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Barack Obama is in Indiana today talking National Security at Purdue University. That motivated me to look at some polling data between Barack and John McCain. Although the national polls show a virtual tie, when you look at the state polling data (which I argue is a more accurate measure) you get somewhat of a different picture.
Using compiled aggregate date from Pollster.com, I’ve put together a list of states where the candidates are ahead and where they are tied. For purposes of this blog, if there is less than a three point difference in the poll, it meets my definition of a tie.
John McCain
- Alabama - 50-35
- Alaska - 45-41
- Arizona - 44-40
- Idaho - 52-39
- Kansas - 48-38
- Kentucky - 49-36
- Louisiana - 55-35
- Mississippi - 50-44
- Nebraska - 52-36
- Oklahoma - 42-37
- South Carolina - 45-39
- Tennessee - 41-36
- Texas - 43-39
- Utah - 52-33
- West Virginia - 45-37
- Wyoming - 53-40
Barack Obama
- Arkansas - 42-39
- California - 52-39
- Connecticut - 53-35
- Delaware - 50-41
- Hawaii - 61-31
- Illinois - 50-37
- Iowa - 45-38
- Maine - 55-32
- Maryland - 55-30
- Massachusetts - 53-32
- Michigan - 47-38
- Minnesota - 51-34
- Montana - 48-43
- New Jersey - 47-37
- New Mexico - 48-38
- New York - 51-33
- Oregon - 48-35
- Pennsylvania - 48-38
- Rhode Island - 55-31
- Vermont - 63-29
- Washington - 50-37
- Wisconsin - 50-40
Virtual Tie
- Colorado - 44-42 (Barack)
- Florida - 45-43 (McCain)
- Georgia - 47-43 (McCain)
- Indiana - 42-42
- Missouri - 44-44
- North Carolina - 44-44
- North Dakota - 43-43
- Ohio - 45-42 (Barack)
- Virginia - 46-43 (Barack)
Applying that math to the electoral map, you get the following breakdown…
- Barack - 272 Electoral Votes
- McCain - 134 Electoral Votes
- Undecided - 129
Of course November is a long way away and four months is a long time and anything can happen, but this is what the race looks like today based on the available poll data.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
If you are into this stuff you should check out this site:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
It has a rolling update on Senate Seats and the Electoral College. A pretty cool site, in my opinion.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Don’t assume a Barack/McCain stand-off before things wrap up in Denver. Hillary is still working to get the nomination:
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http://alegrescorner.soapblox.net/showDiary.do;jsessionid=120752BE862DE4FAB90ECE2DDF0460BB?diaryId=259
July 16th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Shore, if she is, she’s dead politically forever. Bill, on the other hand, probably won’t give up until the roll call is finished. He’s a typical high-maintenance Type A addictive personality. Trust me, his stock in the party has sunk tremendously.
What amazes me is, the folks who know McCain best, in Arizona, favor him by only 4 pts., which is, statistically, virtually a dead heat.
Alaska is close, too. And, only Montana among Obama states is even close.
The state-by-state polling data I’ve seen is virtually identical, and most of it was prettty accurate for the primaries.
I do think some folks’ opinions are still fairly fluid. Lots can happen, but…this is shaping up to be a Democratic year in huge numbers. It’s Bush’s fault. Undoubtedly one of America’s worst presidents ever. The spillover is amazing for McCain, which is unfair.
And to those who think Mitch is a shoo-in: these Indaiana presidential numbers make our gubernatorial race much closer.
Still, A newsweek poll shows 15% of Americans believe Obama is a Muslim. (Sigh)
July 16th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
TA,
.
Your claims about Hillary being politically dead if she’s actually doing this (which she is) make good sense - that’s why her loyal media isn’t covering it. They’ve touched briefly on the new 527 organizations that she’s been forming, but no detail, no meat, and no reporting of the results. There are plenty of known reasons for that, but we won’t get into them on this forum.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I heard on AirAmerica this afternoon, that Hillary wrote some of her bigger donors, in letters that begn arriving in their mailboxes Monday.
The notes said, in effect, that she’d like the donors’ permission to transfer their maxed-out presidential primary donation, to her 2012 Senate campaign fund.
Which makes no sense at all.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Actually Hillary was asking the folks that had maxed out to the General Election (which she’s now not competing in) to allow her to transfer the money into her Senate campaign account.
David Orentlicher too took money for the fall election nut had to return that hopeful money.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
According to a new poll released today by the New York Times and CBS Obama still has a long way to go with white voters.
