Ballard 2.0?
There’s been quite a bit of speculation about the future of incumbent Mayor Greg Ballard. Although the Mayor still has 2 and 1/2 years left in his term, Democrats are already speculating about who will be their standard bearer. Not a day goes by when some blogger isn’t commenting about counting the days until Ballard leaves. Even Republican-leaning bloggers spend more time talking about how the Mayor won’t be re-elected.
However, while all these folks may engage in typical speculation, the data tends to show something else. Ballard has already told me that he and his team are gearing up for a second run. And my very reliable sources are telling some polling has been done regarding the Mayor and his performance. I have not seen the the poll directly, but through compiling data from multiple sources over the past month, I’ve learned it does meet the criteria for standard, effective data gathering. It also showed the following.
- His personal approval ratings are similar to former Mayor Bart Peterson prior to the property tax revolt of 2007 but if the election were held today, Ballard would likely only win by the same margin as last time.
- The mayor does very well on the issue crime, and nearly as well on taxes.
- On leadership, he gets strong approval from Republicans, moderate Democrats and Independents tend to split and liberal Democrats give him his lowest approval numbers.
- He gets strong marks from about a third of the African-American population.
- Jobs and the economy are the biggest issue.
- On the CIB, most voters think the matter should be addressed because of the importance of protecting jobs, however they are more supportive of a hotel tax than they are a ticket tax to solve the funding issue.
- Most voters see him as competent and a good man, but he doesn’t connect emotionally with them.
From what I can extrapolate from this data is following. The Mayor has wide support, but it’s not deep. In the minds of most voters, Ballard is doing okay, but one or two serious missteps and he loses a strong Democratic challenger.
If he can quietly deal with the CIB issue and focus more on publicly on the bricks and mortar issues of streets, crime, schools and jobs he should be able cement enough goodwill for a second term. The administration has already put together one balanced budget and returned money to the taxpayers, and approved several new charter schools so that puts them in the right direction. And most of the issues commented on the blogosphere really don’t resonate much outside the political class.
However, Ballard will have to work harder to make that emotional connection with voters. I fondly call it “the barstool” test. He should present himself not only as someone who can get things done, but also someone the voter wants to sit and have a beer with. Ballard’s greatest strength is also his greatest weakness; he is not a politician. However the Mayor may want to become just enough of one to beat back a strong Democratic challenger and win a second term.