Monday Morning Musings
Here are a few political items to start you day off right…
4th and Rokita?
I’m hearing from reliable sources, again, that Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita is very likely to run for the Republican nomination for the 4th Congressional District. Steve Buyer announced Friday he was not seeking another term because of his wife’s health. Rokita has about $300,000 in cash on hand and very good relations with a lot of the county clerks in the area which will be crucial to any campaign. I’m also hearing State Senator Brandt Hershman is also likely to give it a try as well.
5th District Finances
The money reports are starting to come in for the 5th Congressional District. Incumbent Dan Burton raised more than $145,000 in the last quarter and has about $460,000 in cash on hand. Challenger Mike Murphy reportedly raised about $30,000 this quarter and had about $173,000 on hand. I’m told Brose McVey raised about $31,000 and had $62,000 in cash on hand. John McGoff raised about $30,000 and has about $77,000 on hand. Luke Messer raised about $106,000 this quarter and has about $285,000 in the bank. And if you’re keeping count, the challengers raised about $197,000 to Burton’s $145,000.
In Case You Wondering
Anyone looking to challenge Evan Bayh better start raising some mad cash real quick. His latest campaign filings show he raised more than $300,000 in the last quarter and has about $13 million in cash on hand.
There are some more items I’m working on today so check back this afternoon for an update.
February 1st, 2010 at 11:57 am
Does Rokita running for Congress raise some conflict of interest issues with his push for “fair” redistricting?
February 1st, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Not necessarily, Jeadland…although,when the redistricting starts next year, he'll definitely have a vested interest if he becomes the Congressman.
On that race, I'd actually have to root for Hershman, slightly…it'd get a wingnut out of the legislature, one that constantly wants to amend the Constitution instead of doing the heavy lifting. He'd be eaten alive in DC with his views. Burton Lite. If that's even possible.
Does it look like all those horses will go to the post in the 5th? What a suicide mission. It's as if they took 1970s Democrat lessons. If anyone cares to remember, this district was originally carved out for the then-state GOP chairman, and it's stayed about the same numbers-wise. Thee chairman tried to run his campaign from a golf cart, and Burton worked his ass off. I believe that was 1982 and the last time Burton worked hard at anything meaningful. He's become a complete moron and an embarrassment.
Actually, he probably always was a moron, but he was smart enough to work hard in that first primary. He's coasted, golfed, and tricked around ever since. Kinda creepy actually. Ask female former staffers.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:25 pm
Abdul–from whom did Burton raise his latest cash?
February 1st, 2010 at 4:54 pm
No disagreement on Burton, despite issue stances I usually agree with. I'm waiting to hear the big drawback for Rokita. To best of my observation, he tried to push for non-political redistricting where it's desperately needed, and voter ID no more onerous than going to Blockbuster. Perish forbid if he were perceived as having common sense.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:12 pm
TA,
With US Congress elections, it's pretty easy to find this stuff. A Google of “Dan Burton campaign finance” pulled up his opensecrets.org page:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary….
Single issue PACs (all counted as one) had the most of all PACs, with Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate in 2nd place. Top Donors, counting PACs and individual donations combined, include Full House Resorts, Mid Manhattan PAC, and Citizens United. Some a bit lower on the list are from Barnes and Thornburg, Jenny Craig, and the NRA.
It's important to note that opensecrets.org “individual” donations from companies when an employee of a company contributes. So if I worked for Eli Lilly and donated $30, and Lilly's PAC donated $1,000 to the same candidate, opensecrets.org would count Lilly as $1,030.
Overall, opensecrets.org has 79% of Burton's campaign $$ as OUT OF STATE. I wonder how much that would increase if it was changed to out of his district.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Some more info:
In-State vs. Out-of-State
legend In State $37,050 (21%)
legend Out of State $136,692 (79%)
legend No State $0 (0%)
Top Metro Areas
INDIANAPOLIS $36,850
SAN DIEGO $20,000
WASHINGTON, DC-MD-VA-WV $18,800
NEW YORK $11,700
RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO $10,000
Top Zip Codes
46260 (Indianapolis, IN) $11,500
92210 (Indian Wells, CA) $10,000
20854 (Potomac, MD) $9,300
92067 (Rancho Santa Fe, CA) $8,800
00715 (Mercedita, PR) $6,000
92014 (Del Mar, CA) $5,150
46032 (Carmel, IN) $5,000
95401 (Santa Rosa, CA) $5,000
46033 (Carmel, IN) $4,800
94901 (San Rafael, CA) $4,800
33480 (Palm Beach, FL) $4,800
February 1st, 2010 at 5:27 pm
Ok I have a question. I just listened to President's Obama's plan to eliminate the tax cut (ie raise taxes) on anyone making over 250k per year. Now sense that includes most small businesses how will he then demand/push small businesses to start hiring when in effect you just cut payroll? I mean any time you raise taxes on the “rich” the cost of goods go up as said small businesses move to cover the loss of income. Hello 12% unemployment rate by end of year anyone? Can someone show me where I am wrong in my thinking and back it with numbers/proof please? I'm not anti Obama, just explain to me how this will work.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:29 pm
Intersting suggestion from a blogger on the US budget.