According to the poll, Obama garnered only a 31% approval rating by registered white voters while gathering an 83% approval rating among registered black voters.
How much is race going to be an issue in the General Election? I don’t know. Obama may be an exception to the rule this time around but can he overcome historical bias held by many white Americans?
Translation: Don’t bet the farm on Obama based on exit polls on election day.
McBush winning by default just because he’s white would be a travesty.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
“I heard on AirAmerica this afternoon…..”
-Think Again
I have two questions: 1) …so you’re the one?, and 2) Isn’t listening to AirAmerica a shortcut to thinking?
July 16th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Rico - in defense of TA, I’ve actually listened to AirAmerica a couple of times. It’s full of “progressive” propaganda and socialist agenda’s designed to justify more taxes (especially carbon taxes!) and expanded welfare, but they do occasionally cover factual and important issues - like government corruption, crimes, and cover-ups. The problem is that they spend most of the time pointing fingers at the GOP when the Dems are just as bad.
.
I think of them the same way that I think of Hannity and Rush - propaganda with a partisan twist. If a Hillary or Barack were in office, AirAmerica would be shilling for them while Hannity and Rush pointed out their real and factual crimes. Both keep enough of the population divided by lies that there’s never enough concensus to throw ALL of the criminals out of office and place them on trial for high treason and more.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
“Compassionate Conservative” proved to be a pseudonym for “Fiscal Wrecking Ball”. Whomever will spend the least amount of money. I think I know who that is, but I can be convinced otherwise with specificity. I don’t think I’ll hold my breath.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
I would love a person of color as president…just not Obama.
July 17th, 2008 at 3:25 am
Come on Melyssa people said that about Kennedy! “I don’t want a damn Catholic as president!” I guess we will say “Look how far we have come!”, or will it be “We still have a long way to go!” Time will tell!
July 17th, 2008 at 7:15 am
Rico, I listen to Rush, too. Stoped listening to Hannity–he’s just ignorant. Try opening up and expanding your menu. It keeps the cranial arteries from clogging.
Just FYI, my quick listens to all kinds of radio, tell me that Air America is right about as much as Rush is. And none of the AA jockeys, to my knowledge, have to filter their opinions through oxycontin.
Whether I’m “the one” or not, AA is badly needed on the airwaves. I listened to one of their jocks, Randi Rhodes, on a local talk show in SE Fla. nine or ten years ago. She’s fresh, usually correct, and funny. Kinda like Rush was 15 yrs. ago before the drugs melted his brain.
July 17th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I would like a president who’s a peer, for a change. That’s the sort of change I could believe in.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:29 am
A peer? What an interesting observation, JH. I’d never thought of that.
For 95% of Americans, who have an IQ above room temp, that would eliminate our incumbent.
Both current candidates are smart, and, I’d suspect, peer material. In other words, won’t embarrass me on the world stage.
Nu-kle-yar indeed.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Why is AA “….so badly needed on the radio…” when you already have CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, etc., etc., etc., to tell us how awful this country is?
Simply agreeing with their anti-American rhetoric, does not make it truthful.
July 17th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Rico, honey, it’s not anti-American. It’s progressive. Try to pay attention, huh?
It’s needed for a little thing called balance.
If we have to have Sean Hannity, that radical nutjob, and e have to listen to Rush, who’s clearly psychoic, then a balance to their views is needed.
I’m in the car a lot, and listen to talk radio a lot. I listen to right and left. Again, I have to observe: lately, AA has been correct far more than Sean and Rush, et al.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
You say ‘progressive’, and I say ‘oppressive’.
Your progressive party want to demand of radio station owners that they give ‘equal time’ to opposing viewpoints. Ever hear of the free market? Air America is an unmitigated disaster. Liberal(not progressive) fails virtually every time it’s attempted. Why not let listeners decide through a station’s rating? You progressives love government intervention.
So-called progressives want to tell us what we can listen to, what we drive, where we smoke, what kind of light bulbs we use, etc., etc., etc. If that’s progress, then our founders must be rolling over in their graves.
August 17th, 2008 at 8:53 am
[...] month I did a state-by-state analysis of the Presidential race using data gathered from Pollster.com. Since we’re expecting [...]
August 17th, 2008 at 8:56 am
[...] month I did a state-by-state analysis of the Presidential race using data gathered from Pollster.com. Since we’re expecting [...]