Home

Join

Main Menu



blog advertising is good for you
Powered by Disqus

Links

Like IB

«
»

Divided, They Fall

So four debates for the U.S. Senate to replace the seat being vacated by Evan Bayh and what’s changed?  To be frank, not a whole lot.   Everyone said what they’ve said before and no one really strayed from the script.  However, something did dawn on me between the end of the debate at Franklin College and debate hosted by the Indiana Debate Commission.   I honestly think there is a really good chance for Dan Coats to walk away with the nomination and the Tea Party crowd will be responsible for his victory.

Take a deep breath, I’ll still be here.

Welcome back.  Here’s the logic behind my previous statement.  On a macro-level, Tea Party people by their very nature are not a top-down organization but more a grass roots collective of activists, in other words there are no leaders, more like coordinators.  And because of  that mindset, Tea Party groups are not likely to endorse any candidates, the best you can hope for is to win a straw poll.

Take that and add the fact they all have a disdain for anything with Washington attached to its name and Dan Coats, and to a lesser degree John Hostettler are not necessarily fan favorites.   So where does that leave the Tea Party voter, to split his or her vote amongst Richard Behney, Don Bates, Jr., and Marlin Stutzman.  You get enough people splitting votes…you see where this is going.

Now add in the fact that Coats has enough cash to not only be on television and radio across the state, but also he has enough cash to burn to show up on black gospel radio stations.  And you can easily see how he can attract enough non-Tea Party voters to squeak out a victory.   I’ve spoken privately a number of Tea Party activists who tell me they think/worry that Coats will win because they’re all divided over the other candidates.

Now I am not saying that the race is Coats’ to lose.   There is still an x-factor in this race that’s larger than almost any I’ve ever seen in 20 years of covering politics.  So anything can happen and it usually does.  The point I’m making here is that the since the Tea Party movement hasn’t coalesced around one “non-Washington” candidate under this scenario Coats is the likely victor.  Which would be ironic that the Tea Party people are so anti-Washington that by their own actions they indirectly elect someone with strong Washington ties.

Posted: 04|21|10 at 6:58 am by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz
Follow this entry via RSS 2.0. Comment | Trackback

  • Think Again

    I find all this fascinating. The GOP used to be so disciplined. This year, they've got huge fights in two solidly-Republican CDs, and this Senate battle.

    Coats could've been beaten, if they'd united behind one candidate. Burton, too.

  • varangianguard

    Bread & Circuses.

  • seanshepard

    I've been encouraged by the independence of the tea party activists in not all coalescing around the Behney candidacy. Not because I think ill of Mr. Behney in any way; but, that I appreciate that they aren't all robots blindly following some group leadership figure.

    What I do find fascinating is how many people who might have made a “don't split the vote with a third party” argument before now making an argument that they should not surrender their principles and ditch their support of one of the candidates to vote for one that is polling better even if means Coats might win. Makes me chuckle a bit even thought Coats is last on my list in that race. ;-)

  • Taxpayer 834512

    Why do political or social movements have to come to culmination in picking a person? That was expected of the civil rights movement or women's liberation? I don't think of the Tea Party as a political movement that's suppossed to “pick a candidate”. I interpret their mission to be in getting people more active on the issues of goverment spending, expansion, and corruption. I think they've succeeded beautifully in that respect.

    Those of you steadfastly loyal to a particular party or goverment as-the-solution my be mystified that a “opportunity” is not being taken to be a kingmaker. As long as they stay out of the fray of candidate support while remaining a fairly civil rallying point for these issues, I respect the hell out of them. I wish more Americans would cling to weighing issues instead of wearing blinders to the polls.

    This really would have turned out any differently if the Tea Party never existed? I think Coats would have still had some inside track with name recognition and money. It's not over and apparently remains statistically close. But, I urge anybody that doesn't want Ellsworth elected to vote for anybody but Coats. The Democrats will make traction on “out-of-state lobbyist”. Can you blame them?

    Even given that, ANY of the Republicans would be a step-up from Ellsworth. He was faced with a choice between Indiana and D.C., on expanding government beyond any representative, fiscal, or Constitutional basis of reality.

    He chose wrong.

  • patriotpaul

    To: Taxpayer 834512:
    WELL SAID. On a relative scale, the tea party is still in the incubation stages, much like the first cry of a newborn. You are witnessing the birth of a movement that is focused on bringing awareness to core founding principles, leaving it up to the individual to make personal political decisions. It has done perfectly fine as leaderless. Both major parties are responsible for current damage, but the Republicans who tout conservative leanings have lost our trust. Take the NY 23rd where the tea party favored a candiate over the annointed Rino, and both lost to a D. (even Newt Gingrinch claimed in retrospect that he regretted not supporting the Tea Party candidate instead of the Rino). The same may be ocurring in Arizona with republican annointed McCain. Look at Florida with Tea Party favorite, Rubio (up double digits against a Rino). If the R party machine continues to be part of the problem, then it is theirs to lose over politics; not the Tea Party. It may take several election cycles, but at least ballots are better than bullets.

  • Think Again

    I know it's a worthless exercise, but here goes anyway:

    Rep. Ellsworth is not my first choice for Senat either, but given the group of clowns on the R side, he has, on the whole, made good choices for his district. Which shoudl transfer to good choices for Indiana.

    Here's a link to the health care bill text, for whatever it's worth. i don't like all of it either, but it's a damned sight better than doing nothing and pandering to hospitals, insurers and those who profit over the mass confusion we clal health care administration:

    http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc….

  • pascal

    What the R's do is the R's to do and I've no vote in their primary. I suspect that no D will get any pro life endorsement nor are there very many Ds who will like getting to pay for abortions. The R's are poised to make inroads in that area. There are a considerable number of D's who don't care for big government.
    On the health care mess, the R's did nothing when they had the opportunity except make things worse.

  • Rico

    The 'healthcare reform' bill really has nothing to do with improving the current system, and those of us with a brain know that. Nationalized healthcare has been a dismal failure everywhere it's been tried (much like virtually every other social program liberals hold dear). Then why push it? Control. It's already starting. Can anyone say “Pass the salt”?

  • patriotpaul

    Agree. I like 'pass the salt' comment. Since salt is now considered a threat to the armed forces since it contributes to escalating obesity,resulting in less eligible entrants that puts the armed forces at jeopardy, I suppose my salt shaker is next on the terrorist watch list.

  • Taxpayer 834512

    There was an opportunity to do more than “nothing and pandering”. There was an opportunity to renew bipartisan negotiation, as is currently underway in fiscal reform. That opportunity was cast aside. The Democrats chose to go “all in”, against the wishes of a majority of the American people.

    It's as wretched a choice as the Republicans that raised a debt ceiling with “deem and pass”. The difference being we can do something about this pack of scoundrels.

    Burton's corrupt. I'm not voting for him. But, I confess there's a special detestment I find for Rep. Ellsworth, rolling over after a plane ride with the President. We'll see if the rest of Indiana feels similarly.

    .

  • Dave

    There's no reason to think the Tea Party won't confirm that Coats & Burton are… beatable.

  • Sharon

    Got our bright orange card from the NRA in our mail yesterday–laid out Coats' vote for the Brady Bill and went on to say that Stutzman and Hostetler have never voted anti-gun on any bill. Might not mean much in some counties but down in Lawrence County, it's changed alot of votes overnight.