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Predictions, Anyone?

I am out of town today and tomorrow, so I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to turn the floor over to you and allow you to make a prediction or two for next week’s primary.  Here are your picks.

  • U.S. Senate Republican  Primary
  • 5th CD Republican Primary
  • 6th CD Republican Primary
  • 8th CD Republican Primary
  • House District 37, GOP Primary
  • House District 92, GOP Primary

You can also do vote percentages as well turnout.  I’ll be back on Friday, Brian Howey and DePauw University will be unveiling their second poll in the U.S. Senate race, and the only independent poll as well.

 

Posted: 05|2|12 at 2:10 pm by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz
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  • cynical sam

    I’ll list them 1-6 for brevitys sake.

    1.  scurilous scoundrel
    2.  corrupt swine
    3.  epitome of malfeasance
    4.  epitome of mediocrity
    5.  Wellpoint tool
    6.  Lilly tool

    BTW, I see Illinois made it in the global top ten

    left hand margin, about half way down the page

    http://www.cds-info.com/

  • http://twitter.com/Wilson46201 Wilson E. Allen

    there’s a conspicuous omission on your list of races:: the 7th CD GOP/TeaParty Primary. Lots of candidates there!

  • http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

    1. At this time, I think Mourdock is ahead, if slightly. Lugar is doubling down on some pretty nasty stuff. That means he is behind or leading within the margin of error.

    2. This is a complete tossup, but the question is a tossup between whom. I think Brooks is still struggling to find a base that’ll GOTV for her. I think McGoff is having some organizational issues. Seybold has some name recognition and some pretty big name endorsements in Indiana politics, but his fundraising has until now paled compared to McIntosh and Brooks. And McIntosh has the money and has a base, but considering that he’s going negative now means that SOMEONE is close enough for him to be worried. I also don’t think Jack Lugar is going to win, but I do think some voters might be thinking there is a familial relationship with the Senator and will vote based on that.

    McIntosh by a hair, with McGoff or Seybold close behind. This could change. I think there is a lot of undecideds in this race.

    The rest I don’t know enough about.

  • Think Again

    Ryan Vaughn for Mayor 2015.  

    (too soon?)

  • Turk182

    TA, can you say being groomed?

  • Instant Gratification

    TA, who do you think are the leading candidates from your side of the isle?

  • Think Again

    Oh Lord.  I hear so many names.  I know this:

    The mayor won’t get a free pass on stupid deals, ever again.  The voters were hungry for that info last year, and the campaign didn’t deliver it.

    Or he wouldn’t be mayor.

    If I were pressed for names, I’d say: Brian Mahern, Angie Mansfield, Joanne Sanders, Vop, Kathy Davis, Joe Hogsett, maybe even Maggie Lewis.   Larry Grau.

    Note: I didn’t say I preferred or disliked any of those names.  I say that so Rico’s head doesn’t spin around like Linda Blair’s.

    Much can happen in three years.  

  • Pascal

    Heck, much can happen in a a single day-for instance, your claim of no voter fraud in Indiana, ever.  Then, we read of two large fraud cases being charged against dumbocraps…and maybe more to come as the rats rat each other out?

  • Instant Gratification.

    I see a battle between Osili and Mahern brewing…Mahern is such an unlikable human being.

  • Pogden297

    Vaughn isn’t about to take a chance to run for Mayor when the county is strongly Democratic.  The D’s are almost assuredly going to win it back in 2015…they should have in 2011 but Kennedy’s effort mysteriously avoided certain hot-button issues that could have tipped the balance. 

    Remember all county wide offices, except for Mayor, are held by Democrats.

  • Pogden297

    “The mayor won’t get a free pass on stupid deals, ever again. The voters were hungry for that info last year, and the campaign didn’t deliver it”

    Larry Grau?  Ugh.  That guy is the reason that Pike is tearing down school buildings only a few decades old and building new buildings all at taxpayer expense.

  • Think Again

    uh, no he’s not.  He’s one of seven votes on that board.

  • Think Again

    Who?  Mahern?

    Could be.  That’s the rumor.  He’d be a better mayor aslepe than the incumbent is awake.

    But again—much can happen, and will.

  • Pogden297

    I think Mourdock’s win will be in the 6-8 point range…it might actually push 10 points.  I don’t give Lugar much of a shot to come back.  His campaign was terrible.

    As far as the 5th, I’ve never seen such a tossup…it could be one of four people.  I was saying McIntosh up until a few days ago.  I might now go with McGoff.  But I wouldn’t count out Brooks or Seybold.

  • Think Again

    I didn’t say ever.  I distinctly said it rarely happens–if ever. It was not and is not now a huge problem…to the extent Field Marshall Rokita, et al, made it out to be.  Unless, of course, the state’s chief elections officer cannot determine where he lives when he files his candidacy papers, and he wants to hold onto a lucrative (who knew?) Fishers Town Board seat.

    And every single fraud case should be prosecuted completely.

    Have you had your coffee this morning?

