30 Days Out

With the election about a month away, I figured now would be as good a time as any to blog about the political lay of the land and what the world may look like on November 3.

These assessments are made on a number of factors (conversations with politicos from across the state, campaign people, news headlines, etc. etc.) and of course subject to change at a moment’s notice.

U.S. Senate – Moderately Leaning Dan Coats. I think Brad Ellsworth has a better chance than he did a month ago. His campaign has been hinting at some things coming into place real soon, however today’s political winds still favor Coats for now. There’s also a question where Libertarian Rebecca Sink-Burris fits in all this. I hear she’s polling about 10 percent.

2nd Congressional District – Slightly leaning Joe Donnelly. Republican Jackie Warloski is a spitfire, but my sources in northeast Indiana tell me they expect Donnelly to pull this one off.

8th Congressional District – Strongly leaning Larry Buschon. Buschon is running a strong race poll wise; 15-points ahead in some. Also Democrat Trent Van Haaften has not run the best campaign you would expect.

9th Congressional District – Toss Up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reportedly giving up on Baron Hill, however he still enjoys certain structural advantages that come with incumbency. However, Todd Young has been pretty aggressive, so this is a race that could come down to the wire.

Secretary of State – Leans Charlie White. Despite the recent controversy surrounding White’s voting issues, the story still strongly remains inside the political class. If something happens with either the Secretary of State’s investigation or Hamilton County Prosecutor Democrat Vop Osili might have some new ammunition, but he’ll need to spend a lot of money to do it. I equate this story to North Korea having a nuclear bomb. What good is a warhead if there’s no delivery system?

State Auditor and Treasurer – Strong Republican. These races get lost in the shuffle and since it is a Republican year, unless some major shoes drop, they will fall in line with the national trends.

Indiana House of Representatives – Republican. A number of conversations has the House going to the GOP. Right now, my guess is the Republicans get a 54-53 seat majority.

Marion County Prosecutor – Toss up. Republican Mark Massa has hit the airwaves, while the Curry people have not. There had been some rumor about a split between the Curry camp and the local party, but so far that has been just talk.

Marion County Sheriff - Leaning John Layton. Once again, while my sources say the internal polling shows the race competitive, this is still Marion County.

As I said, these “assessments” are all based on conversations and observations about the political landscape done over the last few days. You are free to disagree. I’ll be doing another one in about two weeks.

Posted: 10|4|10 at 7:24 am by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz
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http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

Libertarians always poll really high, but when it comes down to it, they have a base 2-5% vote depending on the area.
On the side of blue

Brad Elllsworth has a better chance getting elected sheriff again back in Vandenburg? Co. His voting record is clearly reflective of the democratic agenda and not in keeping with the people who he supposidly represents…send him back home! If Brizzi hasn’t tarnished the republican party beyond recognition with all the controversy surrounding his office over the past 2 years, it will be a miracle, I just hope Massa can save face with the voters. As far as sheriff goes, who is the lessor of two evils here? I haven’t seen ad one for Fishburn and only a few lawn signs scattered around Marion Co. Running solely on name recognition he doesn’t seem serious about winning the office of Sheriff. Then there is Layton, which will mean business as usual. Anyone who knows the MCSD knows that Frank Anderson is ate up with Altzheimers and has days when he doesn’t know what week it is much less what’s been going on in the dept ove the past 18 mos. Anyone seen him in a live interview during that time? Ever wonder why? Layton has been running the MCSD for a while now, the only thing that will change if elected is his title. He’s been spending money like a whore at Prissilla’s and for what? Nice looking dodge Chargers that go to building or court deputies, or better yet, special deputies with no formal road experience, and let’s not forget Hank who has his nice new black charger for whatever it is he does (does anyone know???)
should be an interesting election on the national level, but locally…yawn….not much will change.
Taxpayer 834512

Nothing to disagree with. Not giving our President a Senate vote is my main concern. I’d love to have the luxury of voting Rebecca Sink-Burris.
GP38_2

True, but they’re polling much higher than usual. Normal polling is 5-6%, with results 1-4%. If the polling starts at 9-10%? Could be interesting, because the three debates are yet to come, and the Libertarians routinely do well in the debates.

But polls I’ve seen, such as Rasmussen, have Coats way higher than Abdul does.
Think Again

Sadly, I agree on the Coats race.
Think Again

At least you give our President the respect the office deserves, Taxpayer, unlike other posters here. Thanks for that.

