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THE 7TH DISTRICT STRECH, PART ONE

I’ve been doing some homework on the race for the 7th Congressional District, mainly the mechanics of how all this is going to work. The race on the Democratic side is obviously more interesting than the Republicans because there are more characters involved. But here is how it is going to work. There are 590 precinct committeemen eligible to vote in the special Saturday caucus. However a candidate only needs a majority of the committeemen present to win and assuming all eight candidates who have been named show up, they will fight for those votes. Think of it as “political Survivor.”

The ballots are cast and the lowest vote getter is eliminated. The party will then do another round of voting and the lowest vote getter will be eliminated and so on and so on. So we could literally see eight rounds of voting on Saturday. And take note, the voting will be done on electronic voting machines which will need 30 minutes to be reset after each round of voting, so this could take a few hours. And in those 30-minute windows expect some serious lobbying to be taking place.

While I still think the dynamics inherently favor Carson, the more I talk to local Democrats the more resentment there is toward the way he is being presented by local power brokers as the “heir apparent” to his late grandmother’s seat. There are even accusations that the County Democratic organization has been using employees and other office resources to contact precinct committeemen to convince them to vote for Carson, much to the chagrin of other candidates.

I argue if Carson doesn’t get more than 40-percent of the precinct committeemen vote on the first round, he is going to have some serious issues. Because he will have to find votes from people who want someone else.

I plan to live blog from the event so check back here this weekend.

Registration starts at 8:45 a.m. and the voting begins at 10 a.m.

  • Wilson46201

    According to Jen Wagner, the voting stops when one candidate gets at least half the votes of committeepeople attending and voting. It’s very likely the winner will emerge after one or two votes…

  • arnie

    Wilson is correct. Check you sources Abdul.

  • Abdul Hakim-Shabazz

    So Wilson, who do you getting 51% of the votes of those present on the first go around?

  • Wilson46201

    … aw shucks (shuffling shoes) — dunno for sure — maybe — perhaps — André Carson? Could be? (I guess) probably

    [reticence and modesty is so not my style]

  • Terry

    Why are the Democrats forcing Carson down our throats??
    I do not think the majority of the 7th want him as their representative!

  • Wilson46201

    Terry, that’s what elections are for, aren’t they?

  • Snark

    Abdul sez: “the more I talk to local Democrats the more resentment there is toward the way he is being presented by local power brokers as the ‘heir apparent’ to his late grandmother’s seat.”

    Right on target, Abdul!

  • Vet

    Maybe Andre should force himself down his own neck?

  • Indy Bruiser

    Look for 7th District suburban Democrats to stay home on March 11th is Andre Carson wins this Saturday. Republicans have a good chance to steal this race. Actually the Democrats are posed to hand it to them.

  • Northender

    Indy Bruiser, I believe you are right. People forget that the demographics of the 7th have a white majority of 64%. If Andre is shoved down their throats look for a huge crossover in November. Ballard won with the white voters finally going to the polls and I see this same pattern unfold in November.
    The Dem presidential nominee will have little effect with such anti Andre sentiment this go around.

  • 7th District First

    Look for Woody Myers to enter the “real” race in February. He will be a formidable candidate with a campaign war chest to match.

  • Snark

    Northender sez:
    “If Andre is shoved down their throats look for a huge crossover in November.”

    Amen, brother! That applies to intelligent Seventh District residents of all races!

  • http://www.blueindiana.net Vox Populi

    I think the strategic move for disaffected Democrats if Andre is handed the nomination is to either sit out on the special election or to vote for Jon Elrod. That way, our Democratic candidates running in the May primary can’t be accused of “running against the incumbent Democrat” and Carson will be tainted as having lost a safe Democratic seat to Republicans. Even if the margin is close, say 5 points or so, that is a loss for Democrats in this almost-60% Democratic district.

  • Bob Miller

    Do we want to reward “Little Tammany Hall” ?

    Unlike the real Tammany Hall, this one has only done for itself, not for the people in its neighborhoods.

  • erin

    StreTch. Sorry to be picky, it looks weird in the title.

  • will jackson

    Saturday will be a sad day in our fine city. The pc’s are going to select Andre and it’s one of the worst moves in our city’s history. Go Rep. Mays!

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