Independent polling is the only one you can trust. Word on the street is that MIBOR and the Chamber have done polls lately and are completely neutral.

Bart Peterson was still in the high 60’s (go figure), while Ballard was in the high 30s. That poll also showed that Ballard was absolutely getting killed in Washington Twp.

The other word on the street is that pretty much every prominent Republican – people like Jim Morris, PE McAllister, the Gov, Mark Miles, heck- even members of his own administration – are aghast at Ballard. I don’t think any of these folks will be comfortable just letting him ride toward slating.

The question to ask is does the Mayor control the Marion County GOP apparatus? Does he have a relationship with precinct and ward chairs who will vote in slating? Does he have a relationship with donors? If the answer is yes, then he has a fighting chance in slating. If not, he’s toast.

In the general, he’s facing an uphill battle.

The Democratic candidates that seem to be the most serious so far are…in alpha order…Jose Evans, Joe Hogsett, and Melina Kennedy. There are other names out there, but they have separate issues. Joe and Melina have been making the rounds for at least the last six months. Jose is just getting moving. I have also already seen the party faithful starting to gel around candidates on both sides.

If it's a Joe vs. Melina race, I think one or the other will make it nice and simple for the other. It goes to slating…one wins and one goes home. I also think the party comes back together nicely and neatly. Jose Evans' plans are a little more up in the air. I'm not sure if he would stay in the race after slating or not. The vast majority of folks going to vote in a party primary for a municipal election are going to be the plugged in party voters.

That leaves, in my view, a very good Democratic candidate up against Ballard…who I don't think will “pull a Palin” or drop out of the race. I'm not as convinced as Abdul that he will get through the primary season unscathed. Shuld a renegade Republican with some money run on a similar platform that Ballard did in 2007, I think they can probably pull enough votes to beat Ballard in a primary or at least take a chunk out of him.

That may leave a weakened Ballard up against an electorate in Marion County that's probably +5-10 points Democratic now. If I were Ballard, I'd be working the backrooms to make sure that I'm free and clear in the Primary. He's going to need all the resources that he can get even if he makes it through the primary unscathed.

Who knows though? For politicos, it should be an interesting two years! Just thinking out loud here.

The Democratic candidates that seem to be the most serious so far are…in alpha order…Jose Evans, Joe Hogsett, and Melina Kennedy. There are other names out there, but they have separate issues. Joe and Melina have been making the rounds for at least the last six months. Jose is just getting moving. I have also already seen the party faithful starting to gel around candidates on both sides.

If it's a Joe vs. Melina race, I think one or the other will make it nice and simple for the other. It goes to slating…one wins and one goes home. I also think the party comes back together nicely and neatly. Jose Evans' plans are a little more up in the air. I'm not sure if he would stay in the race after slating or not. The vast majority of folks going to vote in a party primary for a municipal election are going to be the plugged in party voters.

That leaves, in my view, a very good Democratic candidate up against Ballard…who I don't think will “pull a Palin” or drop out of the race. I'm not as convinced as Abdul that he will get through the primary season unscathed. Shuld a renegade Republican with some money run on a similar platform that Ballard did in 2007, I think they can probably pull enough votes to beat Ballard in a primary or at least take a chunk out of him.

That may leave a weakened Ballard up against an electorate in Marion County that's probably +5-10 points Democratic now. If I were Ballard, I'd be working the backrooms to make sure that I'm free and clear in the Primary. He's going to need all the resources that he can get even if he makes it through the primary unscathed.

Who knows though? For politicos, it should be an interesting two years! Just thinking out loud here.

At this point the only Republicans I can trust are those that align themselves with the Republican Liberty Caucus. The rest outside the RLC are suspect to me.