I too think Coats is easily ahead. Can he hold on? Probably. I still can’t believe we might elect a man who has barely been in the state for 12 years, and who told a NC audience last year he’d rather live there, and who has the income-earning record he’s got. He’s slept with diplomatic fleas. But we probably will elect him.

Abdul, in the precincts, the county races aren’t even close. Fishburn is a raving joke. As I’ve noted before,. voters cannot lose in the prosecutor’s race….two excellent candidates. And each has this advantage: they aren’t Brizzi.

As for Mr. White: I don’t know if he’ll pull it off. If he does, I think there’s a strong chance he won’t serve. I think he’s likely an improper candidate…on the day he filed his candidacy, the only requirement was being a registered voter, and he, well…wasn’t.
It’s really pretty simple.

Still, in this state, it’s hard to believe we’ll elect a man of color whose last name sounds decidedly un-Anglo.

And if the folks who scream about voter fraud had one shred of consistency in their veins, they’d be asking the same stern questions of Mr. White, that the Democrats are asking. Fair is fair.

Ain’t Indiana politics fun?
IndyEastsider

I’m sure it is just a typo, but the last time I checked, the Indiana House only had 100 seats. (you indicated a 54-53 Republican majority) Just curious what your intended prediction is.
Think Again

I think he meant GOP would have 53-54 seats…that’s the way I took it.

And I’m afraid he may be right. Speaker Bosma. Yikes. It’ll be fun watching him try to corral that caucus of wingnuts.
pascal

Bump”Indiana 7

This has become one of those dynastic Democrat districts. It was represented in Congress by Julia Carson, from 1996 until her death in 2007, and since 2008 by her grandson, Andre Carson. Like Schakowsky, Carson is a near 100% supporter of the Pelosi agenda in Congress. This district, while Democrat-friendly, is less so than Illinois 9. Charles Cook rates it Democrat +14, but in the special election for the open seat in 2008, Andre Carson won by only 9,000 votes, or 11%, in a very Democratic year. This year is likely to be much less friendly to the Democrats in this district, and across Indiana. Barack Obama carried Indiana in 2008, but Dan Coats, the GOP Senate candidate, leads by close to 20% in the race for Evan Bayh’s open seat.

Some analysts assume that this Indianapolis area district must be a black-majority district (and therefore unwinnable, given strong majorities won by Democrats among African-Americans), since Carson, a black Muslim, is its representative. In fact, fewer than 30% of residents are African-American, and the same job loss issue plaguing so many other districts, is a big issue here. The Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda has not facilitated job creation, while running up huge record-breaking annual deficits.

There are also some unique issues in this contest. Schakowsky is J-Street’s queen bee, but Carson is Louis Farrakhan’s candidate of choice, and has signed letters very critical of Israel’s right to defend itself, earning him a 100% rating from the Arab American League. He has angered 2nd-amendment supporters with his anti-gun position. He has voted for all the major spending and regulatory bills — TARP, the stimulus, the health care reform bill, the financial regulatory bill.

Carson’s opponent, Dr. Marvin Scott, is also African-American, and a Professor of Sociology at Butler University, the school that came to national prominence with its run to the finals of the men’s NCAA basketball tournament this year. Scott, one of seven children of parents who grew up in the segregated South, is one of three in his family to work for a Ph.D., proof if ever needed, that the American dream is still alive and kicking for those willing to strive.

Scott is a social and fiscal conservative, a supporter of a strong national defense, and an ardent supporter of Israel. He is, to say the least, no fan of Louis Farrakhan. Scott ran for the Senate in 2004 and has name recognition in the state and in his district. He has the support of Congressman Mike Pence and Congressman Dan Burton. With all the competitive House races, Scott has had difficulty raising money in what could be a winnable race in a low turnout year for traditional Democratic voters in the district. For more on Dr. Scott’s campaign, or to contribute, visit his website…”
What I find amusing is that Dr. Scott was NOT the slated candidate of the stupid party and the stupid party does not seem to be supporting his effort AT ALL. Interesting, however, is that the slated candidate HAS been supporting Dr. Scott…actively. So, there is at least one smart member of the stupid party…..
Think Again

Ugh, Pascal…again with this drivel?
Worstnitemare

You sir are a low life. For you to proclaim that Anderson has a Altzheimers is not only wrong its plain out low. It is not true. I thought that Plowman was the lowest form of life on the face of the planet, you sir ( and I use that term loosely) are lower than whale shit. It is obvious that Frank Anderson probably didnt give you a break when you were evcited from your trailor park and you spend the night with a few Bubbas.

