Obama in ’11?
It’s nice to be back.
I’m hearing some pretty interesting rumblings behind the scenes regarding the Mayor’s race in 2011.
Although there is no nominee, I hear the Obama campaign has agreed to send staff and volunteers into Indianapolis to help the Democratic candidate win the race. However, it doesn’t come without a price tag. In exchange for help in getting the Mayor’s office back, the Administration is telling Marion County Democrats that sort-of-kind-of Sheriff Candidate Kerry Forestall will not get the spot of U.S. Marshall for the Southern District and instead it will go to someone picked by either Indiana Congressmen Brad Elsworth or Baron Hill.
This raises a couple of questions. What does this now mean for the Democratic nominee race for Sheriff and will Forestall get back in? Secondly, if the Obama folks do get involved in the Mayoral race, who would benefit the most, Kip Tew, Woody Myers, Melina Kennedy, Jose Evans, Joe Hogsett, Brian Williams? And will Indianapolis citizens take kindly to D.C., meddling in their internal affairs? And what will this mean for Republicans, particularly incumbent Greg Ballard should he decide to seek a second term?
So many questions, so much time. It is so nice to be back.
May 28th, 2009 at 7:26 am
Until there’s sufficient downfall in some of the ranks of the swing constituency that elected President Obama, I think Indy can and has taken to “meddling” just fine.
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I like pirates taken out, credit card company excesses pursued, and the long-term geopolitical necessity of weaning-off petroleum. But, unless across-the-board sacrifice appears to cushion the “grand experiment” of “investment” in our future, taking retirement income from middle class teachers, law enforcement, and other “evil” swing voters to save another select constituency (UAW) may elicit rebellion. The U.S. Senate has had similar second thoughts when confronted with the prospect of a Guantanamo prison shutdown without an explicit plan for what to do with the prisoners.
May 28th, 2009 at 7:46 am
If the administration does decide to meddle in our local elections, I do think the Republican party needs a stronger candidate than Mayor Ballard, whom we all know only defeated Mayor Peterson because of the property tax revolt. Who should that candidate be? Brizzi? Not really sure, but the Indy Republicans better step up if they plan on keeping the Mayor.
May 28th, 2009 at 8:09 am
It’s all very interesting, Abdul. But if you think Sen. Bayh won’t have THE major hand in selecting the next US Marshall, you’re fooling yourself. Obama is a former senator, and he understands the pecking order. The Senate confirms Marshalls. Congressmen are a bump on a pickle in that scenario.
He and the Obama folks may lean on Ellsworth, given his law enforcement background. The Marshall job is little-seen but extremely important.
Obama’s folks “meddling” in a mayoral race may or may not come with a quid-pro-quo on the Marshall appointment. They have a tremendous network of activists who can mobilize quickly. Keeping them active in 2011 may be a good warmup for 2012, when Obama would surely like to carry Indiana again. Their 2008 field operation was unequaled in Indiana political history.
I don’t know which candidate this would help the most. I like Hogsett, but who knows? And I thought the Myers candidacy was already dead, given the residency thing. I could be wrong.
May 28th, 2009 at 8:30 am
>I hear the Obama campaign has agreed to send staff and volunteers .
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ACORN? If so, should we alert precinct workers early to spot for voter irregularities and fraud?
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>who would benefit the most,
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Screw which politicos benefit the most. The question how do the citizens of Indy benefit having a rOBAMA-bot in the mayor’s seat?
May 28th, 2009 at 9:12 am
All politics is national?
May 28th, 2009 at 9:28 am
The question it raises for me is “why is the Obama Administration so intent on helping elect a local mayor in exchange for controlling selection of the US Marshall? What future efforts will the US Marshalls office be conducting that Obama is seeking to influence?
May 28th, 2009 at 10:31 am
As far as Ballard, isn’t it already kind of apparent that he has already lost re-election.
May 28th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Seems a little far-fetched to me. As I said on twitter, our Republican mayor is failing nicely on his own, and frankly, won’t need any help in havnig a (D) replace him, Obama’s organization or not.
May 28th, 2009 at 10:46 am
It all boils down to votes, which translates to power. Why else would one of the fall-outs of the stimulus package be 25 permanant state park employees loose their jobs (which most held for 25 years or more) so 60 high school kids have temporary summer jobs.
May 28th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Jon you’re badly mistaken about the state park thing, but go ahead and assume the worst, because you will anyway.
