PETERSON APPROVAL RATINGS FALL
More than half of likely voters in a new poll of the Indianapolis Mayor’s race say they will vote for someone other than incumbent Bart Peterson.
Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they want a new person in office, while 41 percent say would definitely or probably vote for the Mayor. This is a sharp drop from the Mayor’s approval rating of 58 percent last year. The poll was taken last week by Public Opinion Strategies and it surveyed 300 likely Marion County voters and has a plus or minus error of five points.
The poll also showed 64 percent of residents thought Marion County was on the wrong track and taxes and crime topped the list of voter concerns. And only 23 percent of voters say they will definitely vote for Peterson while 38 percent say the definitely vote against the Mayor.
The poll still has incumbent Mayor Peterson beating challenger Greg Ballard. Ballard is only known to 18 percent of voters; however he beats Peterson with 51 percent of the vote between voters who know both candidates.
The news also doesn’t look that great for Council Democrats. Forty-six percent of voters say they will vote for someone new on the Council, while 22 percent say they will vote for their current Council member. And more voters trust Republicans to handle the County’s rising tax issues than Democrats
Some other items of note, the poll’s respondents were 70 percent white and 23 percent black. Public Opinion Strategies (POS) conducted the poll for the Marion County Republican Party. POS also predicted wins in the past for Governor Mitch Daniels, Secretary of State Todd Rokita and Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi.
August 13th, 2007 at 7:31 am
The 23% who would definitely vote for him are the people Tully referred to as “Kool-aid drinkers”. Bart has got to go before he destroys this city.
August 13th, 2007 at 7:56 am
One of the things that surprised me when Jill Long Thompson released her poll was the release of the toplines, not just a press release. I called the campaign, and they mailed be a complete polling document.
While POS is a good polling firm, this appears to have been done (slightly) on the cheap. It is disproportionate stratified sampling, and while that isn’t a big problem (just a small one), when the stratification errors are taken in cojunction with the very small sample size, you reach a MoE or ~ +/- 7.
Let me explain, the margin of error is calculated considering the homogenetiy of the population, the confidence level and the sample size. Out of caution, statisticians typically assume that the population is completly homogeneous (remember this is on opinion). Confidence level is assumed to be at least 95%. (Some academic projects will use a confidence level of 99%, but no one will go below 95% for a credible poll.) So, using sample size to figure the margin of error (I can’t enter the formula in this box), gives the poll an MoE of +/- 7.
I’m sure the Mayor’s folks aren’t thrilled with this, but if they are still using their pollster, they’ve got good data, and this poll here isn’t great data by any means.
August 13th, 2007 at 8:32 am
CollegeProf just hit a home run.
This is not good news for Peterson, or council Democrats. But the poll was not a true snapshot. Because of its stratification.
It is clear the Mayor has taken it on the chin lately, by a long shot.
Dial in some proportion, please, Abdul…and some objectivity.
A 41-40 D/R sample no more represents this county than Barrack Obama does.
But it worked, didn’t it? They got you talking about it, and for that, I salute Tom John.
This race won’t be won solely with lots of money.
But money is way ahead of whatever’s second in the polictical game.
August 13th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Thank you Poll Watcher, you flatter me.
I realized I wanted to add one thing. I mention a confidence interval, and realized I didn’t explain it. A confidence interval of 95 percent is one that indicates the actual percentage of the population will be within the MoE of polling percentages 95 percent of the time. A 99 percent interval means the actual is within the MoE of the expected 99 percent of the time.
Just a clarification.
August 13th, 2007 at 9:07 am
Nor did the poll capture the homeless people, prostitutes, and drug addicts that PROJECT BIG VOTE always registers to abandoned homes.
August 13th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Election? HA! Good luck with getting the opportunity to actually vote with that moron Marion County Clerk Beth White.
August 13th, 2007 at 10:10 am
I think that PERCEPTION is going to be the deciding factor in the election contests come this November. Money certainly is of great worth in helping to mold perceptions, but money (or a lack thereof) won’t make or break the election.
For Bart Peterson, this poll ought to be a wake up call for his campaign staff. Instead of trolling around suburban picnics talking about the Super Bowl, the Mayor should be taking on the tough questioners toe-to-toe. Instead, they’re being dismissed and shut out, which should only serve to make them redouble their efforts at molding the perception that the Mayor is aloof and out of touch with those he swore to serve.
For Greg Ballard, this poll ought to get his staff working overtime to reinforce their perception that the Mayor has lost touch with the electorate, and that if re-elected will be taking Indianapolis down the wrong path.
August 13th, 2007 at 10:21 am
For the fake and very racist “Aaron Haith” above — do you mean Saint Rokita’s VoterID Law hasn’t put a stop to what you allege?
August 13th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Wilson 10:21am – The point entirely lost on you Wilson is that Voter-ID is irrelevant when the polls never even open and THOUSANDS are disenfranchised!
August 13th, 2007 at 11:43 am
An ID isn’t required when the poll workers, under the guidance of the Machine are told to look the other way as people who have no business voting take to the polls to re-elect Bart, Gray, et al.
