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A May Victory in November?

This may sound crazy, but I’ve been doing some analysis lately of the new 7th Congressional District maps, and Republican Carlos May actually has a pretty good shot at pulling an upset victory over Democratic incumbent Andre Carson.  No,  I have been overindulging in martinis.  (I actually gave up alcohol for 30 days doing the Abdul version of Ramadan.)  What I have been doing is looking at the numbers and doing some extrapolation.

As you know the new 7th District was redrawn and is now basically the southern two-thirds of Marion County.   So using that voter information,  I based my analysis on several past elections: Mitch Daniels in 2008, Greg Ballard in 2011 and Carson’s own races in 2008 and 2010.

In 2008, Mitch Daniels beat Jill Long Thompson 55-42.  He won by more than 44,000 votes and he won every township in the 7th except Center and Pike.  And he loss Pike by less than 100 votes.

In 2011, Greg Ballard beat Melina Kennedy in the new 7th,  52-48.  He won by a 7,500 -vote margin and won all but three townships (Center, Pike and Washington).

For Carson himself, in 2008, a very good year for Democrats and Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, he won the new 7th District 57-42, losing only the three southern townships of Decatur, Franklin and Perry.  In 2010,  Carson had a more narrow victory,winning 53-47,  losing all three southern townships and Warren.    It is worth noting in 2008, Carson beat Republican Gabrielle Campo 65-34 in the old 7th.  And in 2010, he beat Marvin Scott 58-37.

This shows that there is a potential path to victory for May if he can emulate the Daniels-Ballard method of campaigning, which is running as a right of center, results-oriented, protecting taxpayers candidate.  Also he would need to appeal to those Center Township voters who are not crazy about Carson.  He would also have to pull enough resources to get his message out.   A tall order to be sure, but a May victory in November is not out of the realm of reality.

 

Posted: 07|30|12 at 8:50 am by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz
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  • Ramon

    Yes, this does sound crazy.   Jill Long was a horrible candidate.  She ran over 1/2 million votes behind Obama.   We all know that 2010 was a bad, bad year for Dems.   Yet you show an easy victory in both years even in the new 7th.  Indeed,  Carlos May is not a tier one candidate.   Even with strong backing from the GOP organization,  he only beat Cat Ping by less than a thousand votes.

  • Avigdor

    What is “cat ping” and why should we send cat ping to congress?

  • Avigdor

    There is a chance to beat Andre.  He is becoming less liked by his fellow democrats.  He does not provide the service that Miss Julia did.  We have an increase in Hispanic voters.  And the district is more in his favor than it was in 2010.

    If Andre goes after Carlos, you know something is up….

  • Ramon

    You surely aren’t trying to demean someone because of her name.  Oh,  I guess you are.  When you have nothing else,  poke fun and throw mud.

  • John Howard

    Carson has been lock-step with Obama all the way.  As a resut, the election outcome will see them both win or both lose.  I expect Obama’s electability to continue it’s slide. He has polled below Romney for the past couple of months.  I can’t imagine an incumbent who only polls at 45% to win.

  • Pogden297

    John, I don’t know what polls you’re looking at, but that simply isn’t true.  Romney hasn’t ran ahead of Obama in the Real Clear Politics average of polls since the fall of last year.  There have been a few polls here or there (like Rasmussen) that show Romney ahead, but almost all of them have Obama up 2 to 6 points and leading in the key states.

  • paul wheeler

    So far, Obama is winning the electoral votes and that’s what counts.

  • paul wheeler

    So far, Obama is winning the electoral votes and that’s what counts.

  • Avigdor

    A little early to really trust polls.  At best they give a little idea of the general shape of the election.  After Labor Day it gets serious.

    Also do the polls only track those who are most likely to vote or the general population?

    Personal feelings on the election is that if Obama wins it will be tight.  But if Romney wins it will be a blow out as that is the only way Romney could win.

    And remember that most conservatives dislike Romney.  But they dislike Obama more.  Thus they are not influenced by negative ads from the Obama camp.  They will vote.

    And a large percentage of democrats are libertarians: Classic Liberals, civil libertarians and Jeffersonian-Democrats.  Add to that the libertarian-socialists (anarchists).  They could well vote for Gary Johnson as they have come to dislike Obama’s fascism.

  • Avigdor

    No, just having a little fun…..

  • Avigdor

    Obama has not broken 50%.  There is at least 10% undecided and most of those will not make up their minds until late October.

    Obama is losing black voters over gay marriage.  And white voters are showing a 20% perference for Romney.  Plus many Classic Liberals, civil libertarians and Jeffersonian-Democrats may decide to vote for Gary Johnson over voting democrat.

    Even if Obama wins, it is only going to be by less than 1%.

  • http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-poll-shows-obama-with-significant-lead-in-swing-states-of-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/2012/08/01/gJQAuvbxOX_blog.html
    Obama is above 50 in Florida and Penn, and at 50 in Ohio. Romney is in the 40s in all of the states. 

    Still gonna be close, but Romney being down by that much in Florida is pretty bad.

  • Avigdor

    Rasmussen polling seems to be the most accurate, dealing in only likely voters.  Plus they do not over poll democrats as so many other polls do.

    Not sure which polls you are using but be careful.  Plus it is still too early.  After Labor Day will be a far more clear picture.

  • Ramon

    Rasmussen is routinely dismissed by most professionals.