Shore, Obama isn’t trading promises for Marshall appointments. It won’t happen quite that way.
However, rumor has it, that the Republicans were ready to offer up yet another McAtee for Marshall in exchange for some 2008 voting help.
Haven’t we learned our lesson with McAtees in high-paying positions?
May 28th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Marshal, as in “Marshal Dillon, Marshal Dillon!”
NOT Marshall, as in “We are MARSHALL!”
And don’t bother with any of that “acceptable variant” stuff either. Just look at the badge.
May 28th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
The Obama involvement leads me to believe that a name you have not mentioned will run for Mayor – Andre Carson.
May 28th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Andre is a very interesting name, Fire. He’d have more power in one day than he’ll ever have in Congress. He’s so back-bench there, that he’ll never rise high enough to gain substantial power.
For once, Varan is right.
May 28th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Think Again,
Andre as Mayor? Not Gonna Happen. However, your analysis of him being a back bencher is a bit off. Yes, as a freshman that had considerable help from DCCC in his election, he has very little power now…NOW. He is very young, very charismatic and a natural politician. He’ll play the DC game well and will most certainly move up in the ranks as time goes by. We’re lucky to have him there.
May 28th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Please keep in mind that by 2011, the economy will be in much worse shape and Obama will no longer be able to afford the means to defend his economic vision. When that time comes, I do believe a Democratic candidate will want to associate with Obama here in Indiana.
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Like many others here, I also agree that Mayor Ballard is finished. I have lost respect for him and I even helped campaign for him. Now as I pull the knife out of my back, I will be working to campaign against him and unless Paul Ogden runs as a Republican, I will be giving my full support towards the Libertarian Party’s candidate. Who knows, by then, America will be so fed up with both political parties and the rise of the Libertarian Party will start to really gain major momentum.
………………………………………..
Also, in regards to the lawsuit by the Indiana Treasurer’s office dealing with the Indiana Teachers and the Indiana State Police pension funds, I am close to publishing a blog which will highlight what’s truly happening. Right now, I am very angry at President Obama for his stance is proving to be the demise of 200+ year “secured creditor” laws and will cause grave danger to the bond market which will push up interest rates and possibly spark an exodus from American bonds into more safer instruments.
May 28th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
It would favor Kip Tew.
May 28th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
To answer your question, the candidate that would benefit the most from Obama campaign organizers and GOTV efforts, by logic, is the candidate who would otherwise perform the worst against Ballard.
Obviously the campaign organization established in Marion Co by the Obama campaign is not going to be put into play to favor one candidate over any other in the primary. This is about winning in the Fall.
As for Andre Carson, I didn’t vote for him but by all reports he seems to be viewed as using his youth and energy to his advantage in the House, hooking up with established Reps, seeking knowledge about specific areas of government, and continuing the good constituent service of his Grandma, which was kinda her hallmark. No way he’s interested in running for Mayor, and even if he was, he would have a much harder time when you consider the areas of Marion Co outside his district contain the most Republicans & swing voters that would make it a much closer race than his Cong. District. The mayoral candidate has to appeal to swing voters (who went hard for Obama in ’08 and also for Daniels) and R’s disaffected by Ballard (of which there are apparently growing numbers). Who is that?
Hogsett has run for one too many offices and lost in the eyes of many. Melina lost a pretty close one, and she is better suited by experience for the Mayor’s office. At this point trying to link her to Bart Peterson isn’t going to sting as much as it would have. While the hardcore anti-Peterson crowd still likely hold that view, after the Ballard trainwreck a lot of the ’07 mildly disaffected swing voters would be glad to Peterson back.
Kip Tew would run the best campaign, by a mile. He might get more of the Obama volunteers because he was the first person in the state on board with Obama, collecting signatures to get him on the ballot in the ,one of the earliest leaders locally in the Obama campaign, and his local political knowledge one of the reasons Obama won the state. But he could put the same program together on his own with many of the same local people. The “Obama campaign” wouldn’t have to give it to him.
But Tew is used to being a behind the scenes guy, and would need to develop the charm that wins over the swing voters.
As for the primary- Woody, Jose, Brian are not gonna be able to hold up against Melina, Joe, or Kip if any/all of them stay in…esp. if one or two of them bow out in favor of the other– which I would expect.