August 13th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Well, it looks like the pessimistic anonytrolls are already fabricating soothing stories for themselves about the forthcoming re-election of Bart, Gray, etc…
So Saint Rokita’s Voter ID Law will be a total failure, huh? Prosecutor Brizzi will snooze through another election? What next? Requiring a Social Security number to be tattooed on everybody’s forehead to prevent voter fraud?
August 13th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Bart will win re-election precisely because it is mainly about the money. Those of us on this and other political blogs are political junkies. We make up so small a percentage of the voters and population, it’s hard to describe. Most Hoosiers do not even think about the election until the month in which it occurs.
We have people as politically active right now as ever in Indy. That’s a couple thousand people. A good start, but hardly The Masses. Even with the anger many Democratic voters may be feeling right now, is it so great that they suddenly vote ‘R’? I sincerely doubt it, especially if 82% of the people don’t even know who Ballard is.
If Ballard raises money near or equal to Peterson’s, he has a chance. Otherwise, forget it. The money will allow people to see who he is and allow him to make the case that he is in touch. You simply cannot go door-to-door in Indianapolis and meet every voter. Mass media, mainly TV, is an absolute necessity.
August 13th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
For the fake and very racist “Aaron Haith” above — do you mean Saint Rokita’s VoterID Law hasn’t put a stop to what you allege?
Posted by Wilson46201 at August 13, 2007 10:21 AM | permalink
Wilson,
Whoever said anyhthing racial? I believe he said protitutes, homeless, and drug addicts? Nope, no mention of race. Looks like you were being a racist yourself if someone mentioning those attributes makes you automatically think BLACK.
August 13th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Well Mike Kole,
If you’re right, then we can look forward to more Deputy Mayors, Liaisons, floating Chiefs, and higher taxes over the next four years. And it probably won’t come with a kiss either.
August 13th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Look folks, either vote in November or be prepared to be taken advantage of for the rest of your days in Indy. If this isn’t the time to show politicians of all stripes and colors that they are accountable to the people, the time will never come.
VOTE IN NOVEMBER. VOTE AGAINST PETERSON AND THE SELF-SERVING CITY-COUNTY COUNCIL MEMBERS (those on the police and fire departments) WHO VOTED TO INCREASE INCOME TAXES.
The time to register before November’s election is running out! If you are not a registered voter in Marion Co., register ASAP at your local BMV branch.
VOTE THEM OUT!
August 13th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
No need to worry about the Voter ID when Beth “Incompetent” White doesn’t even have the polling sites open. Certainly is one way for the Dems to control the election.
August 13th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
…as for the upcoming election. Don’t be surprised if “Constable” and scofflaw Tony Duncan enters a polling place ARMED WITH A GUN!
He does this on prior elections to intimidate.
…and don’t be surprised not only if Voter ID is ignored, but if precincts don’t open (again) now that The Machine is in control!
August 14th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Don’t be surprised if the machine is being watched by the feds and that they are all over Aaron Haith. Hard evidence already exists.
Aaron Haith runs PROJECT BIG VOTE. All the feds have to do is put surveillance on these clowns. And unlike Indy’s surveillance equipment, the feds have equipment that works.
I can’t wait to see Aaron Haith and crew in their new orange uniforms.
August 15th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Can someone tell me what Republicans will do differently and why they deserve a shot at running this city? I guess one-issue voters (taxes) are carrying the day. Forget about the update of the sewers, clean-up of White River, progress at the jail, charter schools, and all else Mayor Peterson has done with the Democrat Council.
Now, I completely agree that there are problems on our Council and in our caucus, but it’s a shame that all of this is overshadowing some true progress.
The truth is that discretionary spending by the Council and the Mayor accounts for just 3 percent of the property tax bill situation. That’s hardly the 300 percent increase that some taxpayers have received.
Mayor Peterson deserves another four years, and there are some darn good Democrats on the Council. Democrats like Jackie Nytes, Rozelle Boyd, Joanne Sanders, Mary Moriarity Adams, and several others.
August 16th, 2007 at 11:01 am
Insider, you are insane. You actually think that Peterson has done a good job this term? You mean looking the other way while the City Council commits open acts of fraud and corruption? You mean when Peterson wasted hundreds of thousands of dollars fighting an unconstitutional video game ordinance. You mean the leadership Peterson showed when the county library system was financially crippled because of the Downtown Library? How about the explosion of crime? How about forgetting to swear in the IMPD officers? How about lying about wanting a police merger during his last reelection? How about signing a stadium deal with the Colts involving slot machines without bothering to placate the concerns of the horse tracks or riverboat casinos. If you think Bart’s doing a good job, I’d hate to see what would have to occur for you to think he wasn’t…
August 28th, 2007 at 11:57 am
I am Aaron Haith and I did not post any comment on this page on August 13, 2007 or at any time prior to this writing. So, in the meantime, try to post in your own name or at the least make any post in my name at least intelligent and not disrepectful to anyperson who wishes to live and vote in Indiana.
Chicken!