Loading ...It’s Obama’s To Lose, For Now
That is my prediction of the Presidential race with 30 days to go. Feel free to cheer, scream, whatever. I’ll still be here to explain my analysis.
Welcome back.
Okay, here’s my rationale.
Although the national polls have Obama with a 5-7 point lead, it’s state polls that matter because of the Electoral College.
By my count based on polling data, voter registration and the general mood of the electorate, Obama has 259 Electoral votes while John McCain has 160. 119 are up in the air. Obama wins the Northeast, Upper Midwest and West Coast. McCain wins most of the South, the Plains states and most of the Rocky Mountains.
The battle ground states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada. New Hampshire and Florida notwithstanding, the path to the White House literally cuts across the center of the United States.
To win, McCain has to literally sweep Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virgina, Indiana and Missouri. He has only four ways to get to 270 while Obama has 11 combinations. McCain needs to win 110 out of the 119 Electoral votes. Obama only needs 11 out of 119.
What complicates matters for McCain is all the states in play are places where George W. won.
Of course there are still two debates to go and there could always be a national emergency that puts foreign affairs back in the spotlight. And in politics, a day is a lifetime and anything can happen.
But if the election were held today Obama would be Commander-in-Chief.
October 5th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
…and if he won we’d all get along just fine, despite the whining you’ll no doubt hear in this space over the next several hours.
I’m not so sure yet, Abdul. And here’s why: it’s an ugly little secret, but it’s true–millions of Americans won’t tell a pollster, a friend, or anyone else, but they’ll never, ever vote for a black man.
They won’t tell anyone because they’re embarrassed, and they should be. If that’s the only reason they won’t vote for someone.
That said, there are still many opportunities for we Democrats to eff it up, and we’re kinda good at that. And I like McCain, for many reasons (certainly not the Palin choice, but everyone has a bad day)…he is feisty, and I can’t believe he’ll go down without a strong fight. His own party detests him, though…he’s not a true Republican. That, in the end, may doom him.
In the end, if it’s traditional politics, Obama should win: boots on the ground and money. But this year, all bets are off. McCain has a win in him, if he pulls the right strings.
October 5th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Think Again,
I did take race into my original assessment, but I think the people who will vote against Barack because he is Black, will be offset by those who are only voting for him because he is Black.
Unless there is another 9-11, this race is being driven by simple economics and pocketbook issues, all that other crap should be out the window.
May the best man win.
October 5th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
To not vote for a person because they are black, a woman or pink with purple dots is racist and has no place in a republic.
On the same token to vote for someone just because they are black, a woman or pink with purple dots is also racist.
We are missing the point and somehow think we are voting for the person we most want to hang out with and drink a brewski with.
Granted; McCain is cranky old fart and Obama is by far the most likeable. I am not voting for the most popular guy who is nice to everyone and never says anything to rock the boat.
I am voting for the individual who is has the most experience in running the affairs of a republic.
So far, none of the above………
October 5th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
If we weren’t in such a deep, deep fiscal hole, if we weren’t going to recontinue the starcrossed spending alignment of both houses and the Presidency of the same party, if we could have investigative reporting on all that can be found on both candidates, if it would truly make it square, even, and fair to vote for someone because they aren’t the same party as the last President, if racism and the mistake of slavery could be solved only by voting for a man of color, if it were true that taking the output of producers and distributing it among non-producers were only redistribution instead of theft, if more government instead of more personal resonsibility and vigilant citizenship were the answer, if any Change that has nothing to do with Republicans assures success, if the Eastern and Middle Eastern regimes would turn kindly and less self-absorbed with geopolitical domination, if giving a man a fish would ensure success more than teaching a man to fish…….
October 6th, 2008 at 12:06 am
The only thing driving this race is media spin. If corporate media had decided to focus on Huckleberry and Edwards, the race would be a close match between the two of them. “It looks like Huck is the favorite - he’s got the passion and the vision to carry this thing through to the finish…” or “Edwards is simply the perfect candidate, blah blah blah”.
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The American voter doesn’t choose our President. The choice is between the two candidates whom private corporate finance decides to place in front of us.
