**If the Carson team puts everything on the line for turnout, he wins by 14-16 points. If not, he wins by 7-10.

If the former is true, a complete Dem sweep of all county offices. Spilling down to Ed Delaney’s race and the other local Marion County legislative races.

The Carson team is capable of doing it. I haven’t seen any evidence yet that they’re gearing up for a massive GOTV effort.

After the election.

Your extreme hate for Carson notwithstanding, Pascal, the request was not for a prediction about his future beyond next Tuesday.

As for redistricting, look at the maps. Study the precinct-by-precinct results. How do you move solidly-Dem precincts further north, to dilute Carson’s numbers, and make Burton’s district safer?

It doesn’t compute.

You and I share something, believe it or not. Each of us solidly dislikes an incumbent MC. For me, it’s Burton. For you, it’s Carson.

Burton was dumber, and a bigger ego-maciac, let alone a skirt-chaser par excellence, from day one, than Andre is a bad Congressman. It’s not even close. All over Capitol Hill he’s bene a solid joke for over a decade.

And no amount of gerrymandered precincts makes either of them a future loser based solely on district lines. Unless you draw lines that invite successful court challenges.

Burton will walk away soon because his party elders have told him he will be solidly oppose din the enxt primary, by one candidate, not five. The voters will never throw him out.

It’s a numbers game, Pascal. Bigger than me or you.

The republican candidate for Secretary of State, the chief election officer for the State of Indiana, is being investigated for vote fraud and just sent out a campaign mailing that lacks disclosure as to who paid for the mailer, a criminal misdemeanor.

If Indiana elects him to be the person charged with overseeing our elections, we will be the laughing stock of the country.

So, with the belief that Hoosiers will vote with their heads, I believe Vop Osili will win the race to be Secretary of State.

Pascal hates no one. One does not require hate to observe a POS. As to your Burton theory it would seem to me that he managed to find all of his opponents all by himself and that his party elders (shall we name them?) are senile.
Seniority in Congress is no joke. Burton will be in some sorts of cat bird seats very soon and NOPE won’t be walking away from that sort of power. Andre will continue to be a joke.

Sorry for the hijack, Abdul, but Melyssa: do you know–if the FBI report is done, who’s in charge of releasing it? The feds? The locals?

Sorry for the hijack, Abdul, but Melyssa: do you know–if the FBI report is done, who’s in charge of releasing it? The feds? The locals?

Once again Pascal you mis-read. I said Burton has been and is a joke. Andre is no joke. And if you don’t hate Andre, you sure could’ve fooled almost every reader of this blog.
Burton walks away in two years. Or is beaten. The Boehner crowd realizes that with Michelle Bachman, they’ve got enough zanies to control. They don’t need another nutcase–who might shoot pumpkins in his backyard to public demonstrate something–distracting them from their agenda: get Obama in 2012 at ALL costs.
If seniority is so important to the Boehner crowd–see exactly where Danny Boy is next month. What powerful spot(s) will he get?
Mike Pence is smart. He’s walking away from leadership to let his agenda be defined by HIM alone. Very smart. And the best campaign commercials this year.

US Senate: Coats by 10 pts. I would like to see dissatisfaction with Coats as a Republican candidate result in a respectable 7% return for Sink-Burris, but I think that 5% is more realistic for the Libertarians. At least, in the last debate, Ellsworth started taking credit for his votes in the House and owning them. I can respect that. Honestly, the more that I heard Ellsworth refer to himself as “just a small town Sheriff” instead of take responsibility for his 4 years in the House, the more I disliked him.

US House, 7th District: Carson by 10 pts. People who vote for Scott will be voting for a Republican more than voting for the person. Scott has been lackluster in his campaigning from the get-go. Even his Facebook “campaign” has been to copy-paste a few different statuses repeatedly, occasionally adding a YouTube video to spice it up a bit. I still think that, if Carlos May had won the primary, this whole race would be a different story and Carson would be in serious jeopardy.

US House, 4th District: Rokita by 20 pts. He should also enjoy the victory while he can. His anti-gerrymandering stance is going to come back to haunt him in 2 years, when his district is changed so he has to go against Carson or Pence. If I was him, I’d move to Danville or even Noblesville in January. He would be a more-than-acceptable “heir-apparent” to Burton for the Republican party.

Sec. of State: This race is just sad. Charlie White will win, although he should have bowed out a long time ago. The symbolism behind a Secretary of State candidate not being aware of election law is as ridiculous as a US Congressperson saying that they voted for a bill without reading it first. An honorable person would have seen that problem and stepped back out of respect for the office and the people.

