With the election about a month away, I figured now would be as good a time as any to blog about the political lay of the land and what the world may look like on November 3.
These assessments are made on a number of factors (conversations with politicos from across the state, campaign people, news headlines, etc. etc.) and of course subject to change at a moment’s notice.
U.S. Senate – Moderately Leaning Dan Coats. I think Brad Ellsworth has a better chance than he did a month ago. His campaign has been hinting at some things coming into place real soon, however today’s political winds still favor Coats for now. There’s also a question where Libertarian Rebecca Sink-Burris fits in all this. I hear she’s polling about 10 percent.
2nd Congressional District – Slightly leaning Joe Donnelly. Republican Jackie Warloski is a spitfire, but my sources in northeast Indiana tell me they expect Donnelly to pull this one off.
8th Congressional District – Strongly leaning Larry Buschon. Buschon is running a strong race poll wise; 15-points ahead in some. Also Democrat Trent Van Haaften has not run the best campaign you would expect.
9th Congressional District – Toss Up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reportedly giving up on Baron Hill, however he still enjoys certain structural advantages that come with incumbency. However, Todd Young has been pretty aggressive, so this is a race that could come down to the wire.
Secretary of State – Leans Charlie White. Despite the recent controversy surrounding White’s voting issues, the story still strongly remains inside the political class. If something happens with either the Secretary of State’s investigation or Hamilton County Prosecutor Democrat Vop Osili might have some new ammunition, but he’ll need to spend a lot of money to do it. I equate this story to North Korea having a nuclear bomb. What good is a warhead if there’s no delivery system?
State Auditor and Treasurer – Strong Republican. These races get lost in the shuffle and since it is a Republican year, unless some major shoes drop, they will fall in line with the national trends.
Indiana House of Representatives – Republican. A number of conversations has the House going to the GOP. Right now, my guess is the Republicans get a 54-53 seat majority.
Marion County Prosecutor – Toss up. Republican Mark Massa has hit the airwaves, while the Curry people have not. There had been some rumor about a split between the Curry camp and the local party, but so far that has been just talk.
Marion County Sheriff - Leaning John Layton. Once again, while my sources say the internal polling shows the race competitive, this is still Marion County.
As I said, these “assessments” are all based on conversations and observations about the political landscape done over the last few days. You are free to disagree. I’ll be doing another one in about two weeks.