What the Polls Didn’t Say
There are two new polls out concerning key races in Marion County. In the Marion County Prosecutor’s race, WTHR reports Carl Brizzi is ahead by 16 points and in the 7th Congressional District, Eric Dickerson leads Julia Carson by three points. There are a number of reasons as to why the polls say what they do, particularly since a poll released by WISH-TV showed strikingly different results.
What’s interesting though is that is the two top spots on the GOP local ticket are either tied or ahead, one could ask what this does for races further down the ballot, such as Clerk, Auditor, Recorder? If Brizzi or Dickerson have coattails it could help the rest of the ticket. One could even say the Sheriff’s race might be more compettitive than originally thought.
The conventional wisdom is that Marion County is trending more Democratic, the new polling data could sugest otherwise.
But the real poll happens Nov.7.
October 20th, 2006 at 7:37 am
Thank God for the confirmation of the inevitable. We will finally have representation in our district. Did you hear about this? Dickerson said a few weeks ago that Wal-Mart will be offering a prescription plan for $4.00 on generic drugs in selected states. He not only said it, but called Wal-Mart headquarters and asked that Indiana be included in the 14 or so states involved in the program. As a result, Indiana was included!!!!
He did this and he’s just a candidate. He’s already working for the 7th!! If he’s out doing things like this now, just think what he will do in the halls of Congress. Everyone in the 7th, regardless of party lines, benefits from this action
October 20th, 2006 at 7:43 am
The fact that two of the Eric Dickerson polls showed “strikingly different results” shows the value of polls in predicting election results.
Personally, although I’m not in the 7th district, I wouldn’t vote for either party (no personal offense meant to either candidate). I’m a conservative and I seek a party who would support smaller government, less spending, secure borders, etc. So far, neither party represents my interests, so I would vote for the most viable third party candidate - one who wouldn’t be influenced to vote party line in the interests of partisanship.
October 20th, 2006 at 8:27 am
“What’s interesting though is that is the two top spots on the GOP local ticket are either tied or ahead, one could ask what this does for races further down the ballot, such as Clerk, Auditor, Recorder?”
Nobody cares about those races. It’s only interesting to you and about 4 other people.
October 20th, 2006 at 11:20 am
Abdul, as an attorney, I’m not sure what your polling experience is.
While I’m not a “methods” guy, I do have some experience with polling, and the most important part of a sample is getting an accurate stratification. The methodology of this poll (listed landlines only) eliminates a number of people right off the bat, those without a listed landline and those without a landline. (I use just a cell phone). Secondly, I’ve heard that the poll has undersampled African Americans and oversampled Republicans.
I think this poll must be taken with a grain of salt, until WTHR releases the stratifications.
October 20th, 2006 at 12:33 pm
Are the Marion County Republicans organized enough these days to bring out their voters?
Do their poll watchers have the moxie to enforce the new ID law over likely opposition?
If yes on both, their candidates have a shot.
BTW, despite being registered as Republicans, we have received far more mailings from the Democratic State Rep. Orentlicher than from his Republican challenger Densborn. Is someone asleep at the switch?
October 20th, 2006 at 3:21 pm
I have received all the body bag mailings from Orentlicher too. His honorary campaign advisor is Julia Carson.
Orentlicher was asked at the Greenbriar Neighborhood Association about the negative image and such and rather than ANSWER the question, he used it as a platform.
In the end, the real poll is on November 7, and with under 18 days to go we will all know soon enough.
October 20th, 2006 at 3:48 pm
“The methodology of this poll (listed landlines only) eliminates a number of people right off the bat, those without a listed landline and those without a landline. (I use just a cell phone)”
I’d say that in itself doesn’t undersample anyone. 1. The number of people using cell phone only over landline is still a small niche, same with those who subscribe to VoIP services like Vonage. AT&T is still #1 in telephone service. 2. It still costs more with AT&T to have your phone number unlisted than listed.
What’s the difference in this and what’s been done in previous polls for any race?
October 21st, 2006 at 4:57 pm
Hailstone-
The primary difference is that you have to assume that unlisted/non-landline users have a propensity to vote.
Many pollsters will use selected prefix random digit dialing. Essentially, a prefix in the Indianapolis area is randomly selected, and then 4 random digits are placed behind it. The problem with this method is that it is expensive.
Hope that helps
October 23rd, 2006 at 12:50 pm
Robert Redford does not vote in Indiana’s 7th District. So why is he in a radio commercial for Julia Carson’s re-election. He doesn’t omf;uemce b;acl voters.
Andy Jacobs did not do very much to help African Americans in 30 years either, but help to create a plantation for black Democrats. Look at the condition of Center Township over the years he was in Congress. What did he do for us?
October 24th, 2006 at 4:43 am
MEDIC Neighborhood Assn. is sponsoring a Meet the Candidates Forum and Debate from 6-9 PM.
Debates will be 1/2 hour each for Center Township Trustee, Marion County Sheriff, Clerk, 7th District Congress. Other candidates for offices will be introduced from 6-6:45.
Debates will be from 7-9 PM:
Donna Edgar and Beth White, Marion County Clerk candidates have agreed to debate on Friday, 11/3/07
Crispus Attucks High School.
Steve Davis and Barry Campbell, Marion County Sheriff candidates will debate.
Eric Dickerson for 7th District and Linda Ivey for Center Township Trustee have agreed to debate their opponents Julia Carson and Carl Drummer.
No Shows:
Frank Anderson for sheriff previous commitment.
Julia Carson for Congress and Carl Drummer for Trustee, neither have responded to the invitations.
I guess they are taking the voters for granted.
October 25th, 2006 at 12:09 pm
Julia Carson, too pooped to govern.