General outcome: A big year for the Republicans, making serious ground with the “undecided” group of voters. Democrats will hold their bases without a problem, though. It might look good, but it’s not as good for Republicans as they will want to believe. If things do not improve under Republicans, the pendulum will swing again soon enough.

I do want to note, however, that this is the first year that I have seriously considered Libertarians as an alternative. The more that I heard from candidates who were R or D, the more they sounded the same to me. If the Libertarian Party in Indiana can start finding ways to capitalize on voter discontent and grow their own base, they can make an even more significant impact in 2012.

US Senate: Coats by 10 pts. I would like to see dissatisfaction with Coats as a Republican candidate result in a respectable 7% return for Sink-Burris, but I think that 5% is more realistic for the Libertarians. At least, in the last debate, Ellsworth started taking credit for his votes in the House and owning them. I can respect that. Honestly, the more that I heard Ellsworth refer to himself as “just a small town Sheriff” instead of take responsibility for his 4 years in the House, the more I disliked him.

US House, 7th District: Carson by 10 pts. People who vote for Scott will be voting for a Republican more than voting for the person. Scott has been lackluster in his campaigning from the get-go. Even his Facebook “campaign” has been to copy-paste a few different statuses repeatedly, occasionally adding a YouTube video to spice it up a bit. I still think that, if Carlos May had won the primary, this whole race would be a different story and Carson would be in serious jeopardy.

US House, 4th District: Rokita by 20 pts. He should also enjoy the victory while he can. His anti-gerrymandering stance is going to come back to haunt him in 2 years, when his district is changed so he has to go against Carson or Pence. If I was him, I’d move to Danville or even Noblesville in January. He would be a more-than-acceptable “heir-apparent” to Burton for the Republican party.

Sec. of State: This race is just sad. Charlie White will win, although he should have bowed out a long time ago. The symbolism behind a Secretary of State candidate not being aware of election law is as ridiculous as a US Congressperson saying that they voted for a bill without reading it first. An honorable person would have seen that problem and stepped back out of respect for the office and the people.

General outcome: A big year for the Republicans, making serious ground with the “undecided” group of voters. Democrats will hold their bases without a problem, though. It might look good, but it’s not as good for Republicans as they will want to believe. If things do not improve under Republicans, the pendulum will swing again soon enough.

I do want to note, however, that this is the first year that I have seriously considered Libertarians as an alternative. The more that I heard from candidates who were R or D, the more they sounded the same to me. If the Libertarian Party in Indiana can start finding ways to capitalize on voter discontent and grow their own base, they can make an even more significant impact in 2012.

U.S. Senate – Dan Coats v. Brad Ellsworth v. Rebecca Sink-Burris Coats +12

Indiana 2nd Congressional District – Joe Donnelly v. Jackie Warloski

Donnelly +4

Indiana 8th Congressional District – Tren Van Haaften v. Larry Buschon

Who cares

Indiana 7th Congressional District – Andre Carson v. Marvin Scott*

Carson+17

Indiana 9th Congressional District – Baron Hill v. Todd Young

Young +5

Marion County Prosecutor – Mark Massa v. Terry Curry

Curry+ 3

Marion County Sherriff – John Layton v. Dennis Fishburn

Layton+ 9

Indiana State Senate (District 31) – James Merritt v. Frank Anderson

Even up

Indiana State Senate (District 29) – Mike Delph v. Robin Shackleford

Delph +8

Indiana Secretary of State – Vop Osili v. Charlie White v. Mike Wherry

Osili+2

Indiana Republicans v. Indiana Democrats (House of Representatives)

R
Your race of choice that you have been following, but may not have gotten a lot of media attention.

Andy Harris and who ever the guy is that he is running against

Harris +12

TA Vs Pascal

TA +35

Done now

Paul,

My thinking is that Carson is going to get out the vote, that will be good for Layton, Curry and Anderson. If Carson does not get out the vote, it will be nasty and we will end up with Jasons dad as Sheriff.

Merritt may be the single hardest working man in Politics that I have ever seen.If he looses the state of Indiana wil be far worse off. I like Frank, but he is no Merritt. However, Anderson has not been on the “white” air much. He has been running mostly on BET and cable in that zone.The creative on his stuff is bad. Merritts is OK, very canned Republican cookie cutter stuff.

Delph is kind of creepy to me

Can someone out there give me any reason at all to vote for Coats or Ellsworth? Is there any difference at all between them? Do I lose either way? From where I’m sitting it seems like I don’t think I can win with either one of them as Senator.

Hope Abdul keeps this thread up past Wednesday.

http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/ I predict an October Surprise-like Muslims from Yemen demonstrating their contempt for liberal democrats. By the way, I think Andre is doing without much Jewish money this cycle-now and forever.