My only prayer is that when you leave the pub this afternoon that you are picked up and sent directly to the MCJ. At that time I pray thatyou share your Sheriff Anderson has Altzheimers story. See who you bunk with there RINO

I suppose you prefer Jason Fishburns father, who has never arrested anyone. Never been in charge of anything and has no money. It pretty much tells me that your in need of a draino enima. Guess what you will not see any Fishbun ads, he has no money.
Rico

Trailer Parks? Bubbas? A bit bigotted, aren’t we?
Rico

Anyway, let’s just admit that Frank’s about as dumb as a sack of hair! His command of the spoken word makes the late Julia Carson sound like a Rhodes Scholar by comparison.
http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

Scott accepts no responsibility for his campaign’s actions. He doesn’t accept responsibility for his campaign manager’s homophobic remarks, he doesn’t accept responsibility of deleting comments and, in some cases, flat out lying on Facebook. Hell, he even claims he doesn’t “do Facebook or Twitter”, despite having three Facebook accounts and two Twitter accounts.

I’m no fan of Carson, but let’s be clear: If you support Scott, you must do so on blind faith, because he sure as hell won’t answer any questions.
http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

Scott accepts no responsibility for his campaign’s actions. He doesn’t accept responsibility for his campaign manager’s homophobic remarks, he doesn’t accept responsibility of deleting comments and, in some cases, flat out lying on Facebook. Hell, he even claims he doesn’t “do Facebook or Twitter”, despite having three Facebook accounts and two Twitter accounts.

I’m no fan of Carson, but let’s be clear: If you support Scott, you must do so on blind faith, because he sure as hell won’t answer any questions.
Think Again

I know Frank only moderately. His command of the language is far superior to Julia’s.

He will win, too.
Think Again

Who in this media market, who’s been around for a few minutes, did NOT know that Stan Solomon is a hateful goof? Who?
If he shows up to your campaign office to work, you show him the door. Dr. Scott did not. Quite the opposite.
On the side of blue

Wortnitemare, you make me laugh. First off explain to me why Anderson has not been seen in an interview, much less in public for nearly 2 years. It’s a sad reality, but it’s a reality all the same. I work in law enforcement, and I have many a deputy share with me the condition of your beloved sheriff. It’s no secret, except apparently to you. Frank has his good days ,but they are overshadowed by the not so good.

Now, if you bothered to read my post, you’ll see that I’m no fan of Fishburn’s either (do you see where I stated who is the lessor of 2 evils?…running on name recognition only?) So save your bigotted stereotype filled whining, and oh yes, the drano too, for someone who cares to hear it, or really needs it….neither of which are in my corner. Sign me; Sitting atop the whale!
Rico

Sure it is. She’s dead.

Win what? I didn’t know he was running for anything.
Rico

Scott’s an arrogant ass! But that beats the hell out of any Carson, especially one prone to race-baiting, slanderous accusations.
WakeUpPeople

Dan Coats and Brad Ellsworth stand for big government and big business. My argument is very simple. Dan Coats is a career politician. He served both in the U.S house and the senate then went to work as a lobyist. What a wide open revolving door. Brad Ellsworth voted against Ron Pauls bill to audit the privately owned company, The Federal Reserve Bank that loans our government our money. If he was working for the people he would have voted to audit them. The Federal Reserve is 100% our main problem in economics today. Im voting for REAL change this fall. Im voting Libertarian.
Think Again

Is he really arrogant? Seriously, I can’t tell. He’s clearly smart. But for cryin’ out loud he associated with Stan Solomon. Which sorta negates my smart comment…

Arrogant might explain some of his attitude and conduct. I can handle arrogant.

I won’t vote for him, and he’ll never win, but…I can still handle arrogant.
Markallen131

I agree Hank has got to go he has tarnished the star and the MCSD to long I hope John will take care of that big problem
Sheri2names

Typically, Libertarians lose about half of our support to the chicken-out factor if voters perceive that the race is close. Doesn’t matter whether or not that’s true; it’s a matter of belief. However, voters are more furious than any time in the history of the Libertarian Party. My guess is that most of those votes in the polls will stick with their favored Libertarian candidates for one reason: It’s the most satisfying way to stick it to the entrenched parties.
pascal

Matthew, go buy some cookies-not cupcakes and look up what homophobic really means. You might also acquaint yourself with the latest trends in GAY “lovemaking” so that you will appreciate the joke Stan was telling, namely, GAY now stands for “Got AIDS yet?” There is no phobia in cracking on self induced behaviour that leads to a long and expensive death subsidized by taxpayers-a needless cost to the health care system any liberatarian would tell you.
As to the American Thinker Blog I think its analysis better than what I’ve seen in the Indianapolis area’s many puported blogs offering analysis. Cite any you think are superior. AdvanceIndiana on the parking meter scam goes into great detail but those dolts are not yet in the voter’s sights.
Carson isn’t a very good Muslim in my view. The Muslims with whom he associates with are evil. He is a race baiting liar with a less than room temperature IQ who has no accomplishments in his whole life that I am aware of other than a voting record pleasing to TA and other losers. I am tempted to vote R this fall if only to see the R’s reneg on their promises to make voting districts competitive, fair, balanced, compact, and devised so as to give voters a higher class legislator than the drones the current system retches up.
Scott is a first class classroom teacher-I have it on good authority. What ever other excellences he may have ought not ignore that excellence. What nearly every commentator notices is that Congress needs some adult supervision.
But, there is no accounting for taste, some are happy that community organizers raid their pensions, wallets,and diminish their liberties, while others think a homeland security guard might be best for their aspiration and others think voting is sorta like taking a test in government school and that if they recognize a last name then it must be the correct answer.
pascal

http://cberdata.org/commentaries/view/533 Apparently, Indiana legislators don’t care that 4th graders in Indiana can’t read.
Wilson46201

This MEETUP group tells the story of Scott’s campaign: it’s been dead for over a month now. Oh well…

http://www.meetup.com/Marvin-Scott-Campaign-7th-District-Indiana/
Jhays

The kind folkers of Indiana will be diddled up the split by ballot question one. Hope you LOVE your sofa, computer, dishes, rugs, bugs &c… because it may well cost you three percent per anus: Look at (E)

Ballot question
“Shall property taxes be limited for all classes of property by amending the Constitution of the State of Indiana to do the following: (1) Limit a taxpayer’s annual property tax bill to the following percentages of gross assessed value: (A) 1% for an owner-occupied primary residence (homestead); (B) 2% for residential property, other than an owner-occupied primary residence, including apartments; (C) 2% for agricultural land; (D) 3% for other real property; and (((((E) 3% for personal property. The above percentages exclude any property taxes imposed after being approved by the voters in a referendum.))))) (2) Specify that the General Assembly may grant a property tax exemption in the form of a deduction or credit and exempt a mobile home used as a primary residence to the same extent as real property?”

HEA 1001 also calls out the change in the IT-40 line of household value itemization. They wait until the page 2 aught naught point to tell you how screwed you are. Which, I’ll recon, is farther than ANY “representative” EVER got into it—Eh, Mr. Schneider/bLubbers?

Don’t believe me? Weed ‘em and reap! http://www.in.gov/legislative/bills/2008/HE/HE1001.1.html
Ramon

Read the paper, Rico. Frank Anderson is running for state senate and will be elected!!
Ramon

You can’t win if you don’t have a campaign. Ellsworth who is the better candidate has been invisible. Whoever is his campaign head needs to be fired!!!
http://twitter.com/IndyStudent Matthew Stone

I hope Scott is paying you to post that crap, Pascal. That way you escape with some money at the cost of dignity.

Yes, Got Aids yet, that’s hilarious. Solomon should be at Crackers.

You keep harping on Carson and Obama, but just because THEY’RE BAD doesn’t mean the R automatically deserves the vote.
Hoss

Ellsworth has been a Nancy Pelosi lap dog. We need more of those mindless retards like we need another 50% added to the marginal tax rates.
Jhays

Oh, and AAron “Lap Dog” Indiana Smith:

Some of my ancestors had this quote:
“Der Herr Burgermeister gibt bekannt, dat am Mittwoch, Bier gebraut wird und deshalb ab dienstag nicht mehr in den Bach geschissen werden darf” (litterally, “The Lord Burgermeister has decreed that on wednesday, beer will be brewed and therefore from Tuesday on, no one can sh*t in the brook”). [pardon the lack of umlauts]
Rico

What a nightmare! You Dems would elect a bucket of sand, huh?
Think Again

Both parties have buckets on their tickets. Recent Republican evidence:

Lincoln Plowman, who never was smart. He actually thought a small bribe would help him influence other council; members and the 25th floor. Hilarious. State Rep. Cindy Noe. Multiple members of the CC Council.

And the most-glaring example: the mayor.

Want me to go on?
Think Again

Clearly, you aren’t paying attention. When you wake up, and start getting your news from credible sources instead of Hannity, let us know, huh?
On the side of blue

Mark, that would be a refreshing change, but Hank has a remarkable talent for getting his nose up everyone’s backside so far that they just give him something to do to keep him out of their hair…..regardless of party affiliation. Doesn’t matter who wins, ol’ Hank will find a way to burrow a nitch in someone’s arse and remain just as controversial as ever. I heard Homecroft is still celebrating his retirement from there.
pascal

As far as I know, the R’s don’t financially support R’s who are not slated candidates. However, I do know that their slated candidate for this race is supporting actively the Scott race. As for Stan’s humor, the joke is on you-your tax dollars are wasted and you don’t even get any cookies.
I concur with your last sentiment and think that is why McCain lost. There are solid reasons why the R’s are known as the stupid party and “It’s my turn” is one of them, that is, if nominated I deserve votes automatically. Like I may have said, I’m tempted to vote R, but I’m pretty good at avoiding temptations.
pascal

Pascal. Explain to me, O Great Dufuss, just where I can find him on the air. I’d like to hear him explain about cookies and cupcakes…a topic avoided on this current forum but useful for Libertarians to examine. I don’t know that I have ever heard of him prior to the limp wristed twisting their panties.
Gordiehowe9

Please don’t complain then when Coats turns out to be yet another fiscal liberal and conduit to corporate welfare queens. That’s the lesser of two evils right there. Go ahead- keep telling Congress that they can continue to take a moderate road to socialism. Perfect.
Gordiehowe9

Why’s it ‘hard to believe we’ll elect a man of color whose last name sounds decidely un-Anglo”? Is it any easier to believe that the 7th District would elect one whose skin is decidely caucasian?
Dave

Admittedly, from the speculative, mosaic distance of I-465, Solomon doesn’t strike me as someone whom Dr. Scott would know; outside politics.

My purely speculative translation: Scott may have been sand-bagged. Whether he “should have known” or not, is debatable, but he did take action- he fired Solomon.

What would a guy like Scott (who, like others in his family, busted butt to get where he’s at), have in common with someone who thinks as Solomon does?

The evidence says you’re right, automatic R, or D for that matter, is not the answer.
Think Again

Thanks for the morning laugh, Gordie. Too many hockey pucks to the head, huh?

Dan Coats too liberal. Priceless.
Think Again

Uh, dope, they did it for over two decades. His name was Andy Jacobs.

You really don’t get out much, do you?
Think Again

Tsk-tsk, Wilson, in the NFL, you’d get a flag for taunting.

Let the dead sleep peacefully, OK?
Gordiehowe9

To the average conservative, Coats, like Bush, is too fiscally liberal.

They may well be social conservatives, and Obama may dwarf Bush on borrow and spend, but Coats and Bush are fiscal liberals.
Gordiehowe9

Thanks for the ancient history report. I thought *I* was old.
Taxpayer 834512

I think your concern is justified. I may be deserving of every name you can call me. I’m not pleased a bit in potentially voting for scumbucket lobbyist. However, I think the present administration doesn’t believe in free enterprise capitalism. Imperfect as it is, I believe that’s the only sector that can pull us out of this economic tar pit. Electing the only party that can successfully remove us from this pendulum swing that’s knocked out the wall of the clock is only job one (more to go).
Anonymous

Not only is Frank Anderson suffering from a mental disorder but he’s a liar too.
Merritt is well respected across his district and by members of both parties. Merritt has also been walking his district for close to a year….Anderson can’t find the district without a Garman or having someone drive him.
Anonymous

“Carson isn’t a very good Muslim in my view. The Muslims with whom he associates with are evil. He is a race baiting liar with a less than room temperature IQ who has no accomplishments in his whole life”

Sorry Pascal but I have to differ with you on this….Andre Carson was very effective at shaking down topless dancers when he worked with the Excise Police. This was prior to him being the Homeland Security Guard.
Gene Honeycutt took the hit for Carson and Andre walked….I wonder just what Carson got in the shakedowns from these “working girls“? Can anyone say HUMMMM!

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