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Which is why we have things like $700 billion thefts in order to enrich and bribe the criminals who knowingly participated in destroying our economy. With a Congress who was threatened with Martial Law if the bailout theft wasn’t issued illegally by Congress. The takeover of the US government by private corporations has destroyed us - and it doesn’t matter which corporate candidate wins. Whether it’s Obama or McCain we’re still going to have massive economic failure, massive expenditures in expanding overseas conflicts, increasing infringement on our Bill of Rights and on the Constitutional roles of our three government branches, and a rapidly decreasing middle class.
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And what will the bailout do for you and I? Watch your property values and answer the question for yourselves. The Bill was just signed, yet the Asian markets started out on Monday in full nose-dive:
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/index.html
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We’ve all been sold down the river for the purposeful intention of minimizing our economic strength to make global integration look like a Godsend when we need to feed and house our children. The orchestrators of this have admitted it in their autobiographies and in their public speeches and writings. They don’t hide it - their controlled media simply doesn’t report it.
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My advise is to buckle up and hold on tight. When the CNN and FOX liars advise you not to get your money out of the bank, remember who pays their salaries. I heard one anchor warning people not to do anything as dangerous or foolish as investing their money overseas - because of all the scams they might fall into. The fact of the matter is that the captain and crew of the USS Liberty was hijacked decades ago. The current crew are nothing more than pirates who depend upon you and I to keep their ship afloat, and only their clever facade keeps us expending our energy and our lives for their doomed path of destruction. Stop listening to them. For the sake of our families and our future as a sovereign nation, protect yourselves and your assets now before it’s too late.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:12 am
I think your count is close, Abdul. I don’t see race as being a decisive factor. Obama is clearly the more level-headed candidate and I will vote for him unless he really does something to drive me away from the voting booth. John McCain is an obnoxious person. I would never vote for his white skin.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:33 am
Abdul: Obama and his handlers have done a very good job of presenting him as otheer than a “Black” man. If they hadn’t , I don’t think he would have had the chance of a snow ball in hell. If McCain wants to win, he had better turn “Barracuda Sarah” loose in Michigan, Pennsylvania, ohio, and othe batttleground states and let her present an energy and economic plan that makes some snse to “joe-six-pack”. And promise to prosecute the “fat-cat” Wall Street types who really caused this mortgage credit panic.
October 6th, 2008 at 7:09 am
As a Repub I can tell you that the only weight on McCain is Palin. She needs to stay off the media unless it is FOX. She is an air head that gives rise to hope for the average GED.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:00 am
I do so love all the pontificating about why or why not a voter does what they do. I understand that some people feel compelled to extol some common good statement like, “race should play no factor” or “voting for him because he is black is also racist”. Abdul has correctly looked over the figures. This is Obama’s to lose. Race might wear some heavier burden than Abdul figured into it, and surely a great national crisis could change things. All in all it have been a long, long political season and the first comment I bet amongst the average “joe-six-pack” is “good god, when is this thing going to be over!” As a life long democrat I am not pleased that Obama is my party’s candidate not because he is black. As a sometime crossover vote for the man person I am also no pleased the Republicans left me with a 72 year old antique. Thank god it is only another 30 days.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:01 am
The dirty politics of bottomfeeding & negative campaigning increased this weekend with Palen putting Obama in bed with Ayres homegrown terrorism. It will take more than lipstick for this attack to work. The Rs are becoming desperate. Look for the fake birth certificate bombshell to distract Americans as an Oct.surprise from the Rs. Even if given a court delay of 60 days postponment, Obama would already be President and who is going to impreach him shortly after taking office. We are witnessing the demise of the Republican party. Time for a post-mortem or a hail mary?
October 6th, 2008 at 8:24 am
To answer your question, Patriot Paul, it’ll be a Hail Mary. And the quarterback will be Sarah Palin.
She’ll keep trying until their polling tells them it doesn’t work.
Which, I’d guess, will be about a week.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:56 am
From Abdul:
Think Again,I did take race into my original assessment, but I think the people who will vote against Barack because he is Black, will be offset by those who are only voting for him because he is Black.
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Yeah, and that’s exactly what Obama said so quit playing the race card TA. Like many Republicans, we’re not voting for Obama because he is a liberal, not because he is black. I cannot wait until I get a chance to vote for Allen West for President.