I want to see Layton lose his lying azz. I’m so sick and tired of his misleading commercials. The Marion County Sheriff does NOT have the same law enforcement duties as they had.

Yet, Layton’s commercials portray him and his deputies out keeping the community ‘safe’.

Why lie about the duties and responsibilities of the Sherriff’s Department? I think Layton’s TV spots are the most despicable of the whole miserable lot of political commercials.

http://jewishindy.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=13663 The article speaks for itself.

Rico is quite misinformed as usual: in all of Marion County machines count the paper ballots, not humans. Republicans have pollwatchers and officials in all precincts watching the process. Why don’t they report all that “funny business” that exists solely in the fevered mind of the ignorant like Rico?

Rico is such a bigot that he thinks Carson’s district is only Center Township. I believe Carson represents parts or all of 8 of 9 townships. I am not sure about Franklin Township. Not only does Carson represent those townships, he does it well.

1. U.S. Senate – Dan Coats v. Brad Ellsworth v. Rebecca Sink-Burris +14 Coats
2. Indiana 2nd Congressional District – Joe Donnelly v. Jackie Warloski +4 Donnelly
3. Indiana 8th Congressional District – Trent Van Haaften v. Larry Buschon +8 Buschon
4. Indiana 7th Congressional District – Andre Carson v. Marvin Scott* + 8 Carson
5. Indiana 9th Congressional District – Baron Hill v. Todd Young +4 Young
6. Marion County Prosecutor – Mark Massa v. Terry Curry + 5 Curry
7. Marion County Sherriff – John Layton v. Dennis Fishburn + 7 Layton
8. Indiana State Senate (District 31) – James Merritt v. Frank Anderson +8 Merritt
9. Indiana State Senate (District 29) – Mike Delph v. Robin Shackleford + 14 Delph
10. Indiana Secretary of State – Vop Osili v. Charlie White v. Mike Wherry +1 Osili
11. Indiana Republicans v. Indiana Democrats (House of Representatives) 54R-46D
12. Your race of choice that you have been following, but may not have gotten a lot of media attention.
+25 Rokita

I’d like to see the sheriff’s office ELIMINATED in this county. But it’s a state-Constitutional office, so that won’t happen. Nonetheless, the City-County Council can cut his budget.

As for lying about duties, both candidates have done that.

Layton is by far the better of the two. Not even close.

uh, Paul…Anderson isn’t on the ballot for sheriff. Do you mean his Senate race? If so, voters won’t dig that deep, even if they should. I don’t know if he’ll beat Merritt, who is my senator, and a good one. But it could be close. No sheriff’s baggage for Frank in this one.

Well, you’re partly right, Pascal. You’ve smartly separated local party loyalists from national ones.

Dan Burton won’t have squat after Tuesday, except his late wife’s doctor as his new wife. In that regard, he’s very Gingrich-ish. Boehner and his ilk, remember the last time Danny was given a platform. It was ugly and Dan acted stupidly. I think Boehner is a smart political cookie. He won’t waste this chance on goofs like Dan Burton.

I have high regard for Mike Pence. His Christian-ness is the last thing that I’d use as a yardstick, in an of itself. Any person’s faith, well-practiced, whatever it is, is admirable. So long as that person doesn’t hold his/her faith up as the superior faith.

I concede nothing regarding accountability. This election has nothing to do with that. The President hasn’t had enough time to be held “accountable,” and he’s not on the ballot.

This election is about two things: anger, and tides. I’ve been on both sides of tides. You can’t fight them. Enjoy the ride while you can, if your candidates ride with the prevailing tide. Voters are fickle. It won’t last.

If this election were about the real issues, which they never are, it’d be different. Republicans used the trickle-down thing for eight years, and tax cuts for six and a half, and it produced not one net new job. Not a single one. Their policies led to a global recession of historic proportion. That cannot be debated.

I recognize what shifting tides are all about. Some you win, some you lose. This one, my party loses. Maybe not the US Senate, but probably the House.

I can live with that, because this country is still a grand place to live. Whoever is in power.

1. US Senate: Coats 52, Ellsworth 40, Sink-Burris 8.
2. US House, Dist 7: Carson 54, Scott 42, Wilson 4.
3. US House, Dist 5: Burton 42, Crawford 32, Reid 25, Trueblood 1. (This is the most interesting race of the season for me)
4. Secretary of State: White 56, Osili 38, Wherry 6. This is the saddest race. Nobody knows who these three are, so the pendulum swing will carry that inept fraud Charlie White into office.
5. Republicans will carry Marion County offices generally, riding the national pendulum swing.
6. Massa 51, Curry 49.

You are nutso but otherwise harmless.