     

  • Pogden297

    “The mayor won’t get a free pass on stupid deals, ever again. The voters were hungry for that info last year, and the campaign didn’t deliver it”

    Sorry…I meant to say “Amen” to this.  You’re exactly right TA.  I don’t know why Ballard was given a pass on the parking meter deal, the Broad Ripple Parking gage deal, the Pacer giveaway, etc. He was extremely vulnerable and Kennedy gave all those issues a pass.

  • Avigdor

    The big political question is what is cat ping and why should I send cat ping to congress……

  • Avigdor

    BTW, anyone noticed that just about every democrat primary is contested this year?  I think that only congressional race not contested is in the Gary area.

  • indyernie

    Vop and Maggie are the only two D’s on that list with a chance of winning.

  • indyernie

    TA must have the only ten speed bike in existance with a reverse gear. I’ve never seen anyone back pedal that fast before.

  • Pascal

    Old people vote in R primaries.  They are so used to voting for Lugar that they will again and it won’t be close because a lot of old D’s will also cross-people whose opinions are not being solicited by duh pollers.  McIntosh coasts easily back into office and into House Leadership.  The other races are of little consequence after these two heavy weights.

  • Think Again

    My bike has 15 speeds, no reverse, is 22 years old, consistent, and requires TLC.

    You really need to pay better attention.  

  • http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

    I really don’t buy that, at least as far as Indiana primaries go. The mood of the general electorate is that primaries are generally party business, so you aren’t going to get toss up voters (not many) coming out. And people who self-identify as D or R are very hesitant to reach for another party’s ballot.

    There are a handful of competitive D primaries across the state as well, so many Ds will want to vote in their party’s primary even though POTUS, Senate, and Gov are already decided.

  • Think Again

    On that, you could be correct.

    Actually, I think every damned one of them could beat Ballard.  COULD.  It’s still a D city, and the only way Ballard won was: too many Ds crossed over, combined with a limp Kennedy campaign.Meanwhile, I’m glad my party can safeguard city assets.  Lest the manhole covers be auctioned off.

  • `Think Again

    If you think this Republican Senate race isn’t going to gin-up R totals, you’ve been sleeping.

    It’ll be a real rural-v-urban contest.  Close.

  • http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

    Oh I’m sure the Rs will be active. I just don’t buy this whole crossover vote from Ds. Maybe a few more independents will come out than usual. But I really don’t think a reverse-Operation chaos (which really didn’t work back in 2008 either) is going to happen.

  • Rico

    Not a person on here believes you put down the Funyuns and get your sorry ass off the couch long enough to ride anything.

  • Rico

    You are correct! It is still a ‘D’ city.  One can tell by all the crack and pea shake houses in the hood.  Ahhh…Julia’s legacy!

  • Rico

    All the new condos and high-end apartments going in downtown will not bode well for the Dem Party in Indy.

  • Rico

    uh….because it’s so close to cat peeing?

  • Rico

    Independents will vote overwhelmingly for Mourdock. The senior vote that has been so loyal to Lugar forever will not be nearly as strong this time.  They’ve seen  a side of our ‘statesman Senator’ this campaign that they didn’t know existed. Many will stay home for the primary.

  • Instant Gratification.

    and your candidate adolf mourdock is where  they will turn? They are smarter than that. We all can’t be as smart as the  racist Tea Party whack jobs

  • indyernie

    Coulda, Woulda and Shoulda DIDDEN’T.You also said the same BS about Kennedy….Kennedy was going to beat Ballard, blah blah blah. If Ballard was to run again (he says he isn’t), re-election would be a cake walk for him. I for one hope he changes his mind.

  • Clay Pigeons

    Clay will weigh down the necks of those whose party he joins.

  • Rico

    Wow, a Nazi reference!  Gee, you’re original.  Let me guess. He’s a Nazi because he’s pro-life?  Or because he’s pro- gun rights?  Why don’t you go make out with Ramon?

  • Think Again

    What’s a funyon?

  • Think Again

    I hope to God you’re wrong.  But it’s all abojt the candidate.  Ms. Kennedy wasn’t the right one.  She shoujld’ve been, but wasn’t. The issues were certainly there.

    No election is a cake-walk for a Marion County Republican.  

    Any such claim demonstrates political ignorance.

  • Think Again

    You mean the ones near Lilly–the corporate giveaway for the mayor’s friends?

  • Think Again

    Saddest likely event after Tuesday: Cat Ping signs irrelevant.  Love to see ‘em.  I think it’s a leftover 70s video game.

  • Rico

    That happened before Ballard, Yoda!

  • Think Again

    Once again, you’re wrong.  North on South, or whatever the hell that mixed-use project is called, was given away to Ballard campaign contributors in late 2010.

    The Broad Ripple boondoggle is dead in the water—for now–and another Ballard contributor has to wait for his payoffs.

    How exactly do you keep up with the news?  Just curious.

    Still lookin for funyons, whatever the hell they are.

  • Paul

    No.  No contests for statewide democratic offices, nor in the 5th CD.  I am not aware of any credible challenge to Andre Carson, either.  As far as I can see, all the primary action is on the GOP side.