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Promise me TA, if and when Obama loses, give the credit to McCain versus blaming it on race. Agreed?
October 6th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Patriot Paul:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/liberals_rethink_free_speech.html
October 6th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Jerry–it’s not going to be necessary…Obama is going to win.
Whatever the outcome, if the election were held today, race is a factor, slightly. I’m hoping it goes away completely, or is nullified by other factors.
The same thing happened with Palin, for a slightly different reason. Remember all the hollering about disaffected Hillary voters flocking to Palin because she’s a woman?
They aren’t. In droves. All polls since indicate former Hillary voters, after a review of Palin’s miserable record on issues they care about, stayed home, and will vote Obama.
Gender and race are the final two frontiers in presidential politics. Both were broken this year. Finally.
Fingers crossed.
October 6th, 2008 at 10:39 am
It went from millions of Americans, to just race is a slight factor . . . talk about walking backwards. It would fair of you to go ahead and agree now, that should Obama lose, you will not blame it on race, or even slightly on race. It doesn’t matter if you are sure Obama is going to win, just agree to it so I don’t have to hear you whining about race should McCain win. I won’t be saying a word about black voters who voted for Obama solely on his skin color if Obama wins, I promise.
Agreed?
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p.s. you’re still using P Diddy’s talking points about Palin, did you even watch the video? TA hearts Diddy?
October 6th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
If you’re so certain your socialist, race-baiting buddy Obama will win, why are the crossed fingers necessary?
And Abdul has certainly never given a logical reason for supporting Obama other than the fact that he interviewed him once. Why else would a self-proclaimed conservative support the most liberal member of the Senate? If it’s not his pigment, I sure as hell would like to know what it is.
The mere fact that one would vote for or against a candidate due skin color demonstrates how little we’ve progressed in the area of race relations. Here’s a prediction: Race relations will worsen under this man and his separist regime.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
’separatist’
October 6th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Again, if we (Repubs) could just get Palin off the campaign trail, and especially from doing any television interviews. I hate to say it, but as a converted Repub, she is an insult to any intelligent woman. She is the reason McCain has lost a lot of support from that base. In short, she pisses me off, because I think she will be the ultimate reason (of course coupled with the economy) we lose the election.
October 6th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Bob, I think your view of Palin is not what the majority of Repubs feel. Look at the attendance records after she joined, they doubled at least, sometimes quadrupled. Romney was not going to excite the base, plain and simple. McCain needed to excite the base due to his many positions that he differs with the Repubs on.
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I think you’ve watched too much SNL.
October 6th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Rico,
Will you please tell me where I said i was voting for Barack? I like the guy and we’re from the same neighborhood, but I also like John McCain. Please point to some facts as opposed to your usual schtick.Thanks.
October 6th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
My only facts, Abdul, are your written words. To be exact, I’ve never declared you would vote for him. I have simply written that you support him. I can point to specific emails you sent me to defend your support for Obama? Would you like me to do a little ‘cut and paste action’? By the way, are you two on a first name basis?
October 6th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Rico,
Didn’t you know all black people are on a first name basis?
Feel free to cut and paste our exchanges. I’ll gladly defend what I wrote.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
I agree wholeheartedly with Jerry, Silent Bob. I think Sarah Palin is the whole package. She’s genuine. She’s accomplished. She’s conservative. She’s also a hottie–the true, underlying reason women like Think Again despise her. Sarah Palin has risen up through the ranks from PTA mom to Governor of the largest, most resource-rich, state in the union. She is a woman of character and substance with an 80-90% approval rating in Alaska.
She’s performed poorly in a few interviews with networks(and anchors) who’s goal it was to make her look stupid. Don’t believe the liberal press. The conservative base (no fans of McCain) love Sarah Palin and are motivated by her. Married mothers will vote overwhelmingly for McCain/Palin. She is a woman of character and substance with an 80-90% approval rating in Alaska. I only wish McCain had the conservative credentials of Sarah Palin.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Please forgive the repeated sentence.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Your friend’s only black when it serves him politically.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
So am I, what’s your point?
October 7th, 2008 at 6:27 am
Sarah Palin—-2012
October 7th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
I know you are but who am I?