssa

    There’s a Garden-on-The-Go produce shopping programs that is making stops through the inner city, but I think they plan to make just 12 weekly stops. That is not enough. Plus, recipients will need to buy the produce.

    Meanwhile the city is sitting on more than 60 additional abandoned lots which are dedicated to urban gardening. The soil has been tested by Purdue and deemed safe for planting. These are in areas not convenient for residents of Cottage Home, Chatham Arch, Fountain Square, Old Northside, or Lockerbie to garden.

    We did a drive-by of some of these places and you would not want to be there at night. Some are completely surrounded by boarded up homes, yet the city’s poorest people live on these blocks and they will never be able to connect to these spaces without help.

    Food prices went up 20% to 30% last year. Food will surely rise that much or more again this year. Add increased food cost to the cost of gas, and you have a toxic brew waiting.

    We explained these things to the city last summer. We wanted to be ready with all the lots connected with people to garden them this spring. Unfortunately, feeding the hungry while teaching self-reliance is not a priority for Ballard’s administration.

    I feel such a loss over all this wasted land and wasted opportunity.