May 28th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
It would benefit Kip and Melina. Both were very central to the Obama campaign. But, those who speculate that POTUS won’t get involved in a primary are dead on. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we did see some of his organization put to use in the general. And, if that happens, the Lt. Col. should be scared, very, very scared. 2007 was a horrific fluke – if the D’s had any kind of normal turnout, this trainwreck wouldn’t have happened. If POTUS is involved, we won’t have to worry about D turnout. Somehow I don’t anticipate R’s will be running to the polls to support you know who.
May 28th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
It is coming down to Melina and Joe.
May 28th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Abdul, what do you mean will Indy folk take kindly to DC folk meddling in its internal affairs? What do you think the federal government DOES as a matter of specialty?
May 28th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Why should Obama care what Evan Bayh thinks…Bayh keeps voting with the repubs in the senate. Maybe there is a lesson being taught to Bayh. Either Bayh is a Democrat or he is a republican. He can’t be both. He just voted against Obama’s clean energy program which would have brought lots of jobs to Indiana…….
May 28th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Greg, you’re wrong….again. Bayh voted against specific amendments to the energy bill and will support it when it’s cleaned up.
Big Brother: I’ve talked to some pretty substantial national Dem fund-raising and campaign types. They share my view of Andre…in fact, they’re far less charitable. That said, he can improve, and he’s in the seat as long as he wants to be. I just thought, if he wanted to really influence things and wield power, the mayor’s office would do him much better. I didn’t say I’d support him, but I think he’d be a formidable candidate should he get in the campaign.
And if he doesn’t get in it, which is the likely turnout, whomever he supports will have a huge leg-up.
Another interesting tidbit: as for party slating, there are now about one-third less committeepersons, thanks to the consolidation of precincts. Which was long overdue, but…whoever controls that shrunken list controls slating. And lookie who’s chairman. The champion of controlled slating conventions.
I’m just sayin’…
May 28th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Abbie, this is the funniest post you have published in a long time. I am wiping the tears of laughter from my eyes. Keep it up. You great.
May 29th, 2009 at 6:37 am
Think again, the fact remains that Bayh once again voted against the Clean Energy jobs bill which is something Obama wanted. Perhaps he will vote for a weakened republicanized version of it who knows…I do know that I have received several emails from national Dems and Obama people asking me to call Bayh’s office and express displeasure with this, yet another of his anti Obama votes.
I can’t imagine why Andre would be interested in mayor. He is making a good initial impression in Congress and certainly has the ear of Obama as he endorsed Obama while the nomination was still undecided. Andre has excellent political instincts and as he gains seniority, I believe we will see him in some high profile leadership roles.
May 29th, 2009 at 7:43 am
TA. I heard that directly from a park employee but I don’t know how solid the info is.
May 29th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Think Again,
Your comment about his fundraising/campaign is spot on, but I think that’s more of a reflection of his current campaign staff than the Congressman himself. It’s very underwhelming and the DCCC folks just alienated the local folks as well.
May 29th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
I think Obama has an exaggerated sense of what his political clout will be that far into the future. Many Americans are already starting to wake up as to how this administration will attempt to rule.
If I’m wrong and the American public is still fawning over this very dangerous man we call our president, then God help Indianapolis.
May 29th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Greg–you can take this to the bank: Andre will never be in a high-profile leadership role in the House. Won’t happen. He’s doing a decent job and he is there as long as he wants to be.
I don’t know that he wants to be mayor. But he could have it if he wants it. There is still a generous amount of fear of the Center Township Dem organization, although it’s fractured. And the GOP is, well…the GOP.
I’m betting Andre will get behind someone before it gets too bloody, and that person will win.
May 29th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Kip Tew has skeletons in his closet as the former Marion County Democrat Chair. they will come out if he runs for mayor. Just you wait and see!
May 29th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
…and one of Kip Tew’s achievements as Democrat Chair was his decisively brushing off perennial candidate (and loser) Jocelyn Tandy’s frivolous law suits…
May 29th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
Andre makes his grandmother look like a Rhodes scholar. This town would never elect him mayor.
June 2nd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
We are doomed. Seriously doomed. The mayor’s office and county gop have lost everything already.The mayors office is gone in next term. The prosecutor is too. Marion county is gone for a number of years to dems. It is sad but true and party leadership has offended everybody so there is no one going to help get us back. When county gop changes most people might slowly come back but the way they act they have run people off. Look at the guy who runs it and the 3 or 4 people who support him, what a pathetic group.