Hold all government spending at current levels (3.5 trillion) for 10 years. DC can fight over how to spend it. Pass a balanced budget amendment that requires government to balance the budget annually using GAAP principles, not DC accounting after this 10 year spending hiatus. A 3/4th majority can override the balance budget requirement to accommodate for disasters and unforeseen events, but, unless a formal declaration of war is declared, the deficit can’t exceed 1% of GDP regardless of the number of votes. As part of the Government Balance Budget Amendment, states will be given the power to collect Federal taxes on the Federal Governments behalf within their borders and that money is then turned over to the federal government. The federal government is a guest in the states and should be treated as such. If the federal government attempts to break the provisions of the Balanced Budget Amendment, state legislatures can vote to withhold the Federal taxes in escrow from the Federal government until they comply if they choose.
Abolish these ridiculous Federal Pension Plans and start contributing 4% of base pay for Federal Employees to IRA's to get out from underneath these long term Pension Plans.
Raise Social Security retirement age to 75 for anyone older than 45 years of age, but hold private funded IRA withdraws to 59.5 years. If you save over your life, you can retire early, if not, SS will provide some base level support your last couple years of life. Anyone younger than 45, better start saving because Social Security is going to be dismantled.
Hold Health and Human Services budget at current levels for 25 years then dismantle. Welfare is not a Constitutionally granted power of the Federal government and is reserved for the state if they chose to engage in it at all.
Give notice that all international mutual protection treaties will be in effect for 10 years and then you are on your own after that. Reallocate military spending for the militaries new mission, defend the United States and our shipping interests only.
Pass a 1% payroll tax on all wages earned within the country regardless of income level to take effect immediately. This money is to be used to pay off the debt will be required to “sunset” after the debt is paid off. Going to take a while on this one.
Abolish the federal gasoline tax and make All federally funded roads toll roads. If the toll or traffic doesn’t support the road, dismantle it. Usury taxes are better philosophically for a multitude of reasons.
February 1st, 2010 at 6:40 pm
The guy in Mass was raising a million dollars a day. $13,000,000 is going to be enough to save Evan's sorry ass. Neither Indiana Senator seems to accomplish much but even stupid people can catch on to which one has to take lessons on how to talk conservative. And, forget whatever Evan says-look at how he votes. How many Indiana voters think Congress should be allowed another two trillion dollars of debt? Were it explained to them, maybe a handful?
February 1st, 2010 at 6:54 pm
Randy, any individual who makes more than $250K is caught in this web of having his/her Bush-era tax cut being withdrawn when they expire (I think in July). It's about damned time. The evidence suggests it helped not one whit.
As for small businesses: if any small business owner doesn't file a separate return for the business (as a sub-S, partnership, et al), then yes, the income from the small business would flow to the individual, and thus be counted toward that $250K cap.
But anyone who doesn't file a separate return for the business, is missing one of the real tax advantages of having a small business. Duh.
And anyone who didn't pay attention during the campaign last year deserves to be smacked upside the head. Obama, love him or loathe him, told the world he was going to pay for health care, in large part, by taxing those making over this amount. And he promised to roll back the Bush tax cuts.
Now, you can despise the president all you want. But if you thought anything different would happen, you weren't paying attention.
Matt: thanks for the resource. It does have some quirks, but I played with it on my lunch hour. Very interesting. Better than the FEC home page. Thanks!
I wish SOS Rokita luck. Seriously. Sen. Herschman is a double-dipping Constitutional idiot. He wants to amend the Constitution for everything social; statutes suffice for that, Senator. Amendments are overkill. Plus, if he doesn't win Buyer's job, he loses a cushy $70,000 a year job as district director for Buyer.
So, for those of you playing the home version of this taxpayer-screwing game: Sen. Hershman pulls down about $110K a year, plus Bennies, from taxpayers, with combined Senate and US House salaries.
And I thought the conservative wing of politics loathed government, or at least wasteful spending. If Sen. Hershman had an ounce of dignity, he'd have resigned either the Senate job or the Buyer job long ago.
That's “if.”
February 1st, 2010 at 7:20 pm
TA,
Thanks for clearing that up. I was unclear how that tax increases would affect businesses. Makes a little more sense now. Now stupid question, arn't corporate taxes even higher than personal? I mean damned if you do damned if you dont. I would be very concerned that the amount of money they will bring in for the taxes is not off set my increased unemployment.
February 1st, 2010 at 7:21 pm
I like my chocolate covered peanuts double dipped…not the government double dipping on jobs. Unless its tar and feathers..then double dip the politicians till we are bored…
February 1st, 2010 at 9:16 pm
What evidence does TA bring to this discussion other than his own crabbed opinion? Art Laffer says the economy is headed for a train wreck in 2011. The world famous economist states that the decline in U.S. output from 2010 to 2011 worse than the decline in output in 2008 and 2009….which will be catastrophic. Who you gonna believe-a world class economist or a tax advisor who doesn't understand how Sub S corporations (most Indiana corporations of small businesses are still Sub S) are taxed?
Meanwhile, why all this ganging up on Dan Burton? Burton had hired David Bossie, the famed investigator for the House Government Affairs Committee. Dan's eye for talent wound up heading Citizens United where his talent was on display recently when the Supreme Court gutted the facist McCain-Feingold law thus freeing labor unions to spend on campaigns freely. What's not to like about that and who are these pipsqueeks challenging him and what have they ever accomplished? John McCain is kaput, I hope, and even Sarah Palin won't be able to save his sorry butt in his home State of Arizona.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:22 pm
Sen. Herschman has a day job and he has a legislative job just like nearly every other idiot in the General Assembly. So, what is the distinction that gets him the double dipper award while the 149 others skate by without derision? School teachers in Indiana are government employees-they extract money from government schools. Are they double dippers too? When viewed correctly they are not nor is Senator Herschman who is very well qualified for both jobs he performs. When you think clearly, as we have noted, you don't have to rethink or think again.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:31 pm
Pascal: his second, or first, job is working for taxpayers. One government check is enough in a house, if you're elected and get another one.
I'm not fond of teachers or superintendents serving, either. But in that case, their local school board, theoretically, oversee the expenditure of funds, and thus OK the expense. With his House District Office under Buyer, Herschman has a constituency of one. And the Federal Buyer job is certainly no piece of cake–high-paying, and they let him off for three months a year to do legislative stuff.
It's really pretty easy to understand, Pascal. Need some more time?
And, according to the last Census, most Indiana businesses are not corporations. By a large number.
As for the last Bush tax cut working–look around. The economy shrank in real GDP terms, five out of eight Bush years. It grew slightly two others and was iffy another year. These numbers adjust for the war expense, but…without the Pentagon expense, methinks it would've been an even-worse picture.
Thinking once or twice or Again…it all adds up in real numbers, Pascal. You can't rely only on Hannity and O'Reilly for your news.
Randy, corporate tax rates start as low as 11%, federal, and go up. The beauty of the corporate return is, you can depreciate capital expenditures, and many other advantages are available to you over, say, running all the money through your personal accounts.
It's as easy as getting a Fed. TAX ID no. for your business, and starting up shop. Not complicated at all.
February 1st, 2010 at 11:23 pm
One government check is enough…according to who? I get two goverment checks every month, plus other checks, plus a government check every time I do work for a government. I much prefer my real world authority to your crabbed opinion that has no basis at all. Randy, consult someone who knows. No corporation pays 11% taxes and has a 250,000 plus income for an owner.
Most Indiana corporations…speaking real slow for the retarded one…are Subchapter S corporations. Those are corporations who have elected to being taxed as partnerships and so their profits are taxed but once. Our affirmative action President apparently does not understand this nor do certain posters whose income has likely never exceeded $250,000.00 a year.
February 2nd, 2010 at 4:16 am
Enough moderate and liberal Democrats will refuse to vote for Bayh and his Democrat bashing ways that he is toast….unless the Repubs run some wingnut against him.
February 2nd, 2010 at 6:45 am
I received an officious-looking piece of mail from the RNC which used the term CENSUS several times. I can see someone thinking that, while this wasn't the 'official' U.S. CENSUS, that this was in some manner 'official'.
I'm a bit annoyed with the RNC for sending this out, and